[BigSpoon]

Why is Cleveland blowing up there team??

They will still be competitive in 2020 even if they trade Lindor and Clevinger.

[koz-man]

Brewers extend Craig Counsell through '23 season

General manager David Stearns didn't have to do much thinking when it came to a new long-term deal for Milwaukee Brewers manager Craig Counsell.
"Both Craig and I thought this was probably an inevitability at some point," Stearns said Wednesday after announcing a three-year extension for Counsell through the 2023 season. "It was just a matter of finding a time to work through the details."
Counsell, 49, had one season remaining on his contract.
"You know this job doesn't have much security," Counsel said. "I think we've taken steps to put the franchise in a good place, and that's going to be the job moving forward -- to keep it in a good place and to keep us contenting for playoff appearances and World Series titles. That's our mission going forward, and hopefully with some stability, that helps us do that."
Hired to replace Ron Roenicke a month into the 2015 season, Counsell led the Brewers to consecutive postseason appearances for the first time in team history.

[Cross]

Counsel did a good job with this bullpen team. They are going to suck next year though. At some point starting pitching matters.

[batt33]

Giants coach Kapler will have 11 coaches on staff, with 10 of them being newcomers and the majority coming from the minor league ranks. Ron Wotus, the third base coach, is the lone holdover. talk about change..

[stevenash]

I see the Dodgers signed Jimmy Nelson.
If his shoulder is 100 percent and returns to 2017 form he can be a very nice addition to the back end of their rotation.

[JaimeMiro]

Jordan hicks is the real deal?

We'll see how he does next season

[EmpireMaker]

George Springer enters his final year of arbitration eligibility after playing out a two-year, $24MM deal that covered his 2018-19 seasons. Springer only played in 122 games last season due to a hamstring strain, but he still managed to belt 39 home runs and knock in 96 runs despite consistently batting in the leadoff spot — all while hitting .292. While being limited to 556 plate appearances could hurt an otherwise strong arbitration case, his impressive counting stats should get him a hefty raise.

Players outside their first year of arbitration eligibility are generally awarded raises on top of their prior salary and only based on the prior year of production. In general, Springer would not expect to receive different compensation than he would have based on his .265/22/71 performance in 620 plate appearances in 2018. However, cases like Springer’s can sometimes be considered as “re-slot” cases where they are paid based on career performance or at least on the two prior years that were covered under a multi-year deal.
Further complicating matters is that the salary on which Springer’s raise will be based is not all that clear. Springer received $24MM for his two-year pact, in matching installments of $12MM per season. However, he would never have earned $12MM in arbitration in 2018 (in fact, he filed for $10.5MM), and he was obviously compensated under the assumption that he would have received more than $12MM in 2019 had he gone year to year.
In cases like this, in which the player and team have both filed at the time the multi-year deal was reached, I usually assume the first year of the deal was valued at the midpoint of the team’s and player’s filing. In this case, that’d put year one of Springer’s two-year deal at $9.5MM, since the Astros filed at $8.5MM. The 2019 base salary, then, would be be treated as $14.5MM.
Based on his performance, my model estimates a $6.9MM raise, which would take Springer to $21.4MM if we use that theoretical $14.5MM sum as his base. If we look for useful comps, this seems somewhat plausible. Unfortunately, two of the players who have similar power numbers and service time both played half their games at Coors Field, inflating their statistics. Charlie Blackmon hit 37 home runs with 104 runs batted in in 2017, although his case was stronger than Springer’s in some ways because he hit .331 and racked up 725 plate appearances. That all earned him a $6.7MM raise. The following year, Nolan Arenado got an $8.25MM raise after his 38 HR and 110 RBI, while hitting .297 in 673 plate appearances.
Neither Blackmon nor Arenado looks exactly right. Arenado plays third base. Blackmon hit for higher average. Both had more plate appearances. Additionally, Blackmon was only eligible for arbitration for the third time, unlike Arenado and Springer, who had four arb-eligible years due to their status as Super Two players. Also, Blackmon and Arenado further differ because both received raises after one-year deals. We know Springer’s case to be less common, as he’s coming off a two-year contract.
Springer’s case is very arguably most similar to Josh Donaldson’s case two years ago. Donaldson put up a .270/33/78 season in 496 plate appearances and, crucially, was coming off a two-year deal in which he was paid $28.65MM. That sum was neatly allocated as $11.65MM (roughly the midpoint of his and the Blue Jays’ arbitration filings) in the first year, and $17MM the second year. Donaldson got an even $6MM raise to $23MM in his final year of arbitration. With Springer topping Donaldson in batting average, homers and RBIs at .292/39/96 in 556 plate appearances, it stands to reason that Donaldson would likely get a larger raise. Perhaps that would be similar to his $6.9MM projected raise.
On the other hand, the first year of Donaldson’s two-year pact was better than year one of Springer’s deal. Donaldson hit .284/37/99 in 700 plate appearances, compared to Springer’s .265/22/71 in 620 plate appearances. If that’s part of what is being considered, we’re comparing Donaldson’s combined .270/70/177 performance in 1196 trips to the plate against Springer’s .278/61/167 performance in 1176 plate appearances. In that case, Springer isn’t necessarily a lock to top Donaldson’s $6MM raise.
The only other remotely similar case was Todd Frazier three years ago. He was coming off a two-year deal that effectively paid him $7.5MM. He got a $4.5MM raise after hitting just .225 but with 40 HR, 98 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 666 turns at the plate. This would probably establish $4.5MM as a floor if Donaldson is not already serving as a floor at $6MM.
Overall, it seems pretty clear that the best comp for Springer is Donaldson. Springer should get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $21.4MM that my model has projected him for, albeit perhaps for reasons very different from those the model considered in his case.

