[EmpireMaker]

• Chris Sale is only under contract through the 2019 season, and his potential future in Boston “could be the key to the entire offseason” for the Red Sox, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald writes. The Sox are sure to discuss an extension with Sale this winter, though if they don’t feel the southpaw will be staying beyond the coming season (or the team is wary of spending big money on Sale over the long term), then Mastrodonato believes landing another frontline pitcher will become an immediate priority. If the Red Sox are able to extend Sale or believe they’ll be able to re-sign him next offseason, starting pitching likely won’t be a pressing priority this winter. In my opinion, I’d guess the Red Sox would pursue some type of controllable starter regardless of what happens with Sale, given that Rick Porcello will also be a free agent next winter and Eduardo Rodriguez’s injury history makes him a bit of a question mark for 2019.
• Also from Mastrodonato’s piece, he notes that the Red Sox will be bringing Blake Swihart to Spring Training as a catcher. With Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon ahead of Swihart on the catching depth chart, the team experimented with Swihart as a utility player last season in an attempt to get him into the lineup, with unremarkable results. While Swihart will continue to get some work at multiple positions, his trade value would be maximized if he could stick behind the plate. Swihart has been the focus of trade rumors for well over a year, and the Red Sox were known to have a very high asking price in talks with other teams as of last May. Those demands seemed high at the time, given Swihart’s struggles to break through as a Major League player, and he did little to raise his stock over the rest of the season.
• The Yankees “pushed hard” to acquire infield prospect Yu Chang from the Indians when the two teams were discussing the Andrew Miller trade in the summer of 2016, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. Chang has made steady progress since, with MLB.com currently ranking him as the sixth-best prospect in the Tribe’s system following a .256/.330/.411 performance over 518 PA at Triple-A last season. It isn’t known if New York still has Chang on its radar, though with the Yankees recently showing interest in trading for one of Cleveland’s top starters, Chang could become a target again if the two clubs expand talks into a multi-player trade. Pluto also notes that other teams have called the Indians about Chang in trade discussions.
• Tuesday is the deadline for teams to set their 40-man rosters in advance of the Rule 5 Draft, and the Blue Jays are one of several teams that face losing at least one player, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi writes. With newly-acquired Tyler Thornton requiring Rule 5 protection, Toronto currently has 36 players on its 40-man, with Davidi figuring that pitching prospects Hector Perez, Patrick Murphy, and Yennsy Diaz will account for three of the four open spots. This leaves multiple Rule 5-eligible prospects vying for just one roster spot, though the Jays could also create more space with trades or releases before Tuesday’s deadline. Yangervis Solarte is a likely non-tender candidate, for instance, and there has been speculation has the Jays could part ways with former top prospect Dalton Pompey, who is out of options and seemingly buried on Toronto’s depth chart. Davidi’s piece also contains a broader overview of the challenges that teams face when they have a surplus of minor league talent at one or more positions, as a club can risk losing or overlooking someone simply due to lack of playing time, only to see that player blossom elsewhere.

[koz-man]

Astros acquire Aledmys Diaz in trade with Blue Jays

The Houston Astros acquired infielder Aledmys Diaz in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, giving up minor league pitcher Trent Thornton on Saturday.
Diaz played both at shortstop and third base for the Blue Jays last season, hitting .263 with a career-high 18 home runs, 26 doubles and 55 RBIs in 130 games. His production improved after the All-Star break, with a .290 batting average and OPS of .856 in the second half.
Prior to joining the Blue Jays, the 28-year-old Diaz played two seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a .275 career average with 42 home runs and 140 RBIs while also playing at second base and in the outfield.
"He's got some versatility, got some power and can do a lot of things," Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters. "It seems like it's an opportunity for us to improve our team. He can play short, he can play second, he can play a little bit of left, can play third. This is a guy about as versatile as any of the other guys on our roster.
"He's a good hitter, and we think he can be better. He's still coming into his prime."
Astros super-utility infielder Marwin Gonzalez is entering free agency.
Thornton, a 25-year-old right-hander, went 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 22 starts for Triple-A Fresno this season.

