[Chi_archie]

how much does Matter have left in the tank?

[stevenash]

Sorry Nasher, velocity is here to stay. That circle change is way more filthy when you can throw high 90s heat to go with it.

Jones's fastball hit the 90's.
Thing was at the time he had the best curveball in the game at the time.
And in the 80's 10K's per 9IP was rare, and Jones's 8.5 K's per nine was solid.

When I was a kid the best curveball thrower I ever saw was Andy Messersmith.
Mike Mussina's knuckle and overhand curveball were devastating too.

[EmpireMaker]

The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners have agreed to three-player trade. The Padres will send second baseman Adam Frazier to Seattle for left-handed reliever Ray Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).
Frazier certainly fits the mold of the type of offensive contributor that GM Jerry Dipoto tends to covet. The 29-year-old is a contact-first, well-rounded player who can player second base on a regular basis or move to the outfield. Though his defensive versatility is a plus, his bat plays best is he’s manning the keystone. Right now, that’s where he is most likely to get the bulk of his playing time. He will share the middle infield with J.P. Crawford, while Abraham Toro and Ty France will fill out the infield and Dylan Moore moves into a super utility role.

[Otters27]

Lots of nasty curves out there today. Those cutters are insane too.

The cutter is a hard pitch to master

[JMobile]

The San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners have agreed to three-player trade. The Padres will send second baseman Adam Frazier to Seattle for left-handed reliever Ray Kerr and outfielder Corey Rosier, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter).
Frazier certainly fits the mold of the type of offensive contributor that GM Jerry Dipoto tends to covet. The 29-year-old is a contact-first, well-rounded player who can player second base on a regular basis or move to the outfield. Though his defensive versatility is a plus, his bat plays best is he’s manning the keystone. Right now, that’s where he is most likely to get the bulk of his playing time. He will share the middle infield with J.P. Crawford, while Abraham Toro and Ty France will fill out the infield and Dylan Moore moves into a super utility role.

Frazier would of rot his career in San Diego honestly

[Cross]

Mets are moving the market now for sure.

[stevenash]

Frazier would of rot his career in San Diego honestly

He has redeeming qualities.
Frazier can play middle infield well, plus outfield if you need.
Hit .300 a few years ago, was an all star selection 2019.

[Otters27]

When might to expect to see Leiter in the bigs

[EmpireMaker]

Seventy games into his Major League career, Rays shortstop Wander Franco has agreed to an 11-year, $182MM contract extension. The contract also comes with a $25MM club option for the 2033 season (with a $2MM buyout) and a series of $3MM escalators based on MVP voting, so the deal’s maximum value sits at $223MM over 12 years. Franco is represented by agent Manny Paula.

