Derrick Henry among fantasy football players who will score fewer TDs in 2020

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Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.


The 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence:



2016

PLAYER 2015 TD 2016 PROJECTED TD 2016 ACTUAL TD
Doug Baldwin 14 7 7
Allen Robinson 14 8 6
Ted Ginn Jr. 10 3 4
Tavon Austin 9 4 4
Kirk Cousins 5 2 4
Tyler Eifert 13 6 (13 games) 5 (8 games)
Allen Hurns 10 6 3 (11 games)
Karlos Williams 9 2 DNP
2017

PLAYER 2016 TD 2017 PROJECTED TD 2017 ACTUAL TD
Kenny Stills 9 5 6
Davante Adams 12 8 10
Jordy Nelson 14 10 6
LeGarrette Blount 18 8 3
Tevin Coleman 11 7 8
Tyreek Hill 9 (+3 return) 5 (+1 return) 7 (+1 return)
Ezekiel Elliott 16 14 9 (10 games)
LeSean McCoy 14 9 8
Taylor Gabriel 7 4 1
Sterling Shepard 8 5 2 (11 games)
Antonio Brown 12 8 9
David Johnson 20 16 0 (1 game)
Jamison Crowder 7 4 3
Robert Turbin 8 4 1 (6 games)
Rishard Matthews 9 5 4
Latavius Murray 12 4 8
2018

PLAYER 2017 TD 2018 PROJECTED TD 2018 ACTUAL TD
DeAndre Hopkins 13 9 11
Jimmy Graham 10 8 2
Alvin Kamara 13 11 18
Todd Gurley 19 13 21
Tyler Kroft 7 2 0 (5 games)
Alshon Jeffery 9 8 6
Sammy Watkins 8 5 3
Dion Lewis 9 5 2
Chris Thompson 6 4 1 (10 games)
O.J. Howard 6 3 5 (10 games)
Duke Johnson 7 4 3
Nelson Agholor 8 5 4
Jarvis Landry 9 5 3
Austin Ekeler 5 2 6
2019

PLAYER 2018 TD 2019 PROJECTED TD 2019 ACTUAL TD
Tyler Lockett 10 6 8
Eric Ebron 14 6 3 (11 games)
Melvin Gordon 14 12 9 (11 games)
Calvin Ridley 10 7 7
Antonio Brown 15 9 1 (1 game)
Todd Gurley 21 16 14
Mike Williams 11 7 2
Kenyan Drake 9 6 8
Phillip Lindsay 10 8 7
Tyler Boyd 7 4 5
Alvin Kamara 18 14 6
Tevin Coleman 9 6 7
Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.


The 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence:



2016

PLAYER 2015 TD 2016 PROJECTED TD 2016 ACTUAL TD
Doug Baldwin 14 7 7
Allen Robinson 14 8 6
Ted Ginn Jr. 10 3 4
Tavon Austin 9 4 4
Kirk Cousins 5 2 4
Tyler Eifert 13 6 (13 games) 5 (8 games)
Allen Hurns 10 6 3 (11 games)
Karlos Williams 9 2 DNP
2017

PLAYER 2016 TD 2017 PROJECTED TD 2017 ACTUAL TD
Kenny Stills 9 5 6
Davante Adams 12 8 10
Jordy Nelson 14 10 6
LeGarrette Blount 18 8 3
Tevin Coleman 11 7 8
Tyreek Hill 9 (+3 return) 5 (+1 return) 7 (+1 return)
Ezekiel Elliott 16 14 9 (10 games)
LeSean McCoy 14 9 8
Taylor Gabriel 7 4 1
Sterling Shepard 8 5 2 (11 games)
Antonio Brown 12 8 9
David Johnson 20 16 0 (1 game)
Jamison Crowder 7 4 3
Robert Turbin 8 4 1 (6 games)
Rishard Matthews 9 5 4
Latavius Murray 12 4 8
2018

PLAYER 2017 TD 2018 PROJECTED TD 2018 ACTUAL TD
DeAndre Hopkins 13 9 11
Jimmy Graham 10 8 2
Alvin Kamara 13 11 18
Todd Gurley 19 13 21
Tyler Kroft 7 2 0 (5 games)
Alshon Jeffery 9 8 6
Sammy Watkins 8 5 3
Dion Lewis 9 5 2
Chris Thompson 6 4 1 (10 games)
O.J. Howard 6 3 5 (10 games)
Duke Johnson 7 4 3
Nelson Agholor 8 5 4
Jarvis Landry 9 5 3
Austin Ekeler 5 2 6
2019

PLAYER 2018 TD 2019 PROJECTED TD 2019 ACTUAL TD
Tyler Lockett 10 6 8
Eric Ebron 14 6 3 (11 games)
Melvin Gordon 14 12 9 (11 games)
Calvin Ridley 10 7 7
Antonio Brown 15 9 1 (1 game)
Todd Gurley 21 16 14
Mike Williams 11 7 2
Kenyan Drake 9 6 8
Phillip Lindsay 10 8 7
Tyler Boyd 7 4 5
Alvin Kamara 18 14 6
Tevin Coleman 9 6 7
There are 50 names here and, in 47 cases, the player scored fewer touchdowns the following season. That's an absurd hit rate of 94%, and all three exceptions came during a historically offensive 2018 season. Even if we cross off players who barely saw the field (David Johnson, Karlos Williams, Antonio Brown), the evidence remains extremely strong.