[ApricotSinner32]

Astros acquire Aledmys Diaz in trade with Blue Jays


The Houston Astros acquired infielder Aledmys Diaz in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, giving up minor league pitcher Trent Thornton on Saturday.
Diaz played both at shortstop and third base for the Blue Jays last season, hitting .263 with a career-high 18 home runs, 26 doubles and 55 RBIs in 130 games. His production improved after the All-Star break, with a .290 batting average and OPS of .856 in the second half.
Prior to joining the Blue Jays, the 28-year-old Diaz played two seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals. He has a .275 career average with 42 home runs and 140 RBIs while also playing at second base and in the outfield.
"He's got some versatility, got some power and can do a lot of things," Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow told reporters. "It seems like it's an opportunity for us to improve our team. He can play short, he can play second, he can play a little bit of left, can play third. This is a guy about as versatile as any of the other guys on our roster.
"He's a good hitter, and we think he can be better. He's still coming into his prime."
Astros super-utility infielder Marwin Gonzalez is entering free agency.
Thornton, a 25-year-old right-hander, went 9-8 with a 4.42 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 22 starts for Triple-A Fresno this season.

[JMobile]

Still 4 months til spring training, so long.

4 months will go by fast because of the holidays.

[Otters27]

College Hoops keeps my mind off baseball.

[BigSpoon]

Yankees acquire Seattle ace James Paxton for 3 prospects: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...spect-mariners

[EmpireMaker]

After last winter’s deep freeze, many in the game are surely wondering when the action will truly get underway this time around. We’re still awaiting a monster free agent pact, but the first blockbuster trade is now in the books. For the Mariners, sending James Paxton out for a package featuring two near-MLB pitchers was designed to open a new contention window in one or two years, GM Jerry Dipoto acknowledged today in an interview on 710 ESPN. (H/t TJ Cotterill of the Tacoma News Tribune, via Twitter.) That largely fits the prior indications that Dipoto has given, perhaps helping set the stage for the club’s remaining offseason work. Certainly, there could be quite a few more deals for the ever-active Dipoto to explore with that goal in mind. As we recently covered in breaking down the club’s offseason situation, the M’s have several other assets that could make sense as trade chips.
Now that the ice has been broken, here’s the latest trade chatter from around the game:

• In an interesting side note following tonight’s major swap, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets that the Yankees also sought to discuss Jean Segura in their talks with the Mariners. Segura has now established himself as a quality regular at short and is playing on a reasonably priced contract extension. He’d obviously help the Yanks fill in for the injured Didi Gregorius — which would presumably all but take the club out of the running for free agent star Manny Machado. Obviously, the Segura side of the talks did not progress. Whether the possibility of a deal could be revisited is not clear, but it wouldn’t be terribly surprising to see the clubs circle back.
• While the Astros had interest in Paxton, they weren’t willing to budge on including top pitching prospect Forrest Whitley to get a deal done, Morosi adds on Twitter. It’s rather unsurprising to hear that the Houston organization drew a hard line there, as the 21-year-old has one of the loftiest ceilings of any pre-MLB hurler in baseball and perhaps isn’t far from cracking the majors. Presumably the ’Stros had a different package on offer that was simply deemed inferior to the one that got the deal done. Houston GM Jeff Luhnow will no doubt move on to a series of other potential targets, as rotation improvement remains a clear need.
• Trade talks involving Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, meanwhile have seemingly yet to get going in earnest. To this point, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets, the Astros and Cardinals “have had the most meaningful discussions” of any organizations in baseball. But that’s just relative to their peers, not an indication that either club is particularly likely (let alone close) to striking a deal for one of the game’s best and steadiest offensive performers. Of course, it’s also still entirely unclear just what the D-Backs will look to do with such a key player. An extension still does not appear to be out of the question, though there have been no hints that one is in the works. Even in a trade scenario, the team will have to decide whether to try to use Goldschmidt as a vehicle to shed salary (by attaching another contract) or recoup talent.
• As they seek to make some tweaks to an increasingly expensive roster, the Indians are receiving “significant trade interest” in backstop Yan Gomes, Rosenthal tweets. It’ll be interesting to see how the market ends up valuing Gomes, who’s due $7MM in 2019 and then another $2MM in buyouts on successive options (if they aren’t exercised). That seemed a bargain when he was turning in big offensive numbers back in 2013 and 2014, but his multi-year lull left the contract seemingly turned the back end of the contract sour. Now, though, the 31-year-old is coming off of his best showing with the bat in years. In 2018, he slashed .266/.313/.449 and swatted 16 home runs in 435 plate appearances. That said, it’s far from clear whether the bump in productivity was the result of a sustainable improvement. Gomes walked at an anemic 4.8% clip and rode a .336 batting average on balls in play — though he did produce a greater hard-hit rate (38.7%) and average exit velocity (88.9%) than he ever had previously. He also set new personal high-water marks in launch angle and line-drive rate, accomplishing the latter by significantly paring down on the number of balls he put on the ground. Given his strong reputation as a defender, Gomes would seem to be quite an appealing target as a league-average hitter, so teams that find cause to believe in the bat will surely have interest.

