[Willie Bee]

Utah -21½ covers UNLV Rebels

Game Time: 09/06/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | experts.covers.com

The Utes are coming off a big upset at Michigan last week and out for revenge at home against UNLV this Saturday. Lay the points with Utah against the Rebels in Salt Lake City.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham's Utah Utes (No. 22 in AP, No. 23 in USA Today poll) are coming off the biggest win in school history against the Michigan Wolverines last week in the Big House, winning by a score of 25-23 and covering as 3½-point underdogs. A letdown you would think would be inevitable despite this being a Mountain West Conference opener.

Guess again, as the Utes have a huge revenge scenario on board this week against a UNLV Rebels team that upset them in embarrassing fashion last season by a score of 27-0. To add insult to injury, Rebels top RB Frank 'The Tank' Summers, a Jerome Bettis look-alike, told the media after that above-mentioned loss that the Utes were diving for his ankles, as they looked to avoid making body tackles against the bruising runner. Needless to say the Utah D that allowed the Wolverines just four rushing yards in the first half last week did not take kindly to his words, and will use them as motivation in in front of what is expected to be a sellout crowd of 30,000 plus.

The Rebels know a runaway train is headed their way this week, and will have a game plan set up that will try to get them out of here without being humiliated; however, that will be easier said than done against a far superior foe.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Utah is 11-1 the last 12 in this series, with last year's loss their first since 1979. UNLV has lost 15 straight Mountain West road games, and 20 of their last 21 away from Sin City. The Rebels are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.

Projected Score: Utah-41 UNLV-10

Free Pick: Utah -21½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Miami-Ohio RedHawks, Michigan Wolverines Over 40½

Game Time: 09/06/2008 12:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Both the Michigan and Miami-Ohio defenses looked bad last week, and with the Miami offense having success in the air and Michigan expected to improve, go Over.

Michigan ran into a buzz-saw in the Utah Utes last week, but unlike last year when they started the season 2-0, we look for them to score with relative ease vs. a shaky Miami-Ohio defense this week, and that should be enough to push this game Over.

Defense has been a problem for Miami for several seasons now, and this year appears to be no exception based on their opening week performance, a 34-13 home loss to Vanderbilt. The RedHawks were just atrocious vs. the run, allowing a whopping 269 rushing yards on 5.4 yards per carry.

Miami did have a few offensive highlights though, as quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh passed for 244 yards. Sure, a lot of that came after the game was already decided, but we have no problem with a repeat of that in garbage time here too, as it would only help the Over.

The Wolverines should appreciate this drop in class after playing Utah, so this may be the week that the new offense brought in by Rich Rodriguez starts to shine. On the other side of the ball, the defense has some issues, especially a secondary that allowed 305 passing yards to the Utes. This should leave the backdoor open to Raudabaugh should Michigan build up a big lead.

That is the very reason why we would be reluctant to lay the big points here, but we do expect this contest to go Over rather safely.

Free Pick: Miami-Ohio, Michigan Over 40½ (-110)

[VegasDave]

Hmm... as much as I love Utah, I'd be a bit concerned with a let down type situation here. They left it all on the field VS. Michigan. Sure, they should roll in this one, but I wouldn't bet it.

[Willie Bee]

Minnesota Golden Gophers +5½ at Bowling Green

Game Time: 09/06/2008 07:30 PM -
By: Matt Fargo | experts.covers.com

Minnesota is in revenge mode after dropping their 2007 opener to Bowling Green. Go with the Golden Gophers as road favorites Saturday evening against the Falcons.

Bowling Green is coming off a monster upset at Pittsburgh and this is not a very good spot for the Falcons. They trailed 14-0 early but came back thanks to the Panthers basically giving it away. Pittsburgh actually outgained Bowling Green 393-254 but four turnovers did the Panthers in. It was the first win over a Top 25 team since 2003 so if ever there is a chance for a letdown, this is it.

Minnesota is coming off a home win over Northern Illinois to start the season. It was a much closer game than expected and it took a touchdown with just 22 seconds remaining for the Golden Gophers to avoid yet another opening game upset from a MAC opponent. Last season, it was Bowling Green who defeated the Gophers in overtime to start the year so Minnesota is playing with some revenge.