Franco’s contract is both a franchise record for the Rays, topping Evan Longoria’s previous $100MM guarantee, and also a record for any player with less than one year of Major League service time. Ronald Acuna Jr.’s eight-year, $100MM contract had been the largest ever signed by a player with less than a year of service, but Franco will nearly double that sum with today’s precedent-shattering agreement.
In terms of financial breakdown, Franco will receive a $5MM bonus right off the bat. The shortstop will earn $1MM in 2022, $2MM in both 2023 and 2024, $8MM in 2025, $15MM in 2016, $22MM in 2027, and then $25MM in each of the 2028-32 seasons.
Franco would receive an extra $3MM in the event of a trade, but there isn’t any no-trade protection involved in the extension. There also aren’t any provisions related to the Rays’ plan to split time between Tampa and Montreal once the team’s lease at Tropicana Field is up after the 2027 season.
Franco, who won’t turn 21 until March, ranked as the sport’s No. 1 overall prospect in each of the past three offseasons and largely justified that hype when he debuted just months after his 20th birthday. The switch-hitter slashed .288/.347/.463 with seven home runs, 18 doubles, five triples and a pair of stolen bases through 308 plate appearances.
From July 25 to Sept. 29, Franco embarked on one of the more remarkable stretches in recent memory, reaching base in a staggering 43 consecutive games in spite of his youth. During that time, he posted a combined .329/.398/.545 batting line with more walks (9.1%) than strikeouts (8.1%). Franco only appeared in 70 games this season but was impressive enough to finish third in AL Rookie of the Year voting.
Defensively, Franco received split marks for his work at shortstop, putting up six Defensive Runs Saved, average marks per Ultimate Zone Rating and a minus-3 mark in Statcast’s Outs Above Average. However, scouting reports on him have pegged him as at least an average shortstop — if not better — in addition to touting his elite hit tool, plus power and plus speed. That generally aligns with the .331/.399./535 slash he posted in his meteoric rise through 215 minor league games. Prior to Franco’s promotion, FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen wrote that he’d been “the best player his age on the planet since he was 14 years old” and touted him as a perennial MVP candidate. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel, meanwhile, called him “plus at basically everything on a baseball field.” Take your pick of Franco scouting reports from the 2020-21 offseason and they’ll all generally be filled similar superlatives.
Because the Rays waited until late June to promote Franco, he was a veritable lock to fall shy of Super Two status under the current arbitration system (which could potentially change, depending on how collective bargaining talks play out). Franco wouldn’t have been arbitration-eligible until after the 2024 season and would’ve had to wait until the 2027-28 offseason to reach free agency. The 11-year length of the contract buys out all three of Franco’s pre-arbitration seasons — during which he’d likely have made under $1MM apiece — and all three arbitration years. He’s also surrendering control of six would-be free-agent seasons (though only five are fully guaranteed).
Some fans will recoil at the notion of guaranteeing $182MM to a player with just 70 big league games under his belt, but those 70 games largely confirmed what the industry has expected from Franco since he signed for a bonus of nearly $4MM as a 16-year-old: he looks the part of a budding superstar. And, a westward look toward San Diego shows what could happen by waiting to allow the player to further establish himself. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t sign an extension until he had accrued two years of Major League service, and his price tag ballooned to 14 years and $340MM. Franco’s price tag upon waiting would likely have extended even beyond that point and may well have become too sizable for the Rays’ typically frugal ownership.
It’s tempting to ponder just how much Franco might be “leaving on the table,” so to speak; free agent Carlos Correa has already pocketed $27MM in career salaries and is reportedly seeking a contract worth more than $300MM at the same age Franco would’ve been upon reaching free agency. Extension rumblings surrounding Juan Soto have elicited speculation of $400MM or even $500MM in total guaranteed money; Soto is 23 and has three-plus years of MLB service.
Franco would have found himself on a similar trajectory had he gone the year-to-year route, and one could certainly argue that betting on himself in hopes of setting an even more dramatic record was the more prudent path forward. That said, it’s difficult to fault anyone for accepting this type of guarantee — particularly at such a young age. Generations of Franco’s family will be financially secure because of it, and he can still take heart in knowing that he’s nearly doubled the previous precedent, thus further advancing the market for future players. Beyond that, because of his youth, Franco can still reach free agency as a 32-year-old, which is young enough to command a second substantial contract.
The possibility of “leaving money on the table” also assumes good health and continued production from Franco moving forward. Taking the extension now mitigates much of the risk associated with a career-altering injury or injuries — a danger that exists for any player. It also safeguards against Franco “merely” becoming a solid regular rather than a bona fide superstar (or, less likely, declining into a sub-par player). Promising as his beginnings were, he’d hardly be the first player to impress as a rookie before taking a few years to reach his ceiling or even stalling out entirely.
Ongoing labor talks also have to be considered. While the next collective bargaining agreement could have improved Franco’s earning power, it’s also feasible that a new CBA might have hurt him to an extent; ownership has already proposed an age-based free-agent threshold of 29.5 years, for instance, and although that particular number was a nonstarter for the players association (due to just this type of situation), the league could explore various permutations of such mechanisms. Regardless of how labor talks between MLB and the MLBPA play out, Rays president of baseball operations Erik Neander and Franco can both rest easy knowing that perhaps the most critical negotiation either will ever personally take part in has been resolved.
Any and all instances of the Rays spending money bring about the typical comments wondering how long until the player on the receiving end of the deal is traded. Such barbs are admittedly somewhat justified due to the Rays’ history of trading players — e.g. Longoria, Blake Snell, Chris Archer — in the latter stages of their extensions. But, even if that’s Franco’s ultimate fate, it’s unlikely to happen anytime soon. Extensions of this nature tend to mirror what the player would have earned absent the long-term contract; in other words, Franco may receive an up-front signing bonus, but his yearly salaries through the first six years figure are considerably lighter than they will be in the portion of his contract covering what would have been free-agent years.
In the short term, then, the Franco extension will have only minimal impact on club payroll. Tampa Bay was projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of around $76MM in 2021, and the Franco contract probably won’t push that mark up to even $80MM. That number still figures to drop a bit in the near future as the Rays contemplate potential trades and non-tenders related to an abnormally large arbitration class, but any trades or non-tenders of arb-eligible players in the coming days will be unrelated to Franco’s long-term pact.
At the end of the day, any contract of this magnitude involves some give and take for both sides. Any number of things could’ve gone wrong for Franco in the years to come, and the looming possibility of those pitfalls underscores the fact that the typically small-payroll Rays are taking on what is, by their standards, an unprecedented risk.
While many will be quick to declare “winners” and “losers” in Hot Stove transactions — be they trades, free-agent signings or contract extensions — there are also instances where a deal simply appears sensible for all sides. Franco receives a generational amount of money and retains the ability to reach free agency in his early 30s. The Rays secure control of a franchise cornerstone whom they hope and believe can be an all-time great. The players union surely approves of the precedent for players with under a year of service being moved forward so substantially.
Ultimately, Franco’s new contract contains positives for all parties involved — perhaps with the exception of Tampa Bay’s division rivals in the AL East who now have to wonder how to combat the emerging superstar into the 2030s.