[Cross]

I have never heard of Paxton, maybe I need to watch some AL baseball.

[jrgum3]

I have never heard of Paxton, maybe I need to watch some AL baseball.

Paxton is a stud. Nice pickup by the Yankees imo but they still need to get another starter to shore up that rotation.

[El Nino]

Segura on the Yanks would be deadly.

[cincinnatikid513]

Segura on the Yanks would be deadly.

segura to the redsox would be a nice fit at 2nd base

[JMobile]

I wish Adrian Beltre would have not retired. 21 years in the bigs.

[BigSpoon]

Adrian Beltre announces his retirement after 21 seasons. http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...ces-retirement

[koz-man]

Yankees acquire Seattle ace James Paxton for 3 prospects: http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/2...spect-mariners

He has the injury bug. I don't think he pitched more than 150 innings in any season.

Remember Kevin Brown...

[batt33]

I wish Adrian Beltre would have not retired. 21 years in the bigs.

that's a good push.... time to relax

[Cross]

Beltre seemed to get better with age for a while.

[EmpireMaker]

The Marlins announced tonight that they have acquired righty Nick Anderson from the Twins in exchange for infielder Brian Schales. To create roster space, the Marlins designated Derek Dietrich for assignment.
Bumping Dietrich from the roster will mean avoiding a significant salary for the rebuilding Marlins. MLBTR had projected a $4.8MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility. It’s still possible a trade will be worked out or that he’ll be claimed over the week to come.
The 29-year-old Dietrich has never comfortably found a defensive fit, though he has appeared at second, third, and the corner outfield and thereby offers at least hypothetical versatility. He’s valued mostly for his steady left-handed bat, which has produced solidly above-average numbers for each of the past four seasons. Most recently, he slashed .265/.330/.421 with 16 home runs in 551 plate appearances.
While he largely maintained his prior level of performance with the bat in 2018, it wasn’t Dietrich’s finest effort. His strikeout rate spiked to a career-high 25.4% while his walk rate dropped to 5.3%. That said, Dietrich was also exposed to left-handed pitching a bit more than he had been, with the resulting 34:1 K/BB mix in 106 plate appearances hardly helping the stat sheet.
Teams considering Dietrich will likely consider him as an option to plug in the lineup in various places against right-handed pitching. He could make particular sense for an American League club that intends to chop up some of its playing time at DH or even first base.
Anderson, 28, was due for Rule 5 protection and will get it from the Miami organization. He was slow to reach and progress through the professional ranks but has impressed upon reaching the upper minors. Last year, working at Triple-A, he turned in sixty frames of 3.30 ERA ball with 13.2 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9.
As for the 22-year-old Schales, he was a fourth-round pick in 2014 who topped out at the Double-A level last year. He turned in his best offensive season as a professional, slashing .258/.354/.403 with ten home runs in 490 plate appearances.

[BarkingToad]

Aledmys Diaz is a great pickup by Houston

[Chi_archie]

Rule 5 draft today

[JAKEPEAVY21]

Rule 5 draft today

I expect numerous teams to poach players from the Padres.

[BigSpoon]

He has the injury bug. I don't think he pitched more than 150 innings in any season.

Remember Kevin Brown...

Yeah, durability is the only thing holding him back from being a top 10 starter.

