1. #1
    Chance Harper
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    Dogs bite in Week 2; Books still on top of totals

    Dogs bite in Week 2; Books still on top of totals

    Every dog has his day, as the old saying goes, and that was especially true for several underdogs in the second week of college football action. East Carolina pulled off the biggest outriight upset with a solid 24-3 win over previous No. 8 West Virginia. Though some dogs failed to pull off the straight up win, they at least covered the spread, including San Diego State in their 21-13 loss to Notre Dame.


    If the opening week of the college football season went the way of the favorites on the betting odds, then the dogs had their day in Week 2. This was especially true for matchups in the Top 25, as several ranked faves were unable to cover against what proved to be some formidable opponents.

    It wasn’t just ATS losses that bit Top-25 schools and their backers; some of them went down straight-up as well. That was certainly the case for No. 8 West Virginia, who couldn’t move the ball in a stunning 24-3 defeat as 7-point road favorites versus East Carolina.

    The Pirates held the Mountaineers to only 251 total yards in the upset, as the game played under the 48-point total listed by oddsmakers. WVU quarterback Pat White got the Mountaineers into the red zone only once, scoring a measly field goal against ECU. The win catapulted East Carolina into the 14th spot in the AP rankings a week after the Pirates knocked off then-No. 17 Virginia Tech 27-22.

    West Virginia wasn’t the only ranked school to go down, as No. 25 South Carolina fell 24-17 to Vanderbilt as 9½-point road faves. The defeat dropped the Gamecocks from the rankings, who lost despite holding the Commodores to only 90 yards passing.

    Looking worse than South Carolina was No. 15 Brigham Young, who defeated Washington 28-27 only after a questionable unsportsmanlike penalty was given to Huskies QB Jake Locker in the dying seconds. After scoring what appeared to be the game-tying touchdown, Locker tossed the ball into the air in celebration. The act drew a 15-yard penalty, and the Cougars blocked the ensuing 35-yard extra point attempt. Washington bettors got the last laugh, cruising to the bank as 7½-point home underdogs in the loss.

    No. 19 Wake Forest barely slipped past Mississippi on Saturday, escaping with a 30-28 triumph. Riley Skinner led the Demon Deacons on a 56-yard drive in the final minute, and Sam Swank kicked the game-winning 41-yard field goal for Wake Forest, who combined with Ole Miss to play under the 48-point total. The win didn’t matter to bettors, though, as the Rebels cashed the 7-point road dog tag delivered by oddsmakers earlier in the week.

    Suffering the same fate as Wake Forest backers were those who played No. 17 South Florida, which needed overtime to get past Central Florida. Matt Grothe threw for 346 yards and three touchdowns, including the winning toss to Taurus Johnson in OT in the Bulls’ 31-24 victory. UCF failed to cover as 14-point road faves, while the teams played over the 47-point total listed at the window.

    Notre Dame kicked off its season with an ugly 21-13 win over visiting San Diego State, as the Aztecs cruised to the payday as 21½-point pups. The Fighting Irish were sidetracked by the same problem that made them one of the worst bets in college pigskin last season – the inability to run the football. This is especially disconcerting considering the quality of opposition Notre Dame was up against, and that San Diego State’s defensive line was depleted by injury.

    Irish backers will need a better effort this week against Michigan if they’re to come away with a cover, let alone a win SU against the Wolverines.

    Season trends
    Favorites continue to lead the way for NCAA football bettors, although Week 2 changed the scene considerably. Underdogs went 26-20-1 last week, good for 56% for those of you keeping score.

    On the season, faves have been the best play overall, with a 43-39-2 (53%) mark ATS through the first two weeks of the schedule. The best numbers through Week 2 lie with favorites on the road – such teams are hitting at a 56% clip, although 14 paydays in 25 games isn’t a big enough sample to draw any long-term conclusions.

    If you’re looking for a trend on totals, you had better wait. The books are right on the money so far, as the over/under is an even 41-41 after two weeks of action. Think Week 2 was any different? Guess again. Games played over in 23 of 46 contests last week, holding up sportsbooks’ dream start on the Over/Under.

