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SoonerBS' Week #1 Plays
I'm a new poster here. I came over to see what my buddy pags11 was on this year. I'm like pags11, I only post my plays at one place, but out of respect for his kindness in leading me here, I want to post my plays and write-ups here this week as well. I don't claim to be an expert or a great handicapper. I do a lot of research on all the teams and I started handicapping teams for this season back in April. Most years I end with a profit. Last year was not one of those years (sigh). It's my sincere wish that everyone here cashes this season and all do well! I'll be posting comments in here through the season and if I can help anyone let me know. I know this is a lot of plays, but remember -- I said I have been capping these teams since last April, lol.
Vanderbilt ML +150 for 2 UNITS -- Guys, I think this game fits the category of "Don't ****ing Think About It Too Much." Have we forgotten how bad the MAC was last season? To help you remember here is some statistics on the whole MAC vs. Non-Conference opponents: 23-28-1 ATS and 17-46 SU in non-conference games for 2007. Miami (OH) was a dismal 1-4 in their non-conference schedule and their only win came against a horrible Minnesota team. Vanderbilt lost several players off their offense from last year, but they retain most of their skill players including their QB. Defensively they have been touted as having the best secondary in the SEC this season. Their defense should be fairly solid. The only question I have about this team is the offensive line. But, here is a recent quote from Coach Johnson, "We're just trying to get the very best combination. We've worked several in case somebody gets hurt now or during the season. We've got to have guys be able to play multiple positions. Coach (Robbie) Caldwell does a great job of that. Are they going to be dead-letter perfect the first day? No, but I think they've got a great understanding of what we want to do offensively. We've designed some things around them. We're not as big as we were last year, but I think we're more athletic. We'll try to use their speed and quickness to our advantage and not ask them to do some of the things we'd ask a 325-pounder like Chris Williams to do." I don't need for Vandy to win 6 games this season and go to a bowl. I just need for them to win this game. I'm laying money on an SEC team to win SU over a MAC team.
Nevada -20.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- I have Nevada as a "play-on" team this season as I think they are coming together to be an impact team in the WAC conference. Offensively they will be explosive. There is no weaknesses on the offensive side of the ball as they bring back 8 starters with depth. Colin Kaepernick has won the starting QB job, but Nick Graziano will play a lot this season as well. Kaepernick is a running style QB and Graziano is the passer. The only thing that needs to get better for this team is the defense, and in a conference where offense wins games, does it really matter? It's not going to matter much in this game against Grambling St, Nevada should run all over them . . . .
Texas -23 for 2.5 UNITS and FAU +24.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- I bought this bet back. Small opportunity to middle here.
South Carolina -12 for 2.5 UNITS -- Last season during the Bowl season, I started looking at games in a very simple way -- who is the better team and who is capable of covering the spread? Answering those simple questions turned out giving me one of the most successful Bowl seasons to date. I vowed to use some of that same capping whenever the new season started. This game is one of those games where I am implementing the method of "keeping it simple." Last year, was touted as the year South Carolina would have a "break out" season and compete for the SEC title. After starting 6-1, they lost the rest of their games. They have had to live with that failure for 7 months. Not much has changed since last year personnel wise, but South Carolina will have to find a new QB. They have three good ones to choose from but as yet, Spurrier is not revealing who has chosen. It will not matter. Whoever wins the job they will do well behind an experienced line and with good skill players. To top that, they bring back 10 starters on the defensive side of the ball. NCST is a lower tiered team in a weaker conference. They also received the bad news of losing their bets WR this week. An SC two TD cover is very doable here as we keep it simple and just take the better team from a stronger conference playing on their home turf.
Northwestern -12 for 2.5 UNITS -- In order for lowly Syracuse to win this game, they have to score more points than Northwestern. That's not likely to happen for a Syracuse team that only averaged 16.5 ppg last season but allowed nearly 35 ppg from their opponents. Syracuse, as we all know, is nothing special, but they are even less special away from the dome and on the road. Syracuse is going to a new style of offense this year that emphasizes the run game. It just so happens that Northwestern strongest feature defensively this year will be the defensive line. Last season they defended the run game better than the passing game. So, Syracuse looks to play into the strengths of Northwestern both offensively and defensively.
Colorado -11 for 2.5 UNITS -- I am still waiting to see if the line will go down on this game before I make the wager, but I WILL be making the wager on Colorado. About the only good thing thing Colorado State had going for them last season (and the two seasons before that) was QB, Caleb Hanie. Hanie threw for 2,455 yards and had a completion percentage of 64.2 percent. Even with that though they finished 3-9 SU and 5-6 ATS. I had them pegged as a "play on" team with all the returning experience they had, including their star RB, Kyle Bell. But, it appears that poor recruiting over the past several years has settled into this team giving pitiful results. It was time for Sonny Lubick to retire, but the inadequacy of his job performance will linger on with this team for 3 or 4 years I am afraid. As it stands, they will be breaking in a new QB with little to no game experience. Thy will try to rely on the run, but Colorado's strength will be against the run as they return several starters and a lot of experience on their defensive line and at the linebacking spots. On the other side of the ball, we know that Hawkins' offenses are usually full of surprises and he likes to pass. It just so happens that CSU will be breaking in a new defensive secondary this year. Can you say, "checkmate?" CSU cannot exploit any of Colorado's weaknesses and Colorado can exploit all of CSU's weaknesses. This game is a no-brainer to me.