[cincinnatikid513]

Aledmys Diaz is a great pickup by Houston

astros need more bats would love see them get goldschmidt

[koz-man]

astros need more bats would love see them get goldschmidt

Think Goldy would be a nice fit in Houston.

[batt33]

I expect numerous teams to poach players from the Padres.

Nothing to poach from the giants...

[JMobile]

I expect numerous teams to poach players from the Padres.

Padres’ Christian Villanueva designated for assignment, to be sold to Japan.


https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2018/11...llanueva-japan

WTF!!!!!

[ApricotSinner32]

Happy thanksgiving everyone.

[El Nino]

Twins in the mix with the Stros and Cards for Goldy.

[koz-man]

Happy Bird Day

[koz-man]

The Cubs made several moves in advance of the Rule 5 draft deadline to protect players. They acquired righty Rowan Wick from San Diego for infielder Jason Vosler, claimed lefty Ian Clarkin off waivers from the White Sox and purchased the contract of lefty Justin Steele from Double-A. All 3 are now on the 40 man roster. Meanwhile, INF Jack Reinheimer was claimed by Texas. The Cubs 40 man roster is now at 39.

[cincinnatikid513]

love see astros add wilson ramos at catcher and goldschmidt that lineup would be up there with the redsox

[Chi_archie]

[QUOTE=JMobile;28193501]Padres’ Christian Villanueva designated for assignment, to be sold to Japan.


https://www.mlbdailydish.com/2018/11...llanueva-japan

WTF!!!!![/QUOTE. Japan!

[Cross]

Happy Turducken Day, let’s feast!!

[EmpireMaker]

Team Leadership
The Phillies have one of the more complicated ownership structures in the league. Current managing partner John Middleton first purchased an ownership stake in the team in 1994, acquiring additional interests in the club over time until finally reaching a plurality 48% interest, becoming manager partner in 2015. The Buck family owns the other plurality 48% interest via their Tri-Play group. Despite the fact that Middleton has been managing partner for only four years, his longtime involvement with the club as well as that of the Buck family provides solid continuity.
The front office is headed by longtime baseball man and team president, Andy MacPhail, the prior president of the Orioles and former general manager for the Cubs and Twins. Current general manager Matt Klentak enters his fourth season at the helm, still searching for his first winning season and Philadelphia’s first winning season since the 2011 club blitzed its way to 102 regular season victories. While Klentak appears to have strong support from ownership, the fourth year of a rebuild is traditionally moving time: if it’s going to work, the wins need to show up and in a big way.
Historical Payrolls
Before digging into Phillies specifics, here are a few general notes when looking at historical data:

1. Generally speaking, we’ll be using the data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, maintained by Baseball Prospectus, for our historical data.
2. Because the data comes from Cot’s and not from a meticulously detailed historical record of internal, proprietary information maintained by individual teams, the figures cited here will tend to be annual salaries plus prorated bonus amounts for each year. This is not how most Major League free agency contracts pay out: the various bonuses paid to players are often paid at specified times and not ratably over the course of deals. Nevertheless, using the data from Cot’s will help provide a strong estimate.
3. Deferrals are difficult to capture. For example, the Nationals owe Max Scherzer a $35 million salary in 2019…but they won’t pay him a penny of his base salary for 2019 until 2022 (he does receive a $15 million portion of his signing bonus next year). Because of the difficulty in capturing deferrals, I’ll use something of an arbitrary cutoff, only factoring them into the numbers when they figure to have a significant impact on team spending, as is the case with the Nationals and Orioles, for example, given a bevy of deferred obligations, but as is likely not the case with the Rockies who owe only a relatively small amount to Todd Helton into the future.
4. There are two primary considerations in examining historical payrolls: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both.

