The season is many months away but now is a good time to take a look at some of the potential scheduling pitfalls in the college season. An objective look at the schedule is important as one can get caught up in early season play or personnel evaluation once the season commences but be certain not to read too much into the scheduling spots as emotions and motivations from previous results can not be factored in yet. Here is a look at each of the Big Ten teams.
Recall that last season several prominent prognosticators hailed Purdue as the Big Ten favorite with the schedule playing a very significant factor, only to see Purdue falter and Penn State and Ohio State go 7-1 through allegedly tougher slates.
Illinois: The Fighting Illini return 10 starters on both offensive and defensive units in Coach Zook’s second season. After starting 2-0 last season doing so again will be possible to start well again with an opener against I-AA Eastern Illinois. Illinois beat Rutgers at home in overtime to open last season but will travel to New Jersey this season to face the 2005 bowl squad with several returning players. The Illini stay in the Big East to play Syracuse at home in a battle for bragging rights among obnoxiously orange-clad. A non-conference game against Ohio University also could spell a win unfortunately it come immediately following a home game against Indiana, providing a possible let-down spot. Missing Michigan and Minnesota in the conference schedule is a positive but facing home games against Ohio State, Iowa, and Purdue will provide little opportunity for a significant upgrade from the 0-8 conference mark in 2006.
Indiana: After starting 4-1 in 2005 bowl possibilities were being mentioned but IU allowed 38 or more points in each of the final six games to end those thoughts. Another hot start should be expected for the Hoosiers who return three starting receivers and QB Powers. Two MAC teams open the season playing Western Michigan and at Ball State. I-AA Southern Illinois fills the new 12th game slot and then a tricky non-conference home game against Connecticut before opening the Big Ten season. UConn pounded Indiana in 2003 bit it could be a tough travel spot for the Huskies this time around. Missing Penn State for the second consecutive season is a bonus but a game with Northwestern would have been welcomed. The road games appear easier than the road contests but there may be upset potential in IU’s conference opener against Wisconsin, the Badgers play at Michigan the week prior and will a daunting back-to-back road situation against an IU team that has challenged better Wisconsin teams in recent years.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes were expected by many to have a big year last season but stumbled with a tough early schedule and could not match the previous success. This season the schedule sets up much better. Iowa must play at Michigan but they have played well in that series and have revenge motivation from a narrow lost season. State rival Iowa State always presents problems for the Hawkeyes but Iowa’s home dominance has been extremely impressive. Big Ten road games against Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota all fall into the winnable category and facing Ohio State at home should present a different outcome than the ugly loss last season. Northern Illinois visits Kinnick following the big road test in Ann Arbor which could be a tricky spot but Iowa does not have to play Michigan State or Penn State this season.
Michigan: It was one of the most disappointing Michigan seasons in many years last season but this season may not present a great opportunity to get back to the top. This year Michigan must play on the road against three teams that beat them at home last season and an early season big game gauntlet of playing at Notre Dame, Wisconsin, at Minnesota, Michigan State, at Penn State, and Iowa at home in six consecutive weeks is as difficult as it gets. The Big Ten schedule has Michigan with byes against Illinois and Purdue this season two of the bottom teams in the conference from last year. The three non-conference home games should be easy wins and achieving better than last season’s 7-5 is likely but by no means assured.
Michigan State: A late season slump left MSU out of the bowl picture despite playing very well against some of the top teams in the nation. Last year MSU beat Notre Dame and held close with top teams Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State but also lost to Northwestern and Purdue. Like last season Michigan State misses Iowa and Wisconsin so the conference schedule is favorable. Facing Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks is a severe challenge and non-conference games at Pittsburgh and at home versus Notre Dame could also make for a tough start to the season. The Spartans are capable of upsets but must avoid slipping to lesser teams and need to finish the season strong as the schedule sets up for winnable final weeks.
Minnesota: Known as an non-conference tease before slipping to mediocrity Minnesota will take on a big non-conference game again California this season. Like last season the Gophers miss Illinois and Northwestern on the schedule and have to replace several key players on offense. The conference road games are difficult and this could be a year that Minnesota slides out of the bowl picture unless some serious upsets occur. Minnesota lost two home games in the conference season last year and must face Michigan, Penn State, and Iowa at the dome in 2006.
Ohio State will ride the arms and legs of quarterback Troy Smith this year. (AP Images)
Northwestern: The Wildcats have eight starters back on both sides of the ball but must replace long-time QB Basanez. With wins over Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, and Iowa last season the Wildcats posted a 5-3 conference record, the same record as Michigan and Wisconsin. All four road games this season are very difficult and Northwestern will have to win at home to return to a bowl game. The Wildcats also feature two tricky non-conference road games, at Miami Ohio, and at Nevada, both which will give Northwestern tough games. Northwestern also has to face a stretch of three consecutive road games early in the season which will make the opening the conference season very difficult.
Ohio State: The early season talk throughout the nation will again focus on the national title elimination game with Texas. The Longhorns propelled to the title winning in Columbus last season and Ohio State can try to do the same in Austin this year. The Buckeyes definitely play one of the tougher non-conference schedules in the Big Ten as they host two quality MAC teams, Northern Illinois and Bowling Green as well as Cincinnati from the Big East rather than facing a I-AA team like most of its counterparts. Hosting Michigan and Penn State should give the Buckeyes this inside track to the conference title but having to play at Iowa is always a very difficult situation.
Penn State: The Nittany Lions will join several of the other Big Ten schools and square off against Notre Dame this season. The three remaining non-conference games look to be easy wins but this will be a far different team than the 2005 Orange Bowl Championship squad as just nine starters are back. Road games at Notre Dame and Ohio State early in the season will dictate whether or not PSU can repeat the 2005 success. Penn State does not have to play Iowa but also misses out on a likely win against Indiana. Four of the last six games are at home so early survival could spell another great season at Penn State.
Purdue: The Boilers were a trendy conference and national title contender pick last season but failed to even make a bowl game as the experienced defense struggled considerably. A big part of the Purdue interest was the schedule that was free of both Ohio State and Michigan. That remains the case this season and Purdue could be an under the radar team that could get back in the hunt this year with nearly the entire O-line back and stability at QB. A difficult three game road stretch makes for a tough start to the conference season but facing Hawaii at the end of the season provides Purdue with five non-conference games. Playing at Iowa is never easy and home games against Wisconsin and Penn State in back-to-back weeks will be a challenge as well. In all this is a very manageable schedule as compared with most opponents.
Wisconsin: The Badgers were a surprise team last season and despite the coaching change and significant personnel losses on offense again can contend. Wisconsin must play at Iowa and at Michigan but those will be the biggest hurdles of the season. The season opens in Cleveland to face Bowling Green and Wisconsin also host San Diego State in non-conference play. Wisconsin does not have to play Ohio State which is a big plus and also misses a solid Michigan State squad. Improving on the 5-3 conference mark from last season is very possible with this lineup but Wisconsin has fallen victim to a conference upset in most seasons and will be the only team in the conference adjusting to a new head coach.
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