[jrgum3]

He has redeeming qualities.
Frazier can play middle infield well, plus outfield if you need.
Hit .300 a few years ago, was an all star selection 2019.

Frazier is a good ballplayer that can help most clubs he's on. I just think that the Padres weren't the best fit for him and he was the most logical piece for them to move so that they could address other areas of need.

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Frazier is a good ballplayer that can help most clubs he's on. I just think that the Padres weren't the best fit for him and he was the most logical piece for them to move so that they could address other areas of need.

Agreed. I don't think he was a good fit on SD. They have a lot of depth at SS/2nd base. I'm happy to trade him and free up those funds to use elsewhere.

[Chi_archie]

Frazier is a good ballplayer that can help most clubs he's on. I just think that the Padres weren't the best fit for him and he was the most logical piece for them to move so that they could address other areas of need.

agreed, he's a nice piece

[Stallion]

Wander Franco got way too much too soon.

[JMobile]

Tampa Bay sign Corey Kluber for 1 year

[stevenash]

Marlins are interested in Castellanos.
If I were Nick and he thinks Miami can win soon, I'd sign.
They need some heavy thunder in that lineup.
I don't think Miami is close to contending yet, but they have good kids.

[BigSpoon]

Marcus Semien to the Rangers for 7 years and $175M. I wish him well as a Jays fan, glad he got paid.

[stevenash]

Marcus Semien to the Rangers for 7 years and $175M. I wish him well as a Jays fan, glad he got paid.

I missed that.
Hmmm.
Didn't think Texas were players for Semien.

Looks like the Sox are going to use that money in the budget for Robbie Ray.
I know Boston wanted both Semien and Ray.

Let me check and see who Boston has down on the farm regarding middle infielders.

[jrgum3]

Jays landed Kevin Gausman which I think is a huge signing for them. I really like Gausman even though towards the end of last season I think he wore down a little. He was still very good for the Giants and I think the Jays got themselves a good one.

[stevenash]

Jays landed Kevin Gausman which I think is a huge signing for them. I really like Gausman even though towards the end of last season I think he wore down a little. He was still very good for the Giants and I think the Jays got themselves a good one.

