[LT Profits]

Source: Footballguys.com


Fantasy Winners
Mike Evans, Vincent Jackson, and Austin-Seferian-Jenkins, TB - Tampa's top two wideouts and towering tight end have gained a quarterback who plays the game with an aggressive edge and knows how to harness his considerable arm talent to produce results on the field, especially when the game is on the line. Evans has a chance to be elevated to the Bryant/Brown/Beckham/Julio/Demaryius/Megatron tier.

Alfred Morris, WAS - #5 pick Brandon Scherff is a butt-kicker in the running game who can blot out targets at the second level and spring big runs. Scherff helps firm up a line that needs to take pressure off of Robert Griffin III by establishing the run the way they did in 2012.

Charles Johnson, MIN - Johnson was called out by the team as their best receiver earlier in the offseason, and they passed on reuniting Teddy Bridgewater with his college teammate DeVante Parker, who went to Miami at #14. Mike Wallace is there, but Johnson should have every opportunity to be Bridgewater's #1 target for now and the future.

Lamar Miller, MIA - The Gurley to Miami talk was constant leading up to the draft, and it was believable as top 10 talk crept into the conversation after his combine re-check. St. Louis intervened and took Gurley, leaving Miller intact as the lead back, although he could still face a challenge from a back drafted on the second day, so write this one in pencil.

Ryan Tannehill, MIA - Tannehill now enters the season with Kenny Stills, Greg Jennings and #14 pick DeVante Parker outside and Jarvis Landry and Jordan Cameron stressing defenses in the middle of the field and short zones. If Tannehill can identify mismatches consistently, the Miami offense could turn up the heat this year.

Melvin Gordon, SD - Gordon basically has nothing standing in between him and a starting job, and in an offense with a good QB and big bodied offensive line like the one he had in Wisconsin. Gordon should be drafted as an upside RB2 play in the third, if not second round in redraft leagues now.

Nelson Agholor, PHI - Agholor has the outside game to replace some of Jeremy Maclin's production, and he has the versatility to stay on the field most of the time in multiple roles that will set up he, and not Jordan Matthews to be the #1 fantasy receiver in this offense, and maybe even as early as this year.

Sam Bradford, PHI - No Mariota means Bradford will get the keys to the offense. He gained an upgrade from Josh Huff in the receiver corps before he even suited up. He'll be worth a look in a QBBC approach and a weekly consideration in DFS as long as he's healthy.

Carson Palmer, ARI - Palmer is vulnerable as a Bruce Arians QB, and his 2014 ended with an injury. #24 pick DJ Humphries is a battler who should be an instant upgrade at right tackle. If 2013 #7 overall pick Jonathan Cooper can pan out in year three, Palmer will feel like he's in a fortress compared to years past.

Breshad Perriman, BAL - Joe Flacco hasn't seen a deep throw he won't try, and Perriman is supposed provide the deep speed and big frame game in the air to turn deep balls into big plays. Flacco has already tolerated drops from Torrey Smith and continued to go his way, so Perriman's occasional lapses will be something he is accustomed to. Perriman should push Marlon Brown and Kamar Aiken to start immediately, and Steve Smith is a good role model.

Andrew Luck, IND - "In case of TY Hilton injury, break glass". Phillip Dorsett has the speed to take the top off of a defense and keeps Luck's deep arm and play extending skill in play to lethal ends for the opponent even if current #1 WR TY Hilton goes down. Dorsett and Hilton on the field together will stress the safeties with players like Andre Johnson, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen able to occupy the middle of the field with success.

Joique Bell, DET - Bell (and lots of other RBs in the league) is far from out of the woods when it comes to new credible competition coming from the draft, but he did gain a quality run blocking guard in #28 pick Laken Tomlinson and the Lions even added depth via Manny Ramirez in the trade down with the Broncos. The Lions offensive line is looking well suited to key a power running attack, and Bell can flourish with his hard-nosed running style.

Fantasy Losers
Marcus Mariota, TEN - Philadelphia would have been a home run and the Jets or Cleveland would have been promising on some level. Tennessee has a terrible supporting cast and a regime that is two steps out on the plank - one that sounds ready to rush a QB who is going to have a big transition to the NFL. Bad vibes.

Tre Mason, STL - Mason becomes a second fiddle to Todd Gurley in an instant and his fantasy value has vanished in redraft and dynasty leagues alike. At least Zac Stacy might get traded.

Todd Gurley, STL - On one hand, Gurley is with a coach that ran Eddie George into the ground, a back Matt Waldman has compared Gurley to in the past. On the other, the Rams have Nick Foles, an offensive line in shambles, and no proven receiving option. I'm not loving the idea of facing Seattle, San Francisco, and Arizona twice a year either. Tre Mason is no slouch and will encourage the Rams to take it slow with Gurley and cast a shadow on his redraft stock too. Gurley still projects as a volume low RB1/high RB2 long term, but we remember this show from Steven Jackson, and he only hit on all fantasy cylinders for one full year of his career.

Alshon Jeffery, CHI - Jeffery is back to having someone on the opposite side of the field that presents another primary threat for defenses. John Fox is notorious for bringing rookies along slowly, but from the long view, #7 pick Kevin White projects as a co-#1 for Jeffery, which takes some edge off of his ceiling.