The Gophers put up 425 yards of total offense and that will be the strength again this year. Minnesota has nine returning starters on offense, including quarterback Adam Weber, who led the offense in rushing and passing last year, and they finished 48th in total offense which was outstanding considering it was the first year the new offense was in place. The Gophers scored 31 or more points six times so they are right on pace with that again after matching that against the Huskies.

The Falcons defense played well against the Panthers but they could be in for some trouble here. Minnesota put up 434 yards in last season’s meeting including 246 yards on the ground. The rushing defense allowed a whopping 207.9 YPG last season and while it did a good job against Pittsburgh on Saturday, this spread attack will be much tougher to defend. Bowling Green finished 93rd overall and 94th in scoring defense a season ago.

This line is the first thing that jumps out. Bowling Green did take out a team from the Big East but now being favored by a decent amount over a Big Ten team is simply too aggressive. The MAC has provided many upsets over the years but the question is can Bowling Green do it two weeks in a row? I say there is no chance but we get enough points to cover a close game if it comes down to it. Look for the Gophers outright. Play Minnesota for 1½ units.

Free Pick: Minnesota +5½ (-110)

[themajormt]

Hey Willie great write ups... Just wondering how you have done so far this year?

GL!

[Willie Bee]

Hey Willie great write ups... Just wondering how you have done so far this year?

GL!

These are just reprints from the front page (SBRforum.com). This is my first week to really have any financial interest in college football, and I'm with LT and the following play despite Texas A&M being my old stomping grounds.

[Willie Bee]

New Mexico +2½ to upset Texas A&M

Game Time: 09/06/2008 05:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Texas A&M and New Mexico both lost at home last week, but the Lobos have a better excuse, as starting QB Porterie was knocked out early. He is back this week, ready to lead the Lobos to an upset.

The Texas A&M Aggies were shocked at home by Arkansas State last week, and we look for them to suffer their second consecutive upset at the hand of the New Mexico Lobos this Saturday.

Now the Lobos also lost at home in their opener 26-3 to TCU, but keep in mind that starting quarterback Donovan Porterie was knocked out early with a neck injury in that contest. He is listed as probable for this week and that should make all the difference here. The defense did not play as bad as the final score would indicate, as New Mexico allowed just 120 passing yards.

As for the Aggies, sure they literally fumbled the game away last week with four turnovers in the second half, but they did not exactly apply much defense pressure the entire game either. In fact, beside two sacks, they only had one other tackle for a loss the entire game. Porterie is quite capable of picking the Aggies apart of he has that much time to throw.

Look for him to do just that in a Lobos victory.

Free Pick: New Mexico +2½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Nutt Up: Ole Miss -7½ at Wake Forest

Game Time: 09/06/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Tony George | playbook.com

Houston Nutt always seems to get his teams to overachieve, and that makes the Ole Miss Rebels a solid pick as TD favorites today on the road at the Wake Forest Demon Deacons.

Houston Nutt takes his road show to Ole Miss, after having vast success at Arkansas and winning some big games down there before getting run out of town on a railcar by boosters for reasons which still baffle me.

Nonetheless, the Rebels were impressive as they rolled a decent Memphis team last week and WR Dexter McCluster is the "real deal" as he tore up the Tiger secondary, and I think he will keep Wake Forest's defense on edge all day. Ole Miss has some balance and good sized lineman up front as well on offense. Yes, the defense is a a question mark, but on offense they will trade punches in this matchup.

I'm not impressed yet with Wake who drubbed Big 12 bottom feeder Baylor last week, which was no surprise, and while QB Riley Skinner is back in form, I like QB Jevan Snead for Ole Miss to trade punches in a high-scoring game here. Both quarterbacks in this game are playmakers and way above average in talent.

This is a big step up in class for #20 Wake, against an SEC team that has renewed confidence and a coach willing to take some big chances in big games. And for one reason or another, Nutt seems to get the most out of his players and they overachieve, which is why I think Ole Miss makes this a close one on the road.

This game opened at Wake -10 and has dropped all week, I have even seen some -7½ numbers coming in Friday, so I am not alone in thinking this game is tighter than the oddsmakers originally thought.

Free Pick: Mississippi -7½ (-107)

[Willie Bee]

Texas Tech & Nevada Over 67

Game Time: 09/06/2008 09:00 PM -
By: Ted Sevransky | experts.covers.com

Now that the offenses have a game under their belt, expect to see more scoring in Week 2 of the college football season. Play Texas Tech and Nevada over the total tonight.