Yeah.
Good starters that can eat up six innings these days are a dying breed.
There were only 38 of them last year, of which maybe 30 were any good.
That number is startling when you consider there are 30 teams, which accounts for like 340 pitchers total.

10 percent of all pitchers start and average six inning per start a season.

Here's the list.

Name	Team	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
Corbin Burnes	MIL	11	5	2.43	28	167	123	7	34	234
Max Scherzer	- - -	15	4	2.46	30	179.1	119	23	36	236
Walker Buehler	LAD	16	4	2.47	33	207.2	149	19	52	212
Brandon Woodruff	MIL	9	10	2.56	30	179.1	130	18	43	211
Zack Wheeler	PHI	14	10	2.78	32	213.1	169	16	46	247
Kevin Gausman	SFG	14	6	2.81	33	192	150	20	50	227
Robbie Ray	TOR	13	7	2.84	32	193.1	150	33	52	248
Julio Urias	LAD	20	3	2.96	32	185.2	151	19	38	195
Marcus Stroman	NYM	10	13	3.02	33	179	161	17	44	158
Max Fried	ATL	14	7	3.04	28	165.2	139	15	41	158
Adam Wainwright	STL	17	7	3.05	32	206.1	168	21	50	174
Lance McCullers Jr.	HOU	13	5	3.16	28	162.1	122	13	76	185
Anthony DeSclafani	SFG	13	7	3.17	31	167.2	141	19	42	152
Sandy Alcantara	MIA	9	15	3.19	33	205.2	171	21	50	201
Gerrit Cole	NYY	16	8	3.23	30	181.1	151	24	41	243
Joe Musgrove	SDP	11	9	3.27	31	176.1	142	22	54	200
Charlie Morton	ATL	14	6	3.34	33	185.2	136	16	58	216
Wade Miley	CIN	12	7	3.37	28	163	166	17	50	125
Frankie Montas	OAK	13	9	3.37	32	187	164	20	57	207
Kyle Gibson	- - -	10	8	3.5	30	177.2	151	16	61	152
Jose Berrios	- - -	12	9	3.52	32	192	159	22	45	204
Lucas Giolito	CHW	11	9	3.53	31	178.2	145	27	52	201
Chris Flexen	SEA	14	6	3.61	31	179.2	185	19	40	125
Tyler Mahle	CIN	13	6	3.75	33	180	158	24	64	210
Nathan Eovaldi	BOS	11	9	3.75	32	182.1	182	15	35	195
Dylan Cease	CHW	13	7	3.91	32	165.2	139	20	68	226
Sean Manaea	OAK	11	10	3.91	32	179.1	179	25	41	194
Luis Castillo	CIN	8	16	3.98	33	187.2	181	19	75	192
Zack Greinke	HOU	11	6	4.11	29	168.2	162	29	36	117
Yu Darvish	SDP	8	11	4.22	30	166.1	138	28	44	199
Cole Irvin	OAK	10	15	4.24	32	178.1	195	23	42	125
Hyun-Jin Ryu	TOR	14	10	4.37	31	169	170	24	37	143
German Marquez	COL	12	11	4.4	32	180	165	21	64	176
Tyler Anderson	- - -	7	11	4.53	31	167	170	27	38	134
Aaron Nola	PHI	9	9	4.63	32	180.2	165	26	39	223
Kyle Hendricks	CHC	14	7	4.77	32	181	200	31	44	131
Jordan Lyles	TEX	9	13	5.39	30	167	186	38	53	140
Patrick Corbin	WSN	9	16	5.82	31	171.2	192	37	60	143

[stevenash]

[EmpireMaker]

TODAY: The two sides have reached an agreement on a five-year, $56MM extension, according to Craig Mish (via Twitter). The contract will become official when Alcantara passes a physical. Mish and Jordan McPherson note that the Marlins also have a $21MM club option for a sixth year, with a $2MM buyout. Alcantara receives a $1.5MM signing bonus as part of the deal.
NOVEMBER 22: The Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara are closing in on a five-year contract extension that would guarantee the CAA Sports client more than $55MM, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald (Twitter link).

Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks for months — dating back to July when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).
Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.
This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.
Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.
The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.
Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.
With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.

[jrgum3]

Looks like Mad Max is signing with the Mets. Huge get for the Mets who lost Syndergaard earlier this month to the Angels in free agency.

[Otters27]

Looks like Mad Max is signing with the Mets. Huge get for the Mets who lost Syndergaard earlier this month to the Angels in free agency.

Always a loss then a gain then a loss. See if the Mets can have a power 3

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Looks like Mad Max is signing with the Mets. Huge get for the Mets who lost Syndergaard earlier this month to the Angels in free agency.

Even with all these free agent signings, the Mets will screw it up somehow.

[BigSpoon]

Jays landed Kevin Gausman which I think is a huge signing for them. I really like Gausman even though towards the end of last season I think he wore down a little. He was still very good for the Giants and I think the Jays got themselves a good one.

The Mets offered him more dollars but he signed with the Jays anyways.

[BarkingToad]

Looks like Mad Max is signing with the Mets. Huge get for the Mets who lost Syndergaard earlier this month to the Angels in free agency.

That should help their offense, LOL

[JMobile]

Looks like Mad Max is signing with the Mets. Huge get for the Mets who lost Syndergaard earlier this month to the Angels in free agency.

Can't believe the Mets got Max. What other options do the Dodgers have to sign a starter?

[Cross]

Lol that HOF ballot has Abreu checked and not Barry Bonds, what a joke. Although he obviously took steroids, he had more talent in his little finger than Abreu.

[Cross]

Trevor Bauer trying to take credit for Max’s huge deal.

[jrgum3]

Rangers spending a lot of money this offseason signing Semien and then on top of it throwing a boat load of cash at Seager. On top of that they signed Jon Gray to address their rotation. It will be interesting to see whether all these moves will help improve the Rangers because they have been bad the last few years.

[EmpireMaker]

The Tigers are closing in on a multi-year agreement with free-agent shortstop Javier Baez, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). The Wasserman client is expected to sign for a six-year term if the contract indeed crosses the finish line, Morosi adds.