With those housekeeping items out of the way, let’s dig in on what the Phillies have actually done in recent years.
Defining “recent” can be tricky. Changes in ownership, competitive windows, and market forces can yield wildly different payrolls over time. As a result, we’ll focus on a 15-year span in this series, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership. Here is what the Phillies have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

The Phillies payroll history tells a compelling and clean history of the club over the past decade and a half. They emerged in the mid-2000s as a young team supplemented by some expensive veterans, got extraordinarily expensive at the end of the 2000s and beginning of the 2010s as the core reached its peak earning years, endured some bloated payrolls despite meager win totals as the 2010s went on, and kept payroll to a minimum as a rebuild began. The Phillies carried a top-six leaguewide payroll each year from 2009-14 before tumbling to be among the 10 lowest payrolls in each of the past three seasons, a truly remarkable swing.
Philadelphia has not been a franchise to push the boundaries in the amateur market either, eschewing the big-bonus deals given to the likes of Latino amateurs Yoan Moncada (Red Sox) and Yadier Alvarez (Dodgers), among many others, by other big-market ball clubs. As such, the Major League payroll is a strong indication of true spending capacity for the team.
Future Liabilities
Some teams are loaded up with future guaranteed money, significantly hampering their ability to commit significant dollars to free agent targets. We’ll address teams like the Cubs and Rockies later in this series.
Other teams find themselves with barren future guarantees. We’ll spend time discussing the Twins and White Sox later as well.
The Phillies find themselves largely in the middle space of teams with regard to future commitments. Here is a look at their future guarantees with the powder blue highlight indicative of a player option whereas the peach indicates a club option. Note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus.

The future commitments are not exactly staggering. We’ll start at the bottom of the list. Kendrick’s $5 million in 2019 is the only deferral on Philadelphia’s chart, and it obviously shouldn’t impact future spending. Kingery’s extension basically guarantees him salaries commensurate with that of an above-average regular throughout what would have been his arbitration years with the 2024-26 options reflecting discounts over free agent salaries for a similarly effective player. If he turns out to be dead weight going forward (unlikely), the commitment remains relatively meager: $21.75 million through 2023, including the $1 million buyout of his 2024 option. That’s not breaking the bank and could provide strong value. Herrera is quite similar, just a few years further along the way; Herrera also figures to bounce back from poor BABIP luck in 2018, a year in which his defense also failed the metrics for the first time. Hunter and Neshek provide short-term guarantees with Neshek’s option in 2020 serving solely as a value play with minimal downside.
Instead, the big numbers to focus on here are Santana and Arrieta. Because Santana’s contract featured a significant signing bonus ($10 million), his future guarantee is both closer to approximating his actual value than it otherwise would be and easier to fit into a ballooning payroll, should that be the case. Nevertheless, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic recently reported that the Phillies are aggressively shopping Santana, hoping to move his salary while opening up a defensive home for young (and cheap) slugger Rhys Hoskins.
Arrieta, on the other hand, has a contract structure that functions as a real wild card thanks to its unique language and Arrieta’s recent production. Arrieta earned $30 million in 2018, he gets $25 million in 2019, and then the chaos begins. Arrieta may opt out of his contract following the 2019 season, forfeiting a $20 million guarantee in the process. However, the Phillies may preempt the opt-out clause by exercising their club option on a two-year, $40 million extension covering 2021-22, Arrieta’s age-35 and age-36 seasons. The club option years may increase to a total of $50 million based on Arrieta hitting an unknown innings pitched threshold over 2018-19*, but that number is likely to be quite high meaning that Arrieta’s 172 2/3 innings from 2018 likely foreclosed the possibility of hitting that escalator.
*=Editor’s Note: MLBTR has since learned that the escalators are based on games started as opposed to innings pitched. By starting 31 games in 2018, Arrieta has boosted the base salary in both club option seasons by $2.5MM apiece, making the combined value of those seasons $45MM. He’d boost each by $1MM with 28 starts in 2019, plus another $500K each for starts 29, 30 and 31.
The Arrieta decision appears fascinating for both player and club. Arrieta is projected for another season of being a roughly league-average starting pitcher who throws about 180 innings. If he performs at such a rate, he has a strong incentive to opt out of his contract as the market will likely yield something in the neighborhood of $40-50 million on a multi-year guarantee for that production. On the other hand, the Phillies have an incentive to keep him around for that production but it isn’t so strong as to risk buying Arrieta’s mid-30s at the rate of $60 million over three years. Unless Arrieta erupts for another Cy Young-caliber season or melts down due to injury or ineffectiveness in 2019, the parties appear headed for a November 2019 staredown regarding their respective decisions.
Nevertheless, among the names listed above, the Phillies won’t be hamstrung due to their future guarantees.
Moving to arbitration, the Phillies feature some significant likely expenditures, particularly as ace Aaron Nola and slugging third baseman Maikel Franco age through raises. Franco may represent a tough non-tender decision in future years if he continues to struggle getting on base, but for now, he has age, power, and pedigree on his side, justifying his $5.1 million figure.