Week 1 is always the lowest scoring week of the college football season, with offenses needing a bit of work against 'real' defenses before they can get into any kind of a rhythm. Historically, the biggest increase from scoring from week to week occurs between the first and second week of the season. For example, in 2007 scoring increased by more than eight points per game from Week 1 to Week 2, while Overs cashed at a 67% clip. There’s no shame in looking for solid Overs to bet this week.

Texas Tech put up 639 yards of offense in their opener last week, scoring 49 points, yet we’re getting quotes like these from the Red Raiders head coach Mike Leach: "We are a spotty team. I don't think that we played what I consider well more than three series in a row on either side of the ball."

Third year quarterback Graham Harrell said, "That was a pretty sloppy game and offensively we were pretty sloppy. We've got a long ways to go and a lot of room to get better."

I expect a focused, well-executed performance from an offense that scored 41 points per game last year, facing a slower, undersized Nevada defense that struggles to stop high octane attacks.

But don’t sell the Wolfpack’s offense short either. Head coach Chris Ault has found the perfect quarterback to run his pistol offense in sophomore Colin Kaepernick, the WAC Freshman of the Year last season. Eight starters return from an offense that scored 33 points per game last year, six points higher than that at home.

Expect a wild shootout in Reno on Saturday Night, sending this game flying Over the total.

Free Pick: Texas Tech-Nevada Over 67 (-110)

[louisvillekid]

, and I'm with LT and the following play despite Texas A&M being my old stomping grounds.

dem darn Aggies cost me last week, i hope they lose, but i ain't playing it.

[Willie Bee]

Florida Gators -22½ vs. Miami-Fla

Game Time: 09/06/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Larry Ness | experts.covers.com

It's been a while since these two Sunshine State rivals have met, and Miami-Florida will probably wish it was a while longer after the Florida Gators cover the big spread on Saturday.

Amazingly, the Gators have lost their last six meetings with the Hurricanes, although this is the first meeting between these two rivals since the '04 Peach Bowl (Miami won, 27-10). That's worth pointing out because from '05-'07, while the Gators have gone 31-8 (including winning a national championship in '06), the 'Canes are just 21-16 (12-24 ATS!) during that span, including a 5-7 mark last year.

Florida 'warmed up' for its meeting with Miami by trouncing overmatched Hawaii last Saturday in "The Swamp," beating the Rainbows 56-10. Tim Tebow was asked to do very little but the Florida defense was in midseason form, holding the Rainbows without a TD until the game's final two minutes. Florida's secondary returned two interceptions for touchdowns, plus Brandon James threw in a 74-yard punt return TD as well.

Miami opened last Saturday with a 52-7 home win over Charleston Southern, christening its new home (Dolphin Stadium) after spending seven decades in the Orange Bowl. True freshman QB Jacory Harris accounted for two touchdowns. Harris started only because first-string QB Robert Marve (a red-shirt freshman) was serving a one-game suspension for disciplinary reasons. Marve is expected to start here and ironically will square-off against Heisman-winner Tim Tebow. A "side story" to this game is the fact that Marve broke Tebow's state high school records for yards and TDs.

Expect Tebow to bring his "A-game" for this contest against a Miami defense adapting to its third defensive coordinator in the last three years. The Hawaii 'cover' makes Florida 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games and Miami, with just eight returning starters, is just 3-7 ATS on the road the last two years, including blowout losses at Oklahoma (51-13) and Virginia Tech (44-14) last season. Lay the points with the Gators.

Free Pick: Florida -22½ (-110)

[Willie Bee]

Penn State -15½ vs. Oregon State

Game Time: 09/06/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Tom Stryker | 10starpicks.com

It'll be a happy time in Happy Valley this afternoon when Penn State hosts the Oregon State Beavers. Look for the Nittany Lions to cruise to a second straight cover on Saturday.

After getting rocked at Stanford last week, Oregon State will need to regroup quickly before making the difficult journey to Happy Valley to take on Joe Pa and Penn State. That’s not going to happen.

The Nittany Lions absolutely dismembered Coastal Carolina 66-10 last weekend and that blowout victory places PSU in an automatic “play on” situation. Dating back to the 1980 season, Game 2 hosts are a marvelous 58-31 ATS provided they won by 40 points or more in their season opener. If our host is matched up against an opponent that is NOT off a straight up loss of 10 points or more and find themselves priced as an underdog or a favorite of -18 or less, this system zips to a sensational 39-14 ATS. Penn State fits this system and its tightener perfectly.