This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply can't sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent -- scoring is simply more about opportunity.


You want proof? Good -- I have it.


From 2007 through 2018, there were 452 instances in which a player totaled eight or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those players, a whopping 367 (81.2%) scored fewer touchdowns the very next season and the average change was a decrease of 4.2. Of the 33 instances in which a player scored 15-plus touchdowns, 32 scored fewer times the next year (average dip of 9.1). The only exception was Todd Gurley II, who improved his total from 17 in 2017 to 21 in 2018. Aaron Jones (19), Christian McCaffrey (19), Derrick Henry (18) and Mark Ingram II (15) were the only players to score 15-plus touchdowns in 2019.


RUSH/RECEIVING TDS SAMPLE FEWER TDS NEXT SEASON AVG. TD CHANGE
15+ 33 97% -9.1
14 18 89% -6.7
13 33 85% -5.0
12 44 70% -3.1
11 44 86% -5.4
10 66 83% -3.7
9 81 79% -3.0
8 133 77% -3.2
Total 452 81% -4.2
As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD). In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.


A careful examination of each player's 2019 usage below tells us that we should expect a drop in scoring production this season.


Be sure to also check out the list of players who will score more touchdowns this season. Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.


Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans
2019 TD: 18, OTD: 9.0
2020 Projection: 12


According to OTD, no player exceeded Henry's fortune in the TD department last season. In fact, among 7,362 instances of a player managing at least one touch in a season since 2007, Henry's 2019 campaign ranks as third "luckiest." Henry scored 18 times despite managing only 10 carries inside the 5 (ranked 13th). Touchdown rushes of 53, 68 and 74 will be tough to repeat, especially considering he had only four career TD runs of 20-plus yards during his first three seasons. Henry has yet to exceed a 9.0 rushing OTD or a 0.2 receiving OTD in his career, but in his defense, he has converted a terrific 15-of-20 carries from the opponent's 1-yard line.


Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers
2019 TD: 19, OTD: 10.8
2020 Projection: 12


Only Henry was more fortunate than Jones in the TD department last season, as Green Bay's lead back checks in as sixth luckiest in our aforementioned sample of 7,362 players since 2007. Jones ranked seventh in the league with 13 carries inside the opponent's 5 and scored on 11 of 19 carries within 7 yards of the end zone. Jones finished 10th among backs in rushing OTD and fifth in receiving OTD, so there's a reasonable chance he can reach double digits again this season, but we should certainly anticipate a significant dip, especially with 247-pound rookie A.J. Dillon added to the mix.


Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers
2019 TD: 19, OTD: 13.8
2020 Projection: 11


McCaffrey paced the NFL with 17 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line but was still well above his expected total. His league-high TD total of 19 was boosted by eight "low probability" touchdowns, which required rushes of 8, 15, 40, 58, 76 and 84 yards and post-catch runs of 13 and 29 yards. McCaffrey finished third in both rushing and receiving OTD among backs, so he's still a strong bet for close to a dozen touchdowns.


Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens
2019 TD: 15, OTD: 10.3
2020 Projection: 8


Ingram ranks first in rushing OTD (47.0), first in carries inside the 5 (76) and second in rushing touchdowns (49) since his breakout 2014 season. The numbers show that his rushing OTD and TD totals have aligned fairly well, and that was, once again, the case in 2019 (10 TDs, 9.2 OTD). Of course, Ingram hit a career high last season with five TD receptions (he had five in his career entering 2019), which was well above his 1.2 receiving OTD. Ingram's TD total was already a strong bet to be cut in half, and Baltimore's addition of J.K. Dobbins only increases the likelihood.


Todd Gurley II, Atlanta Falcons
2019 TD: 14, OTD: 10.2
2020 Projection: 9


Gurley easily paced the running back position in touchdowns (70), OTD (55.5) and carries inside the 5 (66) during his five seasons with the Rams. He had the unique ability to exceed his OTD in four of those five campaigns, though history shows he's unlikely to sustain that long term. Gurley will remain a workhorse in Atlanta but is unlikely to see as much goal-line work as he moves from the offense that ranked fourth in carries inside the 5 last season to a pass-heavy scheme that ranked 30th in the category.