[Chi_archie]

big year for George Springer

[Cross]

Springer is a freaking stud.

[ApricotSinner32]

George Springer enters his final year of arbitration eligibility after playing out a two-year, $24MM deal that covered his 2018-19 seasons. Springer only played in 122 games last season due to a hamstring strain, but he still managed to belt 39 home runs and knock in 96 runs despite consistently batting in the leadoff spot — all while hitting .292. While being limited to 556 plate appearances could hurt an otherwise strong arbitration case, his impressive counting stats should get him a hefty raise.

Players outside their first year of arbitration eligibility are generally awarded raises on top of their prior salary and only based on the prior year of production. In general, Springer would not expect to receive different compensation than he would have based on his .265/22/71 performance in 620 plate appearances in 2018. However, cases like Springer’s can sometimes be considered as “re-slot” cases where they are paid based on career performance or at least on the two prior years that were covered under a multi-year deal.
Further complicating matters is that the salary on which Springer’s raise will be based is not all that clear. Springer received $24MM for his two-year pact, in matching installments of $12MM per season. However, he would never have earned $12MM in arbitration in 2018 (in fact, he filed for $10.5MM), and he was obviously compensated under the assumption that he would have received more than $12MM in 2019 had he gone year to year.
In cases like this, in which the player and team have both filed at the time the multi-year deal was reached, I usually assume the first year of the deal was valued at the midpoint of the team’s and player’s filing. In this case, that’d put year one of Springer’s two-year deal at $9.5MM, since the Astros filed at $8.5MM. The 2019 base salary, then, would be be treated as $14.5MM.
Based on his performance, my model estimates a $6.9MM raise, which would take Springer to $21.4MM if we use that theoretical $14.5MM sum as his base. If we look for useful comps, this seems somewhat plausible. Unfortunately, two of the players who have similar power numbers and service time both played half their games at Coors Field, inflating their statistics. Charlie Blackmon hit 37 home runs with 104 runs batted in in 2017, although his case was stronger than Springer’s in some ways because he hit .331 and racked up 725 plate appearances. That all earned him a $6.7MM raise. The following year, Nolan Arenado got an $8.25MM raise after his 38 HR and 110 RBI, while hitting .297 in 673 plate appearances.
Neither Blackmon nor Arenado looks exactly right. Arenado plays third base. Blackmon hit for higher average. Both had more plate appearances. Additionally, Blackmon was only eligible for arbitration for the third time, unlike Arenado and Springer, who had four arb-eligible years due to their status as Super Two players. Also, Blackmon and Arenado further differ because both received raises after one-year deals. We know Springer’s case to be less common, as he’s coming off a two-year contract.