Fading Oregon State shouldn’t be a problem for anyone. The Beavers have struggled big time as a non-conference guest notching a dismal 11-35 SU and 13-22 ATS record. Even worse, in the second of two or more away, OSU is a soft 8-31-3 SU and 15-25 ATS including a stunning 6-16 ATS in this role priced as a pup of +15 or more.

Joe Pa and the Lions have posted a 24-6 SU and 18-10 ATS mark in their last 30 in Beaver Stadium including a sizzling 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in this set battling a foe that enters off a straight up loss. Things are about to go from bad to worse for Oregon State. Lay the lumber here men. Take Penn State!

Free Pick: Penn State -15½ (-105)

[Willie Bee]

Central Michigan Chippewas, Georgia Bulldogs Over 56½

Game Time: 09/06/2008 03:30 PM -
By: Bryan Leonard | experts.covers.com

Quarterbacks Dan LeFevour of Central Michigan and Matt Stafford of Georgia will have their offenses clicking, sending the Chippewas and Bulldogs over the posted total.

The Chippewas of Central Michigan have consistently been the best team in the MAC since Dan LeFevour took his first snap. He entered his freshman year as the third string signal caller only to see both his fellow quarterbacks go down with injuries in the season opener. Since that time he has stepped in and never missed a beat as he has put himself on the NFL radar.

Central scored 43 total points in three road games last year vs BCS schools Kansas, Purdue and Clemson. So with the signal caller now in his junior year we can see the Chippewas reaching at least 14 here.

The problem for Central Michigan in those games was that they played a matador defense. They let Kansas score 52, Purdue reach 45 and Clemson lit them up for 70 points. With Georgia being loaded this year and with Matthew Stafford at the top of the NFL future quarterback lists, we can see the Bulldogs pouring it on. Especially when you consider that in beating Georgia Southern handily last week they dropped out of the number one slot in the polls.

We fully expect coach Mark Richt and the Bulldogs to run up the score here as they try to influence the pollsters with an impressive victory.

Free Pick: Central Michigan-Georgia Over 56½ (-110)

[darrell74]

Utah -21½ covers UNLV Rebels

Game Time: 09/06/2008 08:00 PM -
By: Alex Smart | experts.covers.com

The Utes are coming off a big upset at Michigan last week and out for revenge at home against UNLV this Saturday. Lay the points with Utah against the Rebels in Salt Lake City.

Head coach Kyle Whittingham's Utah Utes (No. 22 in AP, No. 23 in USA Today poll) are coming off the biggest win in school history against the Michigan Wolverines last week in the Big House, winning by a score of 25-23 and covering as 3½-point underdogs. A letdown you would think would be inevitable despite this being a Mountain West Conference opener.

Guess again, as the Utes have a huge revenge scenario on board this week against a UNLV Rebels team that upset them in embarrassing fashion last season by a score of 27-0. To add insult to injury, Rebels top RB Frank 'The Tank' Summers, a Jerome Bettis look-alike, told the media after that above-mentioned loss that the Utes were diving for his ankles, as they looked to avoid making body tackles against the bruising runner. Needless to say the Utah D that allowed the Wolverines just four rushing yards in the first half last week did not take kindly to his words, and will use them as motivation in in front of what is expected to be a sellout crowd of 30,000 plus.

The Rebels know a runaway train is headed their way this week, and will have a game plan set up that will try to get them out of here without being humiliated; however, that will be easier said than done against a far superior foe.

Final Notes & Key Trends: Utah is 11-1 the last 12 in this series, with last year's loss their first since 1979. UNLV has lost 15 straight Mountain West road games, and 20 of their last 21 away from Sin City. The Rebels are 4-14 ATS in their last 18 games following a SU win.

Projected Score: Utah-41 UNLV-10

Free Pick: Utah -21½ (-110)

I bought a 1/2 point with Utah, -21.
Alex, that is not the biggest win in Utah history. Utah has had some huge games, HELLO, where'd Urban Meyer come from.
Bought that 1/2 point because, Utah could get a huge lead, and squat. They did it against Michigan, and Michigan almost came back. I'll start sweating when they stop blitzing, after a 28 point lead.