It seems a bit hard to fathom, judging by the organization's success the past decade, but despite playing in the most extreme pitcher's ballpark in the major leagues, no San Francisco Giants starting pitchers show up on initial rosters in more than a small handful of ESPN standard leagues. It sure did not used to be that way! Right-hander Johnny Cueto used to be really, really good and a fantasy staple, and right-hander Jeff Samardzija certainly had his place as a strikeout option. Kevin Gausman was supposed to be a star back in his Orioles days, and Drew Smyly ... well, OK -- but he was worth rostering five years ago.
Current Giants pitchers figure to look far different in a few seasons, since they are in rebuilding mode, but when discussing X factors in today's fantasy world, well, there is a potential fit here. Cueto, for example, a star as recently as 2016, made nine reasonable starts in 2018, and even last season, when he returned from Tommy John surgery at 33, pitched well enough versus non-playoff offenses. Samardzija, a three-time fanner of 200 batters, was fortunate to earn his 3.52 ERA last season, but if he fixes his sliding K rate, he could actually earn it again. Gausman, still only 29, missed ample bats in 2019, though some of that came in relief work.
The point is: In a shortened season, fantasy managers are looking for edges; streaming starting pitching is going to be one of them, and the Giants still play in that rather large ballpark. I cannot make a case to draft any Giants hurlers -- including potential closer Tony Watson -- in a standard league, but we do need to watch them, because by the definition of an X factor, it is a player not expected to thrive, thus he is a late pick or goes undrafted. Cueto, Samardzija and Gausman, due to past success, fit this description nicely, and moving past Smyly -- I saw enough of his work with last year's Phillies -- check out lefty Tyler Anderson, too. He is not a member of the Rockies anymore!
Really, Watson fits this description for saves, too. While our focus should be on the starting pitchers, someone has to "save" the Giants wins, and Watson -- kind of the last experienced man standing in this bullpen -- closed wins out as recently as 2017 with the Pirates. Right-handers Trevor Gott and Tyler Rogers seem just as likely, perhaps, to save games -- but, again, there is no need to draft these fellows yet. Wait to see which hurler manager Gabe Kapler trusts, and then act. More on relief pitchers later in the week.
Anyway, here are other pitchers who fit a nominal description of fantasy X factor, excluding obvious rookies such as MacKenzie Gore and Nate Pearson, as well as Angels talent Shohei Ohtani, who could be just about anything. And here is my report on hitter X factors, led by Yoenis Cespedes.
Really, Watson fits this description for saves, too. While our focus should be on the starting pitchers, someone has to "save" the Giants wins, and Watson -- kind of the last experienced man standing in this bullpen -- closed wins out as recently as 2017 with the Pirates. Right-handers Trevor Gott and Tyler Rogers seem just as likely, perhaps, to save games -- but, again, there is no need to draft these fellows yet. Wait to see which hurler manager Gabe Kapler trusts, and then act. More on relief pitchers later in the week.
Anyway, here are other pitchers who fit a nominal description of fantasy X factor, excluding obvious rookies such as MacKenzie Gore and Nate Pearson, as well as Angels talent Shohei Ohtani, who could be just about anything. And here is my report on hitter X factors, led by Yoenis Cespedes.
Lance McCullers Jr., Astros: A midround selection in part due to his name -- his dad pitched in the 1980s -- the strong team he performs for and his lofty career strikeout rate, McCullers Jr. comes off his Tommy John surgery with a guaranteed rotation spot. The shortened season means innings limits go away.
Julio Urias, Dodgers: In some ways, this lefty is the NL version of McCullers. Urias missed most of 2018 and spent much of 2019 in the bullpen, again for one of the best teams in the league. See, fantasy managers would not mess with these fellows if they were Orioles. It takes a midround pick, which might overrate Urias, but the upside seems so sweet.
Garrett Richards, Padres: Here is a pitching comp to Cespedes, sans the wild boar story at least. Richards was terrific for the Angels in 2014 and 2015, and even while battling injury in recent years, he generally performed well. Now presumably healthy and sans restrictions, a strikeout pitcher gets to ply his trade half the time in an extreme pitcher's park. Again, one will not find Rockies pitchers on this list.
Mitch Keller, Pirates: Still technically a rookie because his 11 big league starts did not net him 50 innings pitched, Keller was about the unluckiest fellow around. His silly 7.13 ERA -- thanks to a ridiculous 1.048 OPS and .516 BABIP in the first inning -- came with an overall 3.18 FIP and major strikeout rate. He has a rotation spot and half his starts -- bingo -- come in a pitcher-friendly park. This feels like an obvious breakout performer, but it would be nice to choose him in a format with more bench spots, too.
Ross Stripling, Dodgers: Really, the Dodgers offer several intriguing pitchers who come at major discount in Urias, Stripling and veteran lefty Alex Wood, while rookie right-handers Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin await their opportunity. Stripling, now 30, made 36 starts the past two seasons and thrived in them but still kept losing his rotation spot, unjustly in some cases, for others. The Dodgers could also utilize him in a valuable middle innings role that enables him to piggyback wins.
Josh Lindblom, Brewers: A well-traveled journeyman before finding his way and thriving in South Korea, the right-hander returns to the majors and seemingly has a rotation spot with a contender locked up. Not too shabby. Lindblom went all analytics, focusing on spin rate and a larger catalog of pitches, and you bet I want to see how this new version of him translates.
Nathan Eovaldi, Red Sox: I think it is somewhat fair to regard Eovaldi's 2018 numbers (3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) with the same weight we do his unprintable 2019 ones, because he did not appear healthy and had elbow problems. Then again, he is hardly durable, and we might overrate his statistical upside since he has never been a dominant strikeout option.
Austin Voth, Nationals: This longtime minor leaguer returned from shoulder problems to shine in September with a 2.61 ERA over four outings, and Joe Ross' opting out of this season opens a rotation spot. Look, when in doubt, look at pitcher parks and/or good franchises. The Nationals come off a World Series win, so let us assume they have an idea what they are doing.
Freddy Peralta, Brewers: Hard to tell at this point what his role will be, but we cannot ignore the career strikeout rate of 11.6 per nine innings. Perhaps, as alluded to with Stripling, his middle relief role bears victories. In addition, and it probably means nothing, but Peralta threw a 17-strikeout no-hitter against the Phillies (of course he did) in the Out of the Park Baseball simulation a few months ago, as recognized on Baseball-Reference.com. The projections love this fellow for good reason.
Spencer Turnbull, Tigers: His is not a good team, of course, but Turnbull deserved a far better fate as a rookie. Ignore the 3-17 record. His FIP was 3.98 with a strong K rate and a proclivity to avoiding home runs. Wins are not everything.
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Fantasy baseball X factors: Pitchers ⚾
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