Hey guys, i have been trying to figure out this NHL totals problem for a bit now and am stumped. I use Poisson which works excellent for odd number totals, like 5.5 goals. For example, I expect 5.3 goals scored total, poisson makes the over +130 under -130 for 5.5. Now this same problem with goal total of 5 makes poisson over AND tie (ie. the total is 5 or more) -155 and under (ie. total is 5 or less) -130. This math all makes sense to me, my question is how the books do it. Since their lines are dime lines, do they account for ties (or it landing on 5 total goals)
If you calculate it with out ties, this same example using sbr poisson calc would be Over +120 and under +156.
So if anyone knows how the lines are created, or how they factor ties into the totals, let me know. Any insight is appreciated!