  2. #2
    JRS21386
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    It seems like more and more teams each year are able to compete... This happened last year...

  3. #3
    Willie Bee
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    Pretty amazing what the totals have done so far. One thing to sit at 50-50 at one point or another during a season, but very rare to see them go 50-50 like that two weeks in a row.

  4. #4
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie Bee View Post
    Pretty amazing what the totals have done so far. One thing to sit at 50-50 at one point or another during a season, but very rare to see them go 50-50 like that two weeks in a row.
    if you bet every under at the open you are hitting over 60%.

  5. #5
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by JRS21386 View Post
    It seems like more and more teams each year are able to compete... This happened last year...
    Comes down to recruiting, not evey kid wants to go to Bama, Ohio St, Usc and ride the pine for 3 years and maybe get a shot to play Junior or Senior year. Kids our willing to go to smaller programs and still make a name for them selfs as far as NFL goes.(thats a selcet few who our in that boat) Kids can go places like Tulsa, Texas Tech, Vandy, Fresno St and play early and still get exposed and do just as well on the field as well as off.

  6. #6
    durito
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    This Chance guy write more nonsense than I've ever come across.

    If you guys want some better "content" I could write something a bit more accurate.

  7. #7
    teaserpleaser
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    I agree some what about recruiting but its more than that... A coach like Pat Hill at Fresno State will take a 1 star or 2 star recruit (UCLA,USC, and Cal wouldnt even look twice at these kids hes getting) Maybe its the off season workouts maybe its the spread offenses i dont know but besides USC and The Top SEC schools the Day of rolling your helmet out there and getting the W are over. (bad for me I play alot of Chalk)

  8. #8
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by teaserpleaser View Post
    I agree some what about recruiting but its more than that... A coach like Pat Hill at Fresno State will take a 1 star or 2 star recruit (UCLA,USC, and Cal wouldnt even look twice at these kids hes getting) Maybe its the off season workouts maybe its the spread offenses i dont know but besides USC and The Top SEC schools the Day of rolling your helmet out there and getting the W are over. (bad for me I play alot of Chalk)
    Thats what you have to love about college sports, for most part you cant a victory. Unless something like the movie Blue chips is going on in certain places?

  9. #9
    Willie Bee
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    if you bet every under at the open you are hitting over 60%.
    Believe he's only taking into account closing numbers, which is the norm for general ATS, O/U stats discussions.

  10. #10
    teaserpleaser
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    haha funny you bring that up... True story i have no reason to pull your leg, my uncle before his death was a history prof at USC 1999- 2005 he lived in the same Apt that the USC football players stay at in front of the Shrine auditorium we could never get parking because of all the 40,000 dollar cars in the small parking lot for the complex... This was about when Carson Palmer was there. I was shocked not one or two of them im talking about 20 cars of that value and the kicker was most of them were the same car just a different color. The NCAA turns a blind eye because its pretty obvious... Theres a reason USC is getting all these NFL future players and its not because of the weather and Hot chicks at USC (Those help) The Ojay Mayo stuff and Reggie Bush taking money is nothing new its been going on for years. USC alumni has money to burn. Those kids want for nothing

  11. #11
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by teaserpleaser View Post
    haha funny you bring that up... True story i have no reason to pull your leg, my uncle before his death was a history prof at USC 1999- 2005 he lived in the same Apt that the USC football players stay at in front of the Shrine auditorium we could never get parking because of all the 40,000 dollar cars in the small parking lot for the complex... This was about when Carson Palmer was there. I was shocked not one or two of them im talking about 20 cars of that value and the kicker was most of them were the same car just a different color. The NCAA turns a blind eye because its pretty obvious... Theres a reason USC is getting all these NFL future players and its not because of the weather and Hot chicks at USC (Those help) The Ojay Mayo stuff and Reggie Bush taking money is nothing new its been going on for years. USC alumni has money to burn. Those kids want for nothing
    Alot of this is true, but if I remember correctly wasnt Palmer family well off before he went to USC? I dont doubt they get THINGS, while attending Usc. But also alot of kids who go there have family money as its not cheap to live in Cali let alone southern Cali! Reggie and Oj our in a different situation though!