Springer’s case is very arguably most similar to Josh Donaldson’s case two years ago. Donaldson put up a .270/33/78 season in 496 plate appearances and, crucially, was coming off a two-year deal in which he was paid $28.65MM. That sum was neatly allocated as $11.65MM (roughly the midpoint of his and the Blue Jays’ arbitration filings) in the first year, and $17MM the second year. Donaldson got an even $6MM raise to $23MM in his final year of arbitration. With Springer topping Donaldson in batting average, homers and RBIs at .292/39/96 in 556 plate appearances, it stands to reason that Donaldson would likely get a larger raise. Perhaps that would be similar to his $6.9MM projected raise.
On the other hand, the first year of Donaldson’s two-year pact was better than year one of Springer’s deal. Donaldson hit .284/37/99 in 700 plate appearances, compared to Springer’s .265/22/71 in 620 plate appearances. If that’s part of what is being considered, we’re comparing Donaldson’s combined .270/70/177 performance in 1196 trips to the plate against Springer’s .278/61/167 performance in 1176 plate appearances. In that case, Springer isn’t necessarily a lock to top Donaldson’s $6MM raise.
The only other remotely similar case was Todd Frazier three years ago. He was coming off a two-year deal that effectively paid him $7.5MM. He got a $4.5MM raise after hitting just .225 but with 40 HR, 98 RBI and 15 stolen bases in 666 turns at the plate. This would probably establish $4.5MM as a floor if Donaldson is not already serving as a floor at $6MM.
Overall, it seems pretty clear that the best comp for Springer is Donaldson. Springer should get somewhere in the neighborhood of the $21.4MM that my model has projected him for, albeit perhaps for reasons very different from those the model considered in his case.

Nice

[stevenash]

Springer is a freaking stud.

He’s from here. (New Britain CT)
He was must see as a HS kid.
He was must see when he was playing here at UCONN.

He’s a good kid.

[BigSpoon]

Still waiting to see where Donaldson ends up and whether Betts and/or Lindor end up being traded.

[stevenash]

Still waiting to see where Donaldson ends up and whether Betts and/or Lindor end up being traded.

Lindor is an Indian for 2020.
That’s a done deal.

[koz-man]

Sources: Cardinals acquire Rays pitching prospect Matt Liberatore


The St. Louis Cardinals are acquiring pitching prospect Matt Liberatore, one of the top left-handed arms in the minor leagues, in a trade expected to send major league outfield help to the Tampa Bay Rays, sources familiar with the deal told ESPN on Thursday.

The Cardinals and Rays have been in active conversations with multiple teams as Tampa Bay tries to add outfield help and St. Louis seeks to divest itself of its surplus, according to sources with knowledge of the teams' intentions.

Liberatore, 20, is a consensus top 100 prospect in baseball and is regarded by some as the second-best left-handed prospect in the minor leagues behind San Diego's MacKenzie Gore.

Chosen with the 16th pick of the 2018 draft, Liberatore spent 2019 in the Rays' low-A affiliate with Bowling Green of the Midwest League and posted a 3.10 ERA over 78.1 innings. He struck out 76, walked 31 and allowed only two home runs.

With a farm system regarded as the best in baseball, Tampa Bay reached into its cache of prospects to supplement its major league team, which won the American League wild-card game and took the Houston Astros to a deciding fifth game in the division series.

While the return for Liberatore is not yet known, sources indicated the Rays were targeting outfield help to complement left fielder Hunter Renfroe, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and right fielder Austin Meadows.

