[GamblerSpirit]

Taken from the following column written by ESPN's Matthew Berry.
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/fo...1_TMRManifesto

Arian, Arian, ArianCan he repeat?

If you've read me for at all in the past two years (I took a bunch of heat for liking him as a rookie in Week 15 of '09), you know I love this guy. But can he repeat? History says no.

Mark Malzewski of ESPN Stats & Information pulled the numbers on every running back in the last 20 years who has had at least 18 touchdowns in a season and looked at what they did the following year.


Running backs with 18+ TDs (rushing and receiving) since 1991

Year	Player	TD	Next season TD
2010	Arian Foster, Hou	18	?
2009	Adrian Peterson, Min	18	13
2008	DeAngelo Williams, Car	20	7
2007	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	18	12
2006	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	31	18
2006	Larry Johnson, KC	19	4 (8 games)
2005	Shaun Alexander, Sea	28	7 (10 games)
2005	Larry Johnson, KC	21	19
2005	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	20	31
2004	Shaun Alexander, Sea	20	28
2004	LaDainian Tomlinson, SD	18	20
2003	Priest Holmes, KC	27	15 (8 games)
2003	Ahman Green, GB	20	8
2002	Priest Holmes, KC	24	27
2002	Shaun Alexander, Sea	18	16
2001	Marshall Faulk, StL	21	10
2000	Marshall Faulk, StL	26	21
2000	Edgerrin James, Ind	18	3 (6 games)
1999	None	--	--
1998	Terrell Davis, Den	23	2 (4 games)
1997	None	--	--
1996	Terry Allen, Was	21	5 (10 games)
1995	Emmitt Smith, Dal	25	15
1994	Emmitt Smith, Dal	22	25
1993	None	--	--
1992	Emmitt Smith, Dal	19	10
1991	None	--	--

It has happened 23 times since 1991. And of those 23, the running back met or exceeded the 18 touchdowns only nine times. And those nine times were done by Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Priest Holmes and LaDainian Tomlinson. Five players in 20 years. And the three most recent guys to do it -- DeAngelo, Peterson and the last year of Tomlinson -- haven't been able to repeat. History says Foster will be good, but not as good as last season.

[convick]

I wouldnt go so far as to predict a below average season. How about and AVERAGE season. He will probably be 4th or 5th best RB this year in terms of fantasy production. Id rather have a couple of other RBs instead of him.

[ttwarrior1]

he also said take vick 1st overall last year. don't really care for berrys advice

If you watch foster play, he is just a beast,people are afraid to tackle him Great hands, size ,speed and wanting
to prove his doubters wrong

[Hurls]

he also said take vick 1st overall last year. don't really care for berrys advice

If you watch foster play, he is just a beast,people are afraid to tackle him Great hands, size ,speed and wanting
to prove his doubters wrong

agree Arian foster is so good I dont know how he has a below average season, i mean injury anything could happen he is just so good when it comes to all parts of that offense

[Straight Cash]

That statement is a bit misleading. He may have an average season compared to his prior production, but with how many RBBC there are now the bar for average compared to all RBs is pretty low.

[me-first]

expecting another big year from Foster if he stays healthy..

[GamblerSpirit]

Well, not that I think highly of Matthew Berry, but I don't even want the first or second pick. Not even the third pick. If I land picks# 4-6 im drafting either rice, mccoy, cj2k, or at worst aaron rodgers in that order. I think I'd pass on Mcfadden until later. It's just that arian foster got hurt early last season, and ben tate who was drafted to be the lead back (until foster blew up) also started having 100 yd games. It's all about that system! Now theyre going to be a RBBC team so I dont see the upside anymore with having the #1 pick this year and FORCED into taking either Foster or Adrian Peterson..I guess not Peterson anymore.

P.s. It's just that this guy is throwing out stats and numbers about why we shouldn't expect Arian Foster to have a consistent season, Foster also became a vegan in the offseason. Lol they still have those these days? I'd think they would all be gone by now. Here's one that plays football and doen't eat meat.

[pley1234]

Stats and information

[Andy117]

Taken from the following column written by ESPN's Matthew Berry.
http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/fo...1_TMRManifesto

That link is for last season's manifesto.

[GamblerSpirit]

That link is for last season's manifesto.

wow that's a blunder. didn't notice that at first. The guy was right though.

[Grits n' Gravy]

Just need to hope the fumble problems he had late in season don't continue.

[MexicanStallion]

I can hope for a below average season. He is a rival in my division.

[Hurls]

Just need to hope the fumble problems he had late in season don't continue.

yea he had a rough time holding that ball last 2/3 of season thats for sure

[Grits n' Gravy]

yea he had a rough time holding that ball last 2/3 of season thats for sure

Tate also put up similar strong numbers while Foster was out with injury. New right side of OL too.

[GamblerSpirit]

matthew berry nailed it on the head

[Wrigley]

I think Foster will have another great season take him as the first RB

[infamousbacardi]

Hard not to back him, but Tate is a year older and better, Foster is a year older and maybe taking less punishment than normal, and Schaub has TEs for days to throw too....I would still take him, but expecting 25 TDs or something isn't realistic.

[PAULYPOKER]

OP's life is a fantasy...................

[convick]

Id rather have Ray Rice.

[ZetaPsi808]

matthew berry likes rooster

[ttwarrior1]

whose pic is that zeta?

[Grits n' Gravy]

Chris Johnson has big year.

[Koldazzice]

foster imo should be behind mcCoy as I love ben tate

[GamblerSpirit]

foster imo should be behind mcCoy as I love ben tate

So Mccoy is what # back for you? How would you rate them?