It is overwhelmingly likely that Bour is non-tendered or traded given the presence of Santana and Hoskins. Altherr and Garcia could also be non-tendered, though taking them out of the salary table results in relatively little change to spending from a team-wide perspective.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
This will likely come as little surprise: despite clamoring for continued financial flexibility into the future, Klentak admitted that the Phillies have the wherewithal to make a significant addition to payroll in 2019. Addressing the media at the general manager meetings in early November, Klentak stated, “It’s a pretty bad feeling to go into an offseason knowing that you have things you need to address and not having the financial resources to do it because your money is tied up in players. I don’t think we ever want to put ourselves in that position. But some players are going to demand more than three-year contracts, and we have to be open to that. If it makes sense, we can do it. This is a franchise that carried big payrolls for a long, long time. We will likely get back to that again.”
Middleton provided a similar directive from ownership last offseason, offering that, , “[y]eah, I think we’re close. They [the front office] came to us with a budget, and we said, ’Guys, if you want to put that number in for the budget, that’s fine, but don’t live with that. If something comes up, and it breaks the bank relative to the budget, and you don’t pursue it, we’re going to be upset.’ And they know that.” In an era where ownership frequently addresses the need to cut costs and operate efficiently, such an admission from Middleton is startling, even if it occurred nearly a year ago.
There is one final consideration that requires mention here: attendance. The Phillies regularly sported attendance figures just shy of two millions visitors each year until they opened Citizens Bank Park in 2004. Attendance figures ballooned to 3.25 million that year, dipping to about 2.7 million in each of 2005 and 2006 before climbing over the three million threshold again in 2007 and staying there through 2013, peaking at 3.777 million in 2010. From 2014 onward, however, attendance has tumbled back to the 1.8 million to 2.4 million territory.
Are the Phillies a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
For some teams, this will be a really interesting examination. For the Phillies, it isn’t: they’re definitely players for Harper and Machado, and from a purely financial perspective, it’s within the realm of possibility that they could be contenders to sign both young stars. That said, there has been no indication to date that ownership or management is mulling such an unprecedented dual pursuit of both talents.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
It’s worth providing what is likely an obvious disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.
Nevertheless, there are numerous reasons to expect the Phillies to spend and to spend big this winter. Between Nola, Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Zach Eflin, and Arrieta, the Phillies already have a cheap, controllable playoff rotation in-house before considering possible contributions from bounce-back candidate Jerad Eickhoff and the late-season prospect arrivals of the much-hyped Sixto Sanchez and Adonis Medina.
The position player talent, however, is another story. Philadelphia’s team-wide wRC+ of 91 last year ranked 21st in baseball, narrowly ahead of the lowly Rangers and Royals. For a team looking to make the jump to postseason contention, the Phillies are in desperate need of an offensive jolt and it isn’t coming from the farm unless 2017 top pick outfielder Adam Haseley finds a way to bring his plus on-base skills up from Double-A despite a low-power profile.
Taken in the aggregate, the above shows that the Phillies:

1. have a significant need for an impact bat or two,
2. can afford to stick that bat (or bats) at just about any defensive position outside of first base,
3. have traditionally carried significantly weightier payrolls than they have in recent years,
4. possess an ownership group and front office ready to take the plunge into big-spending territory,
5. feature a roster loaded with young talent that is traditionally supplemented by veteran talent for winners, and
6. have a front office that needs to win now to stick around.