Donte Moncrief, IND - I get Ryan Grigson's logic of making sure you always have enough hands on deck to wield your biggest advantage (Andrew Luck) against your opponent. I don't mind this pick as much as others, but it does leave Moncrief in the unenviable position of being one of a cast of many, even with a pass offense that splits up the biggest passing pie in the league. Another mouth to feed is not a good thing for him long term no matter how you spin it.

Holding Steady
Amari Cooper, OAK - Derek Carr is no sure thing to blossom as a QB and Cooper doesn't have much to deflect focus from him as THE threat in the Raiders passing game except Michael Crabtree on a "prove it" deal. There were worse landing spots in the top 10, but it's hard to get excited about Cooper the Raider.

Kevin White, CHI - For redraft, White actually suffered a blow because John Fox might have a thing about playing rookies early. For dynasty, White has Cutler for this year and who knows after that. Alshon Jeffery is a co-#1 which slightly limits White's long-term ceiling unless Cutler or another QB can electrify this pass offense.

Kenny Stills, MIA - Stills remains the primary deep threat in this Dolphins pass offense, and Greg Jennings is likely a one-year rental. This pass offense can be prolific enough to keep Stills in the WR3 ranks while DeVante Parker comes around and Jarvis Landry soaks up targets from the slot.

Jordan Matthews, PHI - The addition of Nelson Agholor will likely keep Matthews inside more than he would have been if the Eagles didn't spend a high pick on a receiver, but Matthews is better suited to stay in that Marques Colston role anyway. I wasn't projecting Matthews to make as big a leap in statistics as some, so this development in his outlook was a net push in my book.

DeVante Parker, MIA - Teddy Bridgewater would have been a better running mate than Ryan Tannehill if only because of Parker's experience with Bridgewater, but Tannehill is still above the "Andy Dalton" line in the QB world. Parker could have ended up in St. Louis, but then again he could have ended up in New Orleans too.

Thumbs Up
New York Jets - Good luck preparing for Mo Wilkerson, Sheldon Richardson, Damon Harrison… and Leonard Williams. Sometimes you just let the draft come to you. Williams was the best prospect in this draft in the view of some (including me), and he transforms an advantage the Jets already have into a potential submission hold. New head coach Todd Bowles will know how to unleash this horde of invading barbarians on opponents. Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie must be licking their chops in anticipation of the passes from beleaguered QBs that will be coming their way.

Atlanta - The Falcons didn't trade up and still got possibly the #1 player on their board. Vic Beasley had the best combination of athletic upside, production and film of the EDGE prospects and he fell past multiple teams that could have used one and took another position instead. New head coach Dan Quinn gets a player that his predecessor as Seattle defensive coordinator, Gus Bradley, passed on for Dante Fowler Jr, a player that Quinn coached at Florida.

Cleveland - It's boring, but last year was anything but boring in the first round for the Browns and look where that got them. This team continues to strengthen their trench play, and if they can get anything from their quarterback, remember, they were a winning team for much of last year until the Hoyer/Manziel debacle. Danny Shelton and Cam Erving are energetic, competitive football players who will contribute right away.

Houston - The Texans could have drafted a wide receiver, but Kevin Johnson is a ball thief and sticky cover corner who can help leverage more benefits from a defensive line that will gain Vince Wilfork and Jadeveon Clowney this year. When you have to get past Andrew Luck to win the division, drafting a top corner isn't a bad angle, and Johnson has the feet of a ninja.

Kansas City - Andy Reid seems like he knows the ropes more than well enough to handle a player like Marcus Peters who clashed with coaches in college. Peters was considered by some to be the best corner in the draft, and the Chiefs have the pass rush to maximize the value of his aggressive, physical style. This is one of those picks where need and value intersected perfectly.

Pittsburgh - The Steelers got a boom/bust player at a much more tolerable price than the top 8 pick that Bud Dupree was supposed to command heading into the draft. Dupree has the highest athletic ceiling of the EDGE prospects by far, but he has a lot to learn and ignite in his game if he's going to make up for the miss that Jarvis Jones looks like two years in. The two are opposites, and the Steelers much hope that averaging the two leads to a hit.

Thumbs Down
Jacksonville - Dante Fowler is a high floor nasty customer, but he's not a guy who can manufacture a lot of edge pressure on his own. Seeing some nice EDGE defender names like Owa Odighizuwa, Randy Gregory, and Eli Harold still on the board heading into Day 2 makes the pick look worse in hindsight if the alternative was Amari Cooper or Leonard Williams. Fowler and Vic Beasley will be compared for a long time.

New York Giants - Maybe the La'el Collins situation pushed Ereck Flowers up, but that's not exactly comforting when you're talking about a top 10 selection. Flowers looked like he was riding a mechanical bull at times when he was trying to pass protect against better pass rushers. Flowers isn't DJ Fluker and the strength of the Giants offense will be the passing game, where Flowers struggles.

San Francisco - Arik Armstead is highly projectable with outstanding athleticism for a 6'7" 292 pound behemoth, but San Francisco drafted a player because of what he could be, when this reeling defense needs a dose what he is right now. The 49ers have to make Armstead a more consistent and fiery player, right when they are losing a lot of the players that typified that quality in their once great defense.

[Wrigley]

I think Todd Gurley will have a big impact on fantsy his rookie season