How does luck present itself in basketball?

**billysink** · 10-27-12, 05:30 PM

Ken Pomeroy quantifies luck quite well in his statistical analysis and has quite a write up on his site somewhere. I will see if I can find it for you.

**ABanks** · 10-27-12, 05:32 PM

Oh, wow. Thanks.

**billysink** · 10-27-12, 05:53 PM

Can't find it exactly but here are some articles that give an idea and the ratings page

A Season Is Not Determined By Luck (Recap of Hofstra vs.Northeastern)

http://midmajorhoopsbb.blogspot.ca/2012/01/season-is-not-determined-by-luck-recap.html

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/andy_glockner/08/30/Holy.Cross/index.html

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http://kenpom.com/index.php?s=RankLuck

**ABanks** · 10-27-12, 06:13 PM

Thanks billysink, that is really good stuff.

**Sawyer** · 10-27-12, 08:00 PM

Giants won World series 2 years ago.
Cardinals won World series last season.
Giants are playing World Series vs Tigers.

Go figure the luck factor in baseball..

**sneak-a-peak** · 10-27-12, 09:00 PM

basketball can be very profitable with the right angle but you'll be amazed at how many games are decided ATS with a missed free throw or 2 in the final 10 seconds of the game

**Professor1215** · 10-27-12, 10:35 PM

There have been many articles written about luck and I too, have thought about trying to factor luck into a model.

But if you think about it, there is no mathematical data that can be used to predict luck. There might be ways to analyze outcomes of games that could be argued luck decided, but generally speaking, luck is a random, naturally occurring phenomenon that can not be tracked or predicted.

That being said, I believe that if you try to incorporate luck into one of your models, the only thing you can do is hurt yourself.

I believe that if you are betting to win money in the long-term and look to take advantage of the market, luck is going to win you as many games as it is going to lose. You have to remember that of all of your plays, you are going to win some big, lose some big, win some close ones and lose some close ones. The only outcomes that luck is going to play a factor in are those close ones that come down to the last call, shot, etc.

Thoughts??

**indio** · 10-27-12, 11:23 PM

You want NBA variables? When the team is on the 4rth game in 5 nights on the road, and they decided to go to the strip club after game 3 and bang escorts till 8 am. Then sleep till 1 pm, get to the arena at 5pm for a 7pm start, and lose by 25.

**billysink** · 10-28-12, 12:40 AM

Originally posted by indio

You want NBA variables? When the team is on the 4rth game in 5 nights on the road, and they decided to go to the strip club after game 3 and bang escorts till 8 am. Then sleep till 1 pm, get to the arena at 5pm for a 7pm start, and lose by 25.

Is there a stat for that?

**billysink** · 10-28-12, 12:42 AM

Originally posted by Professor1215

There have been many articles written about luck and I too, have thought about trying to factor luck into a model.

But if you think about it, there is no mathematical data that can be used to predict luck. There might be ways to analyze outcomes of games that could be argued luck decided, but generally speaking, luck is a random, naturally occurring phenomenon that can not be tracked or predicted.

That being said, I believe that if you try to incorporate luck into one of your models, the only thing you can do is hurt yourself.

I believe that if you are betting to win money in the long-term and look to take advantage of the market, luck is going to win you as many games as it is going to lose. You have to remember that of all of your plays, you are going to win some big, lose some big, win some close ones and lose some close ones. The only outcomes that luck is going to play a factor in are those close ones that come down to the last call, shot, etc.

Thoughts??

In having followed Pomeroy for years now and having used a lot of his work, I never found a niche for it. I am certain that which can be classified as luck can also be accounted for as the residual of the skills and system numbers.

**Dark Horse** · 10-28-12, 11:01 AM

Originally posted by ABanks

What would you consider to be lucky in basketball?
Here is what I have come up with so far:

Lucky: Making a higher percentage of 3 pointers in a game than normal.
Two players go for a rebound and the ball accidentally gets tipped in.

Unlucky: Having a player foul out who normally doesn't commit many fouls.

It can be tempting to assign something to luck or bad luck, when much of it could be attributed to identifiable factors that would only show up after (the added effort of) looking deeper.

The only one of your three examples that undoubtedly is lucky or unlucky is the ball that gets accidentally tipped in, but that happens so infrequently that it's pointless to try to predict or build into a model. The other two may not be luck at all.

**agharah1** · 10-28-12, 11:46 AM

To me, luck in basketball is either unusually hot 3pt shooting (ie, Seton Hall being the worst 3pt shooting team in the Big East a few years ago and dominating Cuse in the Carrier dome by 20, VCU's elite 8 win over KU a few years ago), or if the other team misses their free throws, like basically whenever Ray Allen misses more than 1.

**dbear808** · 10-28-12, 11:47 AM

Of all the major sports, basketball has the least amount of luck. A shooters touch, for example, is not luck-based. It is acquired through constant repetition and practice of good fundamentals. Finding a handicapping angle that includes luck is fruitless.

**TheMoneyShot** · 10-28-12, 01:06 PM

Originally posted by ABanks

Hey guys,

I am trying to build a basketball model but in order to do so I need to have a better understanding of how luck presents itself. I know that in football fumbles recovered have a lot to do with luck.

What would you consider to be lucky in basketball?
Here is what I have come up with so far:

Lucky: Making a higher percentage of 3 pointers in a game than normal.
Two players go for a rebound and the ball accidentally gets tipped in.

Unlucky: Having a player foul out who normally doesn't commit many fouls.

I'm sure there are a lot more, some may be subjective and some may even be supported by data/math. If anyone has any thoughts it would be greatly appreciated if you would share. Thanks!

You have notice the refs pager that goes off during a TV Timeout? The luck is the phone call that VEGAS gives that ref do they want the Under or Over to win... Call more ticky tac fouls for the over... Or... hammer the hell out of the guy NO FOUL called and play on for the under. There isn't any luck involved. Unless you have that ref in your back pocket.

**TPowell** · 10-28-12, 08:02 PM

shooting basically