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Dogs bite in Week 2; Books still on top of totals
Dogs bite in Week 2; Books still on top of totals
Every dog has his day, as the old saying goes, and that was especially true for several underdogs in the second week of college football action. East Carolina pulled off the biggest outriight upset with a solid 24-3 win over previous No. 8 West Virginia. Though some dogs failed to pull off the straight up win, they at least covered the spread, including San Diego State in their 21-13 loss to Notre Dame.
If the opening week of the college football season went the way of the favorites on the betting odds, then the dogs had their day in Week 2. This was especially true for matchups in the Top 25, as several ranked faves were unable to cover against what proved to be some formidable opponents.
It wasn’t just ATS losses that bit Top-25 schools and their backers; some of them went down straight-up as well. That was certainly the case for No. 8 West Virginia, who couldn’t move the ball in a stunning 24-3 defeat as 7-point road favorites versus East Carolina.
The Pirates held the Mountaineers to only 251 total yards in the upset, as the game played under the 48-point total listed by oddsmakers. WVU quarterback Pat White got the Mountaineers into the red zone only once, scoring a measly field goal against ECU. The win catapulted East Carolina into the 14th spot in the AP rankings a week after the Pirates knocked off then-No. 17 Virginia Tech 27-22.
West Virginia wasn’t the only ranked school to go down, as No. 25 South Carolina fell 24-17 to Vanderbilt as 9½-point road faves. The defeat dropped the Gamecocks from the rankings, who lost despite holding the Commodores to only 90 yards passing.
Looking worse than South Carolina was No. 15 Brigham Young, who defeated Washington 28-27 only after a questionable unsportsmanlike penalty was given to Huskies QB Jake Locker in the dying seconds. After scoring what appeared to be the game-tying touchdown, Locker tossed the ball into the air in celebration. The act drew a 15-yard penalty, and the Cougars blocked the ensuing 35-yard extra point attempt. Washington bettors got the last laugh, cruising to the bank as 7½-point home underdogs in the loss.
No. 19 Wake Forest barely slipped past Mississippi on Saturday, escaping with a 30-28 triumph. Riley Skinner led the Demon Deacons on a 56-yard drive in the final minute, and Sam Swank kicked the game-winning 41-yard field goal for Wake Forest, who combined with Ole Miss to play under the 48-point total. The win didn’t matter to bettors, though, as the Rebels cashed the 7-point road dog tag delivered by oddsmakers earlier in the week.
Suffering the same fate as Wake Forest backers were those who played No. 17 South Florida, which needed overtime to get past Central Florida. Matt Grothe threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns, including the winning toss to Taurus Johnson in OT in the Bulls’ 31-24 victory. UCF failed to cover as 14-point road faves, while the teams played over the 47-point total listed at the window.
Notre Dame kicked off its season with an ugly 21-13 win over visiting San Diego State, as the Aztecs cruised to the payday as 21½-point pups. The Fighting Irish were sidetracked by the same problem that made them one of the worst bets in college pigskin last season – the inability to run the football. This is especially disconcerting considering the quality of opposition Notre Dame was up against, and that San Diego State’s defensive line was depleted by injury.
Irish backers will need a better effort this week against Michigan if they’re to come away with a cover, let alone a win SU against the Wolverines.
Season trends
Favorites continue to lead the way for NCAA football bettors, although Week 2 changed the scene considerably. Underdogs went 26-20-1 last week, good for 56% for those of you keeping score.
On the season, faves have been the best play overall, with a 43-39-2 (53%) mark ATS through the first two weeks of the schedule. The best numbers through Week 2 lie with favorites on the road – such teams are hitting at a 56% clip, although 14 paydays in 25 games isn’t a big enough sample to draw any long-term conclusions.
If you’re looking for a trend on totals, you had better wait. The books are right on the money so far, as the over/under is an even 41-41 after two weeks of action. Think Week 2 was any different? Guess again. Games played over in 23 of 46 contests last week, holding up sportsbooks’ dream start on the Over/Under.
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Originally Posted by Willie Bee