Shortstop has been a glaring need for the Tigers since the onset of free agency, with general manager Al Avila plainly stating his intentions to improve at the position not long after the season’s conclusion. While many speculated that Carlos Correa, who knows Detroit skipper AJ Hinch quite well from the pair’s time in Houston, would be the likeliest candidate to step into that role, Avila & Co. have preached a more measured approach since the offseason commenced. The Tigers already inked lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM contract early in free agency, and adding Baez to the fold would effectively satisfy multiple needs at what figures to be a fair bit less than the cost of Correa on his own.
Detroit shortstops were quite nearly the worst in Major League Baseball from an offensive standpoint in 2021, hitting a combined .201/.275/.321. The resulting 62 wRC+ (i.e. 38 percent worse than league-average production) was the second-lowest mark in the sport, leading only a tanking Pirates club in overall offensive output at the position.
The Tigers have already moved on from their leader in shortstop innings over the past few seasons, bidding adieu to Niko Goodrum after passing him through waivers unclaimed and watching him elect free agency. Baez would represent an across-the-board improvement over Goodrum, providing lights-out, frequently highlight-reel defense in addition to considerable power and baserunning skills for his position.
The 2020 campaign was a season to forget for Baez, but the end result of a roller-coaster 2021 season was a .265/.319/.494 batting line with 31 homers and 18 steals (in 23 tries) for the two-time All-Star and 2018 NL MVP runner-up. Generally speaking, Baez (who’ll turn 29 tomorrow) is a power-hitting but free-swinging shortstop whose penchant for putting the ball over the fence is at least somewhat mitigated by an anemic walk rate that typically lands him near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage. This year’s .319 OBP was actually the second-highest single-season career mark for Baez, who has drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his 3255 MLB plate appearances.
That said, it’s worth pointing out that there were some positive strides shown by Baez following a trade from the Cubs to the Mets at the July 30 deadline. After whiffing in a whopping 36.3% of his plate appearances in Chicago, Baez cut that figure to a more tolerable (albeit still too lofty) 28.5% in Queens. He also walked at a 7% clip with the Mets — a mark that’s a good bit shy of the 8.8% league average but also well north of 4.7% mark he carried throughout his years with the Cubs. After a rocky run with the Cubs in 2021, Baez finished the season on a heater and posted a composite .299/.371/.515 batting line as a Met.
Inconsistent as Baez may be at the plate, it’s hard to argue with the bottom-line results at the end of the day. Even including 2020’s woeful season, Baez is a .270/.311/.508 hitter (113 wRC+) with 102 home runs over his past 1988 plate appearances, dating back to 2018. He’s one of baseball’s premier defenders — regardless of position.
Since Opening Day 2018, Baez ranks third among all Major League players with 52 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, and his 44 Defensive Runs Saved place him ninth among 4053 defenders who’ve taken the field. While the now-former incumbent Goodrum was a solid defender in hiss own right, Baez is a game-changer with the glove who’ll serve as a pronounced improvement to the Detroit defense.
The Mets were reportedly interested in retaining Baez, who is close friends with New York shortstop Francisco Lindor, but it now seems he’ll instead head to the Motor City and serve as one of the faces of a team looking to emerge from a rebuilding cocoon and announce its return to contention in the American League Central.
Detroit has spent most of the past five years in a prolonged rebuilding effort but has managed to stockpile an enviable farm system that now leaves the team on the precipice of turning the corner. Young starters Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning will be expected to team with Rodriguez in leading the starting staff, while 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson and 2019 No. 5 overall pick Riley Greene are both viewed as top-10 leaguewide prospects and potential lineup anchors.
That blossoming young core makes it easy for Detroit, a team that has previously trotted out Opening Day payrolls north of $200MM, to spend heavily in free agency this winter. Miguel Cabrera is signed through the 2023 season, but the only player on the books beyond that point is the aforementioned Rodriguez. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $104MM payroll without Baez next season, and that’s before the likely non-tender of Matthew Boyd and his $7.3MM projected salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).
With that in mind, even if this is the last marquee move of the offseason for the Tigers — and, to be clear, there’s no indication that’s the case — the additions of Baez and Rodriguez clearly set the stage for a return to aggressive adding in Detroit. The Tigers will have one more high-end draft pick in 2022, but the goal for the team is clearly to shift into win-now mode, and the additions of both Baez and Rodriguez are notable steps in that direction. Baez has averaged a hefty 4.6 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) per season over the past four years, even including that ugly 2020 campaign, and the Tigers will count on him for more of the same as a linchpin both in the lineup and on defense as they turn the page from a rebuild the fans are all too ready to leave in the rear-view mirror.

[Chi_archie]

The Tigers are closing in on a multi-year agreement with free-agent shortstop Javier Baez, reports MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links). The Wasserman client is expected to sign for a six-year term if the contract indeed crosses the finish line, Morosi adds.

