Fantasy football breakouts: Kyler Murray leads list of players 🏈
Fantasy football breakouts: Kyler Murray leads list of players poised to make a jump
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"Who is this year's ____________ (enter fantasy football breakout player from last season)?"
It's one of the questions I get asked most often during the offseason.
It's not a simple question to answer, because no two scenarios are exactly alike. But there are obviously comparable players in similar situations. And, if the people want comparisons, comparisons they shall receive.
The process here was simple: I jotted down each of 2019's top breakout players and came up with a short list of players who fit a similar situation as they enter 2020. Below is analysis of each player who best fits the bill, as well as the other players who landed on the short list.
Note that this is not my way of predicting that these players will definitely break out this season. Again, it's simply the players positioned to do so as a product of landing in a similar situation to those players who exploded onto the fantasy scene last season.
Jackson emerged into a fantasy star in his second NFL season.
Over the past two seasons, we've seen both Patrick Mahomes and Jackson explode into league MVPs and the top-scoring fantasy QB in their second NFL season. So, the question is, who will follow in their footsteps in 2020? The good news is that it's not hard to identify the most likely candidate: 2019 first overall pick Murray, a man who, powered by a 93-544-4 rushing line, finished as fantasy's QB8 during an impressive rookie campaign and added DeAndre Hopkins to his arsenal during the offseason. The bad news is that, unlike Jackson and Mahomes, Murray will cost you a midround pick, as opposed to the late-round lottery ticket cost of Mahomes and Jackson. Of course, Murray's upside is enormous, so he's worth the investment.
Murray was a rookie quarterback who quickly joined the QB1 discussion.
Consider: There have been only five top-10 and seven top-14 finishes by rookie quarterbacks during the past decade and all did damage with their legs (including four-plus rushing touchdowns for each). The fewest rushing yards from that group of seven was 213 by Jameis Winston, but he required a total of 28 touchdowns and 4,042 passing yards to salvage a 13th-place finish in fantasy points. First overall pick Joe Burrow is the only rookie QB expected to start Week 1, and while he can add some value with his legs (368 rushing yards and five TDs at LSU last season), he's expected to do most of his damage from the pocket in the pros. It's unlikely that he or any of his rookie counterparts will work his way into the weekly QB1 discussion this season.
Tannehill was a veteran backup QB promoted to starter during the season who emerged as a fantasy starter.
It's very possible Newton will win the Patriots' starting gig in time for Week 1, but we shouldn't be surprised if second-year man Jarrett Stidham gets the first look. In that scenario, there's a reasonable chance Newton will be promoted to starter at some point during the season, which would certainly launch him into the QB1 discussion. Newton wasn't himself in his two 2019 starts, but he had one of his most efficient passing seasons in 2018 while finishing in the top eight in fantasy points per game for the seventh time in eight NFL seasons.
Jones and Ekeler were explosive, young RBs who converted a big volume boost into an RB1 campaign.
Drake is entering his fifth NFL season, so Arizona's transition tag recipient is a bit older than Jones and Ekeler were when "freed," but his situation is otherwise similar. Drake is averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per carry on 456 career attempts, but he has yet to eclipse 170 carries in a single season. We already saw a glimpse of what to expect from Drake in this offense in the second half of last season when he averaged 15.4 carries and 4.4 targets per game en route to top-five fantasy production. We should expect something similar for the 26-year-old during the full 2020 campaign. This season's Leonard Fournette: David Montgomery
Fournette was a post-hype RB who, despite inefficiencies, turned massive volume into a breakout season.
Regardless of how high you are on Montgomery's talent, there's no doubting that the second-year back has an extremely clear path to a massive share of his team's carries. Montgomery, who ranked 12th among all backs in touches but was 24th in fantasy points as a rookie, will defer to Tarik Cohen on passing downs, but that's basically it, with Ryan Nall next up on the depth chart. It's possible Montgomery clears 300 touches this season.
Jacobs was a first-round pick who emerged as an immediate fantasy starter as a rookie.
From 2012 to 2019, 12 running backs were drafted in the first round and seven of them finished in the top 10 in fantasy points as a rookie. Nine finished in the top 20 in touches. Edwards-Helaire was the only back selected in the first round of the 2020 draft, and the LSU product will step into arguably the league's best offense in Kansas City. Edwards-Helaire figures to be the clear lead back and a weekly must-start in fantasy, especially now that Damien Williams opted out of the 2020 season.
Sanders and Singletary were rookie RBs who started slow but eventually emerged as fantasy starters.
There are quite a few Day 2/3 running backs who could fit this description, but Swift and Vaughn stand out as the best candidates. Whereas Sanders was competing with Jordan Howard and Singletary with Frank Gore, Swift will need to overcome Kerryon Johnson in Detroit and Vaughn will need to clear Ronald Jones II at Tampa Bay. Both backs could potentially leap into 15-plus touches per game, which would position them in the RB2 mix.
Mostert wasn't drafted in most fantasy leagues, but he eventually emerged as a fantasy starter.
Harris' stock is on the rise with Sony Michel recovering from a foot injury, but the 2019 third-round pick remains an extremely cheap late-round investment. Harris, who actually played more snaps than teammate Josh Jacobs at Alabama in 2018, can contribute as a rusher and receiver. QB Tom Brady is gone and we know offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has relied heavily on a committee (James White isn't going anywhere), but if Harris works his way into 15 or so touches per game, including goal-line work, he'll be a major value at his low cost.
Godwin exploded into a weekly WR1 in his third NFL season.