Add it all up and the Phillies are going to spend and spend big. Whether through free agency or the absorption of significant liabilities on the trade market, payroll is going to climb in a meaningful way. It’s unlikely that payroll reaches the heights of the earlier part of this decade ($170 million plus) in one year as that type of one-year spending jump is a rarity, but I expect that Philadelphia will get close. The projections below assume that Bour is non-tendered/traded and that Franco is shipped out should the Phillies add Machado to take his job. Things could get significantly more interesting if the Phillies succeed in their quest to ship out Santana and perhaps Hernandez, utilizing Kingery and J.P. Crawford up the middle. The available space could grow in a big way if Klentak chooses to go that route. The below assumes that both Santana and Hernandez stay.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $155-165 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $52.25 million to $62.25 million

[JMobile]

Machado will go with Phillies.

[EmpireMaker]

Team Leadership
Unlike the rival Dodgers, Angels ownership has been a pillar of stability since advertising magnate Arte Moreno purchased the club in April 2003. Moreno is perhaps best known for embarking on an aggressive marketing strategy after taking control, rebranding a club that had been known as the California or Anaheim Angels since 1965 as the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. After carrying that name for a decade and surviving lawsuits from the City of Anaheim regarding the rebranding, the club finally reverted to its original name in 2016: the Los Angeles Angels.
It’s difficult to argue with the results. While Moreno purchased the team for $180 million in 2003, Forbes projected that team value had increased tenfold in the 15 years that followed, reaching $1.8 billion as of April 2018.
The baseball side of the operation is headed by a model of persistence, general manager Billy Eppler. While working as assistant general manager under Brian Cashman with the Yankees, Eppler interviewed for the Angels general manager job in 2011, losing out to Jerry Dipoto. However, when Dipoto resigned during the 2015 season due to a rift with manager Mike Scioscia, Eppler leaped at the opportunity to return home to Southern California and secured the Angels job.
Historical Payrolls
Before hitting the numbers, please recall that we use data from Cot’s Baseball Contracts, we’ll use average annual value (“AAV”) on historical deals but actual cash for 2019 and beyond, and deferrals will be reflected where appropriate. And, of course, the value of examining historical payrolls is twofold: they show us either what type of payroll a team’s market can support or how significantly a given ownership group is willing to spend. In the most useful cases, they show us both. We’ll focus on a 15-year span for the Angels, covering 2005-18 for historical data as a means to understanding year 15: 2019. We’ll also use Opening Day payrolls as those better approximate expected spending by ownership.
Using this time frame works well for the Angels as it captures nearly all of Moreno’s run of ownership. After years of spending like a mid-market club, Moreno boosted the Angels to top-10 spending during his first full season in 2004 and they have remained there ever since. Here is what the Angels have spent in the prior 14 seasons:

Angels spending spiked dramatically under Moreno’s first decade of ownership, more than doubling the spending levels employed by the Walt Disney Company during their brief period of ownership prior to Moreno. However, after reaching $151.4 million in 2012, the spending rate has largely plateaued with remarkable consistency over the last three seasons.
The Angels have largely eschewed massive commitments in the amateur sphere. This is likely due in large part to the club being burned on their $8 million deal with Cuban infielder Roberto Baldoquin. Signed in January 2015, the 24-year-old Baldoquin has a putrid wRC+ of 72 for his minor league career. He is yet to reach Triple-A, let alone the Major Leagues. Yet because of the size of the signing bonus that the team gave Baldoquin, the Angels found themselves in the international amateur penalty box for the next two signing cycles, severely limiting their ability to swim with the big fish internationally. Accordingly, their Major League spending is an excellent indicator of total spending.
Future Liabilities
Unlike some other big-market clubs that have handed out significant dollars while retaining salary sheet flexibility, the Angels are largely wedded to their big contracts with five eight-figure AAV contracts extending through at least 2020.
Here is a look at their future guarantees with the peach highlight indicative of a club option for Kole Calhoun. As mentioned above, note that the numbers shown on here are cash payments by year, not the salary plus the prorated amount of any bonus. The AAV column captures the player’s luxury tax number.