  12. #12
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Willie Bee View Post
    Believe he's only taking into account closing numbers, which is the norm for general ATS, O/U stats discussions.
    That may be the "norm". I have no idea.

    But, saying "Books still on top of totals" as the headline of the article says, isn't accurate. The market may be well on top of totals, but that has nothing to do with the books.

    I don't know what the purpose of these articles is. If it's to pass around crap so that the typical player continues to lose, then they do a good job. But, there's nothing in any of these that would help someone become a better gambler.

  13. #13
    Bread
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    I agree with you Durito.

    All front page writers are completely useless.

    You, on the other hand, are a godsend.


  14. #14
    teaserpleaser
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    yeah im not saying Carson took anything... im just giving you a timeline, odd that was around the same time The program started landing these big time recruits and the turn around. Its just a part of football ... no matter if your from the hood or not a alumni wants to give you a $500 dollar handshake you take it thats alot of money to college kids rich or poor.

  15. #15
    durito
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bread View Post
    I agree with you Durito.

    All front page writers are completely useless.

    You, on the other hand, are a godsend.

    Didn't I see you write something up there?

  16. #16
    teaserpleaser
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    Is it luck or just good recruiting... that whole USC defense That plays the buckeyes this weekend will be on a NFL roster.

  17. #17
    Bread
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    I'll never tell...

  18. #18
    teaserpleaser
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    BREAD! whats up I wish i would have bet on Rashad Evens... I dont like betting against Chuck. I should have known after Jardine layed the gameplan and him and Rashad are teammates

  19. #19
    gm2022
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    Quote Originally Posted by teaserpleaser View Post
    Is it luck or just good recruiting... that whole USC defense That plays the buckeyes this weekend will be on a NFL roster.

    Id say recruiting, plain and simple. I think most kids they go after our kids that have NFL size speed, but maybe not the skills yet. One thing you have to think about is they go against each other in practice all year long and that brings out the best in players when they have that kind of competition. Know one is ever that much better than the guy in front or behind him. Day in and out is a dog fight with guys. Why you think some one like Colt Brannon game never turned over as well against even competition. He never had any competition at Hawaii in practice and in most games. Also when I talk about competition, I dont mean the other players at your position. I mean the guys on the other side of the ball. Your d and o giving you a solid look of what you will actually see every week.

  20. #20
    Bread
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    wuzup tp....I didn't even foresee Rashad dropping him like that. I really thought he could take it to the judges and win it. That was an amazing strike.

    Went 2-3 overall for even money with the underdog. Matt Brown was robbed.

    Bring me some seafood.

  21. #21
    teaserpleaser
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    haha seafood is where its at...

  22. #22
    donjuan
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    I can't believe I just read that. Where's a sharp stick to stab my eyes out?

  23. #23
    teaserpleaser
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    I guess Pete Carroll is just that much a better recruiter than Paul Hackett because You didnt have 20 -30 possible NFL Talent guys walking around campus in the 90's (Check USC's depth chart its crazy the amount of talent that doesnt see the field) seriously usc's 3rd string could probably beat a MAC team. I dont know Call me crazy but i dont think its Pure good ole honest recruiting going on here. When was the last time one of these major powers was busted for fake jobs or giving kids money? even the reggie bush thing is not in the media now and i think the investigation is still on going. I might be mistaken but i think Oklahoma told on themselves to avoid getting caught. Just something to think about.
    Last edited by teaserpleaser; 09-08-08 at 03:50 PM.

  24. #24
    donjuan
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    I dont know Call me crazy but i dont think its Pure good ole honest recruiting going on here. When was the last time one of these major powers was busted for fake jobs or giving kids money? even the reggie bush thing is not in the media now and i think the investigation is still on going.
    Meanwhile Colorado gets raped by the NCAA for undercharging a few walk-ons for meals. Classic NCAA.

  25. #25
    smitch124
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    Quote Originally Posted by durito View Post
    This Chance guy write more nonsense than I've ever come across.

    If you guys want some better "content" I could write something a bit more accurate.

    Would be happy to read anything you have to say on the subject, Durito.

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