Raheem Mostert, San Francisco 49ers
2019 TD: 10, OTD: 3.8
2020 Projection: 8


Mostert's 3.8 OTD ranked 112th and his five carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line tied for 36th last season. That's not the résumé of a player who will generally come close to 10 touchdowns. Incredibly, only two of Mostert's 10 scores came on touches inside the opponent's 10. In fact, he was outside the 10 on all 22 of his targets. You may recall that Mostert posted five rushing touchdowns during the playoffs. The results were similar, with only one coming inside the opponent's 9. A boost in playing time in a good, run-heavy scheme helps Mostert's chances of approaching double-digit scores, but he'll need a lot more volume to repeat his 2019 numbers.


Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams
2019 TD: 10, OTD: 5.7
2020 Projection: 6


We generally don't view slot receivers as touchdown machines, but that's been the name of the game for Kupp during the past two seasons. The 27-year-old underperformed a bit in the TD department as a rookie (5 TDs, 5.9 OTD), but has exploded for 16 scores despite a 8.2 OTD and nine end zone targets over the past two seasons. Kupp caught an unsustainable five of six end zone targets last season, adding post-catch runs of 1, 3, 8, 18 and 50 on the other scores.


A.J. Brown, Tennessee Titans
2019 TD: 9, OTD: 3.7
2020 Projection: 7


Brown was the "luckiest" non-running back in terms of TD production last season. The 2019 second-round pick ranked 118th in OTD, which trailed the likes of Tom Brady and Jacoby Brissett. Brown caught three of his six end zone targets, but otherwise was not targeted while within 10 yards of the end zone. His five other touchdown catches required post-catch runs of 11, 40, 44, 51 and 53 yards, and he also added a 49-yard TD run. Brown will need a huge boost in targets (he ranked 47th among WRs with 84 as a rookie) if he hopes to come close to nine scores in his second season.


Darius Slayton, New York Giants
2019 TD: 8, OTD: 3.5
2020 Projection: 5


Slayton missed the first two games of his pro career because of injury but exploded onto the scene with three two-score games during Weeks 8-14. The same size as your favorite fantasy analyst (6-foot-1, 190 pounds), New York's rookie perimeter receiver hauled in 3 of 5 end zone targets and scored on both of his other targets while within 5 yards of the end zone. His other three scores required post-catch runs of 22, 28 and 31 yards. Slayton needs a big boost in targets in Year 2 to produce a repeat performance.


Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers
2019 TD: 11, OTD: 8.5
2020 Projection: 7


Ekeler led all running backs with eight receiving touchdowns last season, which explains how a 5-foot-9, 195-pound back who has never cleared 132 carries in a season managed to reach double-digit scores. Ekeler has yet to exceed three rushing TDs, a 4.6 rushing OTD or seven carries inside the 5-yard line during his three NFL campaigns. His 3.9 receiving OTD ranked second among backs last season but was less than half of his actual output. Even with Melvin Gordon gone, Ekeler's limited role as a rusher makes him unlikely to produce much more than a half dozen scores.


Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
2019 TD: 8, OTD: 5.1
2020 Projection: 4


After underperforming in the rushing TD department in 2018 (5 TDs, 6.4 OTD on 99 carries), Watson overcorrected last season (7 TDs, 4.9 OTD on 82 carries). Toss in a random 6-yard touchdown catch and Watson was well over his head in the non-passing TD department. Watson has ranked no lower than fourth in carries and second in attempts inside the 5 each of the past two seasons, so he's still a good bet for a handful of touchdown rushes, but we should expect a much lower total compared to 2019.


Taysom Hill, New Orleans Saints
2019 TD: 7, OTD: 2.4
2020 Projection: 3


Hill's versatility makes him tough to project, but don't chase his seven scores on 46 touches from last season. Hill's lone rushing score came from 30 yards out and aligns with his 1.0 rushing OTD, but he also caught six touchdowns on 22 targets. Hill entered 2019 with two career touchdowns, and his role is unlikely to increase this season barring a Drew Brees injury.


Darren Fells, Houston Texans
2019 TD: 7, OTD: 3.7
2020 Projection: 3


The then-33-year-old Fells came out of nowhere to score seven touchdowns last season, but the long-time blocking tight end was well over his head. Fells was targeted 46 times (30th among tight ends) and his 3.7 OTD ranked 17th. Fells entered the season with 10 career touchdowns on 93 targets.


Tre'Quan Smith, New Orleans Saints
2019 TD: 5, OTD: 1.7
2020 Projection: 2


Thinking about Smith as a late-round flier after his five scores in 2019? Don't get your hopes up for a repeat performance. Smith managed only 25 targets and three end zone targets, but still managed to match his rookie-season TD total of five (he had 42 targets, a 3.6 OTD and six end zone targets that season). Smith is a potential third-year breakout sleeper, but he's a long shot as the No. 3 WR in a Saints offense that doesn't rely much on the WR position behind Michael Thomas.