One year ago, this article pegged Godwin as 2019's "JuJu Smith-Schuster," and that went even better than expected. We have a lot of candidates for a third-year breakout in 2020, but Ridley best fits the description in an Atlanta offense that is both pass-heavy and without many mouths to feed aside of Ridley, Julio Jones and perhaps Hayden Hurst and Todd Gurley II. Ridley was fantasy's WR14 prior to a Week 14 season-ending injury last season, and the former first-round pick is a strong bet for a boost in targets this season.
Parker was a former first-round pick with three-plus years of experience who shed the bust label with a breakout campaign.
Perriman didn't pan out in Baltimore, but unlike Parker, the 2015 first-round pick required a change of scenery to get his career back on track. Perriman flashed in Cleveland in 2018 prior to a big second-half explosion in Tampa last season. Perriman posted a 25-506-5 receiving line from Week 13 on and was fantasy's No. 3 WR during the span. Perriman figures to open 2020 as the Jets' top perimeter receiver, which gives him perhaps his final shot at a full-on breakout.
Gallup was a second-year WR who emerged as a weekly fantasy starter despite not topping his team's depth chart.
The Steelers' offense was very, very, very poor without Ben Roethlisberger under center last season, but that didn't stop Johnson from putting together a very respectable 59-680-5 receiving line. The 2019 third-round pick has plenty of competition for targets from JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Washington, as well as newcomers Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool, but Pittsburgh's offense has been one of the most generous to wideouts during the Roethlisberger era. Johnson has WR2 upside.
Chark was an unheralded second-year, Day 2 draft pick who emerged as a fantasy starter.
Chark and Campbell are a bit different in that Chark is a tall, thin perimeter target, whereas Campbell is small, quick and versatile. Regardless, both entered their second seasons as undervalued fantasy assets after underwhelming and/or injury-plagued rookie campaigns. Campbell touched the ball only 22 times as a rookie (Chark had 14) but is positioned as perhaps Indianapolis' No. 2 target behind T.Y. Hilton. Campbell will need to fend off the likes of Michael Pittman Jr. and Jack Doyle for targets in a run-first scheme, but the combination of talent and opportunity makes the Ohio State product a strong late-round pick.
Brown, McLaurin, Samuel and Metcalf emerged as weekly fantasy starters as rookies.
Henry Ruggs III, Jerry Jeudy, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, Justin Jefferson, Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins, Laviska Shenault Jr., K.J. Hamler, Chase Claypool and Van Jefferson. That is a complete list of wide receivers selected in the first two rounds of the 2020 draft. It's arguably the deepest class ever, and each of these receivers is positioned to compete for at least a top-three role in his respective offense. Ruggs has the easiest path to a No. 1 gig, while Jeudy and Jefferson are near locks for No. 2 jobs, though both will be working in run-first offenses. Lamb and Reagor figure to play sizable roles in high-scoring offenses. Excuse my shameless hedge, but the fact is, this is a special year and any of these receivers could emerge as fantasy starters. All should be on your radar in the late rounds of your draft. This season's Darius Slayton: Tyler Johnson
Slayton was a Day 3 draft pick who emerged as a boom/bust WR3 option.
Trying to identify a Day 3 draft pick who will explode for eight touchdowns on only 80 targets in 14 games is a nearly impossible task, but hey, deep sleepers are fun. Johnson surprisingly plummeted to the fifth round of April's draft, but the Minnesota product was very good last season. His 38% target share was tops in this year's loaded WR class, and his 3.7 yards per route run was third best, behind only the aforementioned Lamb and Higgins. Johnson has a shot at No. 3 duties in what figures to be a high-scoring, vertical pass offense.
Andrews emerged as a top fantasy TE in his second season.
The 10 best yards-per-target marks by a rookie tight end since 2007 involve the following players: Mark Andrews, Rob Gronkowski, Hunter Henry, Chris Herndon, Noah Fant, Aaron Hernandez, Zach Ertz, Jordan Reed, Jimmy Graham and George Kittle. Wow. Everyone on this list either emerged into a fantasy star or is about to get a shot at a breakout. Fant, a 2019 first-round pick, sports arguably the highest ceiling among young, breakout TE candidates. We know tight ends rarely show well in fantasy as rookies, but Fant managed a strong 43-550-3 line last season, which allowed a 16th-place finish (fifth best by a rookie TE in that 13-season span). Fant's upside is that of a perennial top-five fantasy option.
Hooper and Higbee were young, veteran TEs whose pass-catching production was unlocked en route to a pair of TE1 campaigns.
Hurst was drafted by Baltimore in the first round of the 2018 draft but quickly fell behind third-rounder Mark Andrews and worked as a situational player during his two seasons with the team. Hurst was traded to Atlanta during the offseason and will now look to follow in the footsteps of the man he is replacing (Hooper). Hooper has finished as the TE6 in fantasy each of the past two seasons and was actually TE1 prior to suffering an injury last season. Hurst will step into that same role in 2020, and as noted earlier, this pass-heavy offense doesn't have many mouths that must be fed behind Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley. Hurst has TE1 upside.
Waller was a deep sleeper who emerged into a weekly TE1.
We're digging deep on this one, but the 26-year-old Jarwin is a candidate for a fourth-year leap with Jason Witten out of the mix in Dallas. Witten was not around in 2018 when Jarwin posted an underwhelming 27-307-3 receiving line, though the then-second-year TE played more down the stretch and was fantasy's TE3 after Week 13. With Witten back, Jarwin actually played more snaps and set career-high marks in targets, catches and yardage last season. He's a deep sleeper, but Jarwin is positioned for the top gig in a good Dallas offense this season.
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Fantasy football breakouts: Kyler Murray leads list of players 🏈
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