St. Louis certainly has a number of options to fill any holes. Among the outfielders currently on their roster who fit Tampa Bay's needs: Jose Martinez, Tyler O'Neill and Randy Arozarena. Center fielders Harrison Bader and Lane Thomas are not expected to go to the Rays in the deal, according to sources.

The Cardinals also have discussed trading outfielder Dexter Fowler and still could move him in another deal, sources said, as top prospect Dylan Carlson is expected to play a significant role in St. Louis' outfield this season.

[Stallion]

Springer will be making at least 25 million next year.

[jrgum3]

big year for George Springer

He’s one of my favorite players ever since I first saw him in the Show. Big reason why the Astros turned it around so fast. He should get paid accordingly and I think he will.

[batt33]

Springer will be making at least 25 million next year.

Just hope he stays healthy....

[EmpireMaker]

January 9: The Diamondbacks have announced the signing.
January 8, 3:10pm: Rondon’s option is valued at $4MM and can increase to $5MM based on games finished, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link).
2:20pm: The D-backs have agreed to terms with right-handed reliever Hector Rondon on a one-year deal with a club option for the 2021 season, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports. Rondon, an Octagon client, will receive a $3MM guarantee that comes in the form of a $2.5MM salary and $500K buyout on the club option. The deal is pending a physical.

Rondon, 32 next month, spent the past two seasons with the Astros and has previously served as the closer for the Cubs. His two-year stint in Houston produced 119 2/3 innings of 3.46 ERA ball, and he averaged 8.6 K/9, 3.0 BB/9 and 1.1 HR/9 with a 48 percent ground-ball rate.
A larger payday for Rondon might’ve been in order had he not taken some notable steps back in 2019. The righty’s 7.1 K/9, 18.7 percent strikeout rate and 9.8 percent swinging-strike rate were the lowest marks of his seven-year big league career. And, after demonstrating pristine control with the Cubs in 2015-16, Rondon has continued to issue walks at roughly the league average rate dating back to the 2017 campaign.
That said, Rondon still averaged nearly 97 mph on his heater this past season and maintained a respectable 3.71 ERA. He’ll give the D-backs another experienced late-inning arm to pair with the likes of Archie Bradley and Andrew Chafin. Rondon is the second veteran arm added by general manager Mike Hazen and his staff this winter, as the team also signed former Brewers righty Junior Guerra to join the late-inning mix. There’s certainly still room for improvement and outside additions, but the bullpen has added a bit more stability without taking on a substantial financial risk.
With Rondon on board, Arizona current projects to have an Opening Day payroll of roughly $117MM, though additional roster machinations will almost certainly impact the final tabulation. It’s still possible that left-hander Robbie Ray could be marketed to other clubs as he enters his final season of team control, and the Diamondbacks could also continue to explore further bench and bullpen upgrades.

[JaimeMiro]

Finally Tampa getting in on the action

[Chi_archie]

He’s one of my favorite players ever since I first saw him in the Show. Big reason why the Astros turned it around so fast. He should get paid accordingly and I think he will.

yeah He'll get paid

[Otters27]

He’s from here. (New Britain CT)
He was must see as a HS kid.
He was must see when he was playing here at UCONN.

He’s a good kid.

UConn. Not necessarily known for producing MLB guys?

[stevenash]

UConn. Not necessarily known for producing MLB guys?

Actually believe it or not UCONN has.

Springer, Matt Barnes, Nick Ahmed, Charles Nagy......

[BigSpoon]

Springer will be making at least 25 million next year.

Yeah, either the Astros extend his contract or he gets paid on the open market with some other club.

[Cross]

27 million for Mookie, not too shabby.

[koz-man]

Reds' Trevor Bauer agrees to $17.5M deal to avoid arbitration


CINCINNATI -- Trevor Bauer agreed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, bypassing salary arbitration after the All-Star pitcher had a contentious hearing with Cleveland last offseason.

Bauer, acquired from the Indians in July, relished beating Cleveland in arbitration the past two offseasons but complained after last winter's hearing that Major League Baseball labor relations staff attempted "character assassination" against him.