Shortstop has been a glaring need for the Tigers since the onset of free agency, with general manager Al Avila plainly stating his intentions to improve at the position not long after the season’s conclusion. While many speculated that Carlos Correa, who knows Detroit skipper AJ Hinch quite well from the pair’s time in Houston, would be the likeliest candidate to step into that role, Avila & Co. have preached a more measured approach since the offseason commenced. The Tigers already inked lefty Eduardo Rodriguez to a five-year, $77MM contract early in free agency, and adding Baez to the fold would effectively satisfy multiple needs at what figures to be a fair bit less than the cost of Correa on his own.
Detroit shortstops were quite nearly the worst in Major League Baseball from an offensive standpoint in 2021, hitting a combined .201/.275/.321. The resulting 62 wRC+ (i.e. 38 percent worse than league-average production) was the second-lowest mark in the sport, leading only a tanking Pirates club in overall offensive output at the position.
The Tigers have already moved on from their leader in shortstop innings over the past few seasons, bidding adieu to Niko Goodrum after passing him through waivers unclaimed and watching him elect free agency. Baez would represent an across-the-board improvement over Goodrum, providing lights-out, frequently highlight-reel defense in addition to considerable power and baserunning skills for his position.
The 2020 campaign was a season to forget for Baez, but the end result of a roller-coaster 2021 season was a .265/.319/.494 batting line with 31 homers and 18 steals (in 23 tries) for the two-time All-Star and 2018 NL MVP runner-up. Generally speaking, Baez (who’ll turn 29 tomorrow) is a power-hitting but free-swinging shortstop whose penchant for putting the ball over the fence is at least somewhat mitigated by an anemic walk rate that typically lands him near the bottom of the league in on-base percentage. This year’s .319 OBP was actually the second-highest single-season career mark for Baez, who has drawn a free pass in just 4.8% of his 3255 MLB plate appearances.
That said, it’s worth pointing out that there were some positive strides shown by Baez following a trade from the Cubs to the Mets at the July 30 deadline. After whiffing in a whopping 36.3% of his plate appearances in Chicago, Baez cut that figure to a more tolerable (albeit still too lofty) 28.5% in Queens. He also walked at a 7% clip with the Mets — a mark that’s a good bit shy of the 8.8% league average but also well north of 4.7% mark he carried throughout his years with the Cubs. After a rocky run with the Cubs in 2021, Baez finished the season on a heater and posted a composite .299/.371/.515 batting line as a Met.
Inconsistent as Baez may be at the plate, it’s hard to argue with the bottom-line results at the end of the day. Even including 2020’s woeful season, Baez is a .270/.311/.508 hitter (113 wRC+) with 102 home runs over his past 1988 plate appearances, dating back to 2018. He’s one of baseball’s premier defenders — regardless of position.
Since Opening Day 2018, Baez ranks third among all Major League players with 52 Outs Above Average, per Statcast, and his 44 Defensive Runs Saved place him ninth among 4053 defenders who’ve taken the field. While the now-former incumbent Goodrum was a solid defender in hiss own right, Baez is a game-changer with the glove who’ll serve as a pronounced improvement to the Detroit defense.
The Mets were reportedly interested in retaining Baez, who is close friends with New York shortstop Francisco Lindor, but it now seems he’ll instead head to the Motor City and serve as one of the faces of a team looking to emerge from a rebuilding cocoon and announce its return to contention in the American League Central.
Detroit has spent most of the past five years in a prolonged rebuilding effort but has managed to stockpile an enviable farm system that now leaves the team on the precipice of turning the corner. Young starters Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning will be expected to team with Rodriguez in leading the starting staff, while 2020 No. 1 overall pick Spencer Torkelson and 2019 No. 5 overall pick Riley Greene are both viewed as top-10 leaguewide prospects and potential lineup anchors.
That blossoming young core makes it easy for Detroit, a team that has previously trotted out Opening Day payrolls north of $200MM, to spend heavily in free agency this winter. Miguel Cabrera is signed through the 2023 season, but the only player on the books beyond that point is the aforementioned Rodriguez. Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez projects a $104MM payroll without Baez next season, and that’s before the likely non-tender of Matthew Boyd and his $7.3MM projected salary (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz).
With that in mind, even if this is the last marquee move of the offseason for the Tigers — and, to be clear, there’s no indication that’s the case — the additions of Baez and Rodriguez clearly set the stage for a return to aggressive adding in Detroit. The Tigers will have one more high-end draft pick in 2022, but the goal for the team is clearly to shift into win-now mode, and the additions of both Baez and Rodriguez are notable steps in that direction. Baez has averaged a hefty 4.6 wins above replacement (per Baseball-Reference) per season over the past four years, even including that ugly 2020 campaign, and the Tigers will count on him for more of the same as a linchpin both in the lineup and on defense as they turn the page from a rebuild the fans are all too ready to leave in the rear-view mirror.

Javy would be a nice get

[stevenash]

That should help their offense, LOL

That Mets lineup has a lot of swings and misses written all over it.

[Otters27]

That Mets lineup has a lot of swings and misses written all over it.

What happened to the contact hitter

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Tatis contract looks like a bargain compared to Seager and Lindor.