There are some seriously significant numbers here. While it should start with the all-world Trout, we instead begin with the final three years on what quickly became an albatross deal for Albert Pujols. The Angels now owe Pujols “just” $87 million for his final three seasons, pushing them closer to a time in which his contract won’t all-but-guarantee him significant playing time. Perhaps the need to use Shohei Ohtani as a designated hitter in his return from elbow surgery will push Pujols toward more time on the bench, where he should be at this stage in his career. Unfortunately, the payments to Pujols won’t stop just because he stops playing: Pujols will receive a 10-year, $10 million personal services contract following the completion of his career. I presume that he will retire following his 2021 guarantee.
The other two numbers that jump off the page are the commitments to outfielders Trout and Justin Upton. Both players provided the Angels with good production in 2018 — OK, Trout was a hair better than “good” — so it comes as no surprise that they top the payroll spreadsheet. Both talents figure to occupy core lineup locations throughout their deals.
A pair of infielders follow as Andrelton Simmons and his elite glove come with two more years of below-market control while Zack Cozart will look to rebound after a rough debut season in Anaheim. Neither guarantee is terribly significant, and if the Angels need to move money at some point, I expect that Cozart would be a good starting point.
Finally, we reach Calhoun. The right fielder followed three consecutive above-average seasons from 2014-16 with a solid year in 2017 before slipping all the way to replacement level in 2018. If the Angels find themselves wanting to move salary to make another acquisition, Calhoun would seem to be a logical candidate to find a new home. Ken Rosenthal hears the same.
Moving to arbitration, the Angels feature only modest and even genuinely low projected salaries. Factor in that Matt Shoemaker may be non-tendered, and the Angels figure to allot a comparatively small amount of their total payroll to arbitration-eligible talent. Here are the arbitration statuses (salary projections by MLBTR and Matt Swartz):

In addition to Shoemaker, JC Ramirez is a possible non-tender candidate. It’s also possible the pitchers agree to contracts south of what arbitration would be expected to provide.
What Does Team Leadership Have to Say?
Simply put, neither Moreno nor Eppler has had much to say recently about spending, so we find ourselves looking to prior offseasons for guidance. Last winter, Moreno commented that the Angels lost money in 2016 and 2017, yet it didn’t stop him from authorizing a similar payroll in 2018. He hasn’t imposed any austerity measures during his ownership tenure, so that jives well with what he said last year.
Are the Angels a Player for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado?
As fun as it would be to see Harper and Trout share the outfield or to see Machado and Simmons vacuum up every ball hit to the left side of the infield, it’s tough to see a fit for either young star here. A look through the Angels roster shows some strong position player talent and a handful of good, youngish starting pitchers. Unfortunately, the best starting pitching in question — Andrew Heaney, Tyler Skaggs, and Shohei Ohtani — all come with significant current and/or recent injuries. Los Angeles does have young righty Jaime Barria around, but he looks more like a good back-end option than an impact starter for a contender. Expect to see the Angels focus their spending efforts on an arm or two.
What Will the 2019 Payroll Be?
The standard disclaimer: ownership and management knows the actual budget whereas we’re focusing on historical data and other relevant factors to project future spending in the immediate and more distant years to come.
The Angels’ payroll has been remarkably consistent over the years. Despite Moreno’s spending increases during his ownership tenure, they have all been of the gradual variety with the sole considerable jump that was unaccompanied by a corresponding dip in the prior year occurring in 2011 when spending spiked $20.7 million in one year as a result of the Vernon Wells acquisition.
With all of that said…
Moreno is the one current owner in Major League Baseball who appears likely to go the way of Mike Ilitch, incurring significant losses to keep his team in contention each year as he ages. Moreno purchased the club shortly after their sole World Series title in 2002, so he is yet to hoist a trophy as owner. To be clear: this is baseless speculation. As far as I can tell, no writers or front office folks have leaked information indicating that Moreno plans to break the bank this winter. But would I be stunned if Moreno authorized a $200 million payroll so he could pair Harper and Trout together for the next two years before allowing both to leave via free agency for Trout and an opt-out clause for Harper? Absolutely not. And in that scenario, the Angels would jettison Calhoun, minimizing the payroll impact of Harper’s addition.
It’s still more likely that the Angels focus on pitching acquisitions this winter — Dallas Keuchel and Patrick Corbin make sense as targets — but if payroll hits $200 million, they would have room for both Harper/Machado and the needed pitching. For now, let’s assume they non-tender Shoemaker and Ramirez but hold onto Calhoun as a bounceback candidate.
Projected 2019 Payroll: $175 million
Projected 2019 Payroll Space: $36.6 million