The right-hander was awarded $13 million over the Indians' $11 million offer in 2019, a year after winning a raise to $6,525,000 against Cleveland's $5.3 million offer. Bauer donated his extra winnings in 2018 to charity in what he called "69 days of giving" -- an online campaign that leaned on sexual innuendo and a reference to marijuana to raise awareness.

Bauer said MLB labor relations department representatives attempted to use the operation to "demean my character" in the 2019 hearing.

"That kind of put a black mark on what I thought was a really well-argued case on both sides," said Bauer, an unreserved right-hander who maintains he never plans to sign a multiyear contract.


Bauer can become a free agent after the 2020 season. An All-Star in 2018, his results slipped significantly last season when he went 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA in 10 starts with the Reds. That left him 11-13 overall with a 4.48 ERA in 34 games with Cleveland and Cincinnati.

The 13 losses were a career high, and his ERA was the second highest for a full season.

Bauer was the most expensive of the Reds' potential arbitration cases. He'll be part of a rotation that's counted on to help break a streak of six straight losing seasons.

The Reds also reached one-year agreements Friday with the rest of their arbitration-eligible players: right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani ($5,975,000), reliever Michael Lorenzen ($3,725,000), catcher Curt Casali ($1,462,500) and right-hander Matt Bowman ($865,000).


Bauer trails only Joey Votto ($25 million) on the Reds' payroll this year. All-Star Sonny Gray has a $10.2 million base salary, and left-hander Wade Miley gets $6 million as part of a two-year, $15 million deal he signed with the Reds last month.

All-Star Luis Castillo made $557,500 last year and is expected to receive only a small raise.

[ApricotSinner32]

Reds' Trevor Bauer agrees to $17.5M deal to avoid arbitration


CINCINNATI -- Trevor Bauer agreed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, bypassing salary arbitration after the All-Star pitcher had a contentious hearing with Cleveland last offseason.

Bauer, acquired from the Indians in July, relished beating Cleveland in arbitration the past two offseasons but complained after last winter's hearing that Major League Baseball labor relations staff attempted "character assassination" against him.

The right-hander was awarded $13 million over the Indians' $11 million offer in 2019, a year after winning a raise to $6,525,000 against Cleveland's $5.3 million offer. Bauer donated his extra winnings in 2018 to charity in what he called "69 days of giving" -- an online campaign that leaned on sexual innuendo and a reference to marijuana to raise awareness.

Bauer said MLB labor relations department representatives attempted to use the operation to "demean my character" in the 2019 hearing.

"That kind of put a black mark on what I thought was a really well-argued case on both sides," said Bauer, an unreserved right-hander who maintains he never plans to sign a multiyear contract.


Bauer can become a free agent after the 2020 season. An All-Star in 2018, his results slipped significantly last season when he went 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA in 10 starts with the Reds. That left him 11-13 overall with a 4.48 ERA in 34 games with Cleveland and Cincinnati.

The 13 losses were a career high, and his ERA was the second highest for a full season.

Bauer was the most expensive of the Reds' potential arbitration cases. He'll be part of a rotation that's counted on to help break a streak of six straight losing seasons.

The Reds also reached one-year agreements Friday with the rest of their arbitration-eligible players: right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani ($5,975,000), reliever Michael Lorenzen ($3,725,000), catcher Curt Casali ($1,462,500) and right-hander Matt Bowman ($865,000).


Bauer trails only Joey Votto ($25 million) on the Reds' payroll this year. All-Star Sonny Gray has a $10.2 million base salary, and left-hander Wade Miley gets $6 million as part of a two-year, $15 million deal he signed with the Reds last month.

All-Star Luis Castillo made $557,500 last year and is expected to receive only a small raise.

[Stallion]

That seems like alot for Bauer.

[jrgum3]

27 million for Mookie, not too shabby.

I like Mookie good to see him get paid what he deserves by the Red Sox. I like it when big name stars stay with the team they came up with so hopefully this means the Red Sox will eventually sign a long term deal with him.

[EmpireMaker]

The Rangers have signed infielder Yadiel Rivera to a minor league contract, according to their executive vice president of communications, John Blake. The deal includes an invitation to big league spring training.
Texas will be the third MLB organization for the 27-year-old Rivera, previously a member of the Brewers and Marlins. Rivera appeared in the majors in each of the past five seasons, but he struggled mightily to make his mark, evidenced by his dismal .178/.248/.221 line with a single home run and a feckless .043 ISO over 188 plate appearances. Strikeouts have been a significant problem for Rivera, who has fallen victim to the K just under 31 percent of the time during his brief MLB action.
Although Rivera has hit better in Triple-A ball, he hasn’t exactly crushed pitching there. In 1,358 PA at the minors’ top level, Rivera has slashed .243/.280/.352 with 22 homers. Rivera did bat a fairly productive-looking .293/.310/.477 in 312 PA with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate in New Orleans last season, but his output was 16 percent below average in the offensively charged Pacific Coast League environment, according to FanGraphs’ wRC+ metric. Furthermore, Rivera’s strikeout and walk rates were abysmal. He went down on strikes at a 26 percent clip and collected walks just 1.9 percent of the time.

[Cross]

Starting pitching is not cheap, Bauer is worth every penny.

[ApricotSinner32]

Yes i'd agree cross

[Chi_archie]

Lots of moves still to be made

[BigSpoon]

Starting pitching is not cheap, Bauer is worth every penny.

Depends on which Bauer shows up, he was terrible as a Red last year. If he recaptures his All-Star Cleveland form then he is worth it.

[batt33]

Reds' Trevor Bauer agrees to $17.5M deal to avoid arbitration


CINCINNATI -- Trevor Bauer agreed to a one-year, $17.5 million deal with the Cincinnati Reds on Friday, bypassing salary arbitration after the All-Star pitcher had a contentious hearing with Cleveland last offseason.

Bauer, acquired from the Indians in July, relished beating Cleveland in arbitration the past two offseasons but complained after last winter's hearing that Major League Baseball labor relations staff attempted "character assassination" against him.

The right-hander was awarded $13 million over the Indians' $11 million offer in 2019, a year after winning a raise to $6,525,000 against Cleveland's $5.3 million offer. Bauer donated his extra winnings in 2018 to charity in what he called "69 days of giving" -- an online campaign that leaned on sexual innuendo and a reference to marijuana to raise awareness.

Bauer said MLB labor relations department representatives attempted to use the operation to "demean my character" in the 2019 hearing.

"That kind of put a black mark on what I thought was a really well-argued case on both sides," said Bauer, an unreserved right-hander who maintains he never plans to sign a multiyear contract.


Bauer can become a free agent after the 2020 season. An All-Star in 2018, his results slipped significantly last season when he went 2-5 with a 6.39 ERA in 10 starts with the Reds. That left him 11-13 overall with a 4.48 ERA in 34 games with Cleveland and Cincinnati.

The 13 losses were a career high, and his ERA was the second highest for a full season.

Bauer was the most expensive of the Reds' potential arbitration cases. He'll be part of a rotation that's counted on to help break a streak of six straight losing seasons.

The Reds also reached one-year agreements Friday with the rest of their arbitration-eligible players: right-handed starter Anthony DeSclafani ($5,975,000), reliever Michael Lorenzen ($3,725,000), catcher Curt Casali ($1,462,500) and right-hander Matt Bowman ($865,000).


Bauer trails only Joey Votto ($25 million) on the Reds' payroll this year. All-Star Sonny Gray has a $10.2 million base salary, and left-hander Wade Miley gets $6 million as part of a two-year, $15 million deal he signed with the Reds last month.

All-Star Luis Castillo made $557,500 last year and is expected to receive only a small raise.

Seems a little steep...especially how he pitched last year.

[Cross]

That is Bauer’s market, if the Reds didn’t pay him, someone else would have for sure.