Oregon -13.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- Oregon lost Dixon at QB and Stewart at RB from last year and I expect a bit of a drop off from those positions early in the season, but they still have some great talent they will be plugging into these positions. Whoever they plug into the skill positions they will be playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the PAC 10. So, with Washington's inexperienced defensive front and LBs, I expect Oregon to control the line of scrimmage which is a huge factor in my capping. Defensively, Oregon will be solid this year. With a new RB and new receiving corps for Washington, the Huskies are going to have to rely on Locker to to run the ball for them again this season. Locker has been sidelined the last couple of days with a strained hamstring. That's an injury that is hard to heal with the rigors of an intense Fall practice schedule. I expect this injury to linger for several weeks if not get worse. Couple this with the fact that their leading tackler, linebacker EJ Savannah is ineligible for the season, and Washington, a 4-9 team from last year, is starting in a very deep hole to begin the season. I love leaning to the home teams at the beginning of the season for ATS wins and I think Oregon has Washington at a distinct disadvantage in this game.
Tennessee -5.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- This is another one of those "line" situations where Tennessee should control the the line on both sides of the ball. UCLA has to replace their entire offensive line and most of their defensive line and linebackers. Tennessee brings back their entire offensive line and great talent on their defensive line along with their entire defensive backfield. Last season's road opener on the West Coast didn't go well for Tennessee, but California was a much better team than UCLA is expected to be and that experience should help Tennessee this season in this game. Word is Ben Olson, one of the players contending for the starting position at QB, has reinjured his foot again. This is not verified yet, but even if it isn't true, Tennessee is the obvious play in this game.
Oklahoma -48 for 2.5 UNITS -- This one is simple, guys. Last year after coming off a bowl loss to Boise, Oklahoma opened up the season with North Texas and hung 79 points on them beating NT by 69 points. This year they start with Chattanooga who is worse than North Texas was last season. Although there are some questions that will have to be answered for the Sooners at linebacker and in the defensive backfield, the defense will not get tested with Chatty's offense. Word is that Chatty lost their QB as well. Oklahoma will cover easily by 50+.
Arizona -27.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- I was pretty high on Arizona in the preseason last year because I thought with their defense they could have a good year as new offensive coordinator Sonny Dykes looked like the savior to the former stale offense of Arizona. For the first year of a new offensive system, Arizona didn't do too bad. They averaged 28 ppg on the season and Tuitama stayed healthy and looked very good. What I didn't plan on was Arizona's defense not showing up. They were suppose to be one of the top 4 defenses in the conference, but they ended up tying for 6th place defensively in the conference. Several sources in the "know" cited internal problems between players. Whenever the season was all said and done, they went a disappointing 5-7 SU & 6-5 ATS. This year, expectations are very high offensively as 10 starters return in the second year of the offensive system. I think Arizona is really going to put up some points this season. Defensively, the problem elements of last season are gone. While you will not recognize any BIG names on the defensive roster, you will likely see a team playing more unified than they did last year. Plenty of stopping power remains on this side of the ball. Their opener is at home against the weakest team in a weak conference -- Idaho. Idaho allowed 37 ppg last season with an experienced defensive unit. This year, they bring back only 4 starters defensively. Offensively they bring back 10 -- off a unit that only averaged 21 ppg in a weak conference. Stoops' job is in the balance this season and the Wildcats need to get off to a fast start. I don't look for him to call off the hounds in this opener in front of the fans that have some doubt about him and his team.
Troy -6 fro 2.5 UNITS -- Once again, we have a major mismatch on the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Whenever Troy has the ball, they will be defending their backfield with an offensive line that brings back everybody from last year 2 DEEP! They will be breaking in new starters at QB and RB, but both their starters have experience and are expected to be good. On the defensive side of the ball, Troy brings back 3 of their 4 defensive line starters and plug some holes in LB position and DL with JUCO transfers that carry some experience. They will be going against a depleted Middle Tennessee St offensive line that has lost the starters and second string reserves at both center and right tackle. They were already breaking in a new starter at right guard. MTSU brings back an experienced QB and RB, but behind a depleted line like this, they will not be very successful. To make matters worse, they only have one starter coming back at receiver. 3 of the 4 receivers, including the TE, will be new starters. Guys, it's very simple here, Troy will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. This is an obvious bet on Troy.
Oklahoma State -5.5 (bought hook) for 5 UNITS -- I could be getting my ass in a ringer laying these early bets. If something happens to QB, Zac Robinson for O-State or Willie Tuitama in the Arizona bet, I could be shit out of luck (I'd have to buy the bets back and lose what juice I would lose.) BUT, that sometimes is the risks you take betting early games. The thing is, I don't think these lines are going to be getting any better, so I want to play some of these games at the lines I can get now. I've mentioned in another thread that Oklahoma State is probably looking the best they have looked since Les Miles left the program. Gundy has definitely put together a team this season that will compete in the Big 12 South. Not only will they be proficient offensively . . . . again . . . . . but they are also showing good speed and playability on the defensive side of the ball. In order to win on the road, you have to be able to play defense. This has been Oklahoma State's problem in the past. I see them much improved defensively this season and WSU will be taking a step backwards in their program. This is a really good valued line for a game being played on a semi-neutral field.
Rice -3 for 2.5 UNITS -- I liked this bet whenever the lines first came out because June Jones' system is so complex I knew it would be hard for SMU to start the season with any kind of consistency on the team. Now, as of today (8/19), we get word that the veteran QB and Mustang record holder, Willis, will be dropped to 3rd string in favor of two younger QB prospects. It's now less than 2 weeks from gameday and Jones has still not decided on a starting QB. You can expect mistakes and inconsistency for the play of the traveling QB in this game as well as with his team mates. On the other side of the ball, Rice is in the second year of their new coach's system and they return 16 starters off last year's team. This will be a Friday night game with everyone's eyes focused on Houston to see Jones' debut as the new Mustang's coach. Great spot here for a Rice win and cover.
USC -19.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- Virginia has been literally decimated by players either going professional or being kicked off team due to academics (including Sewell the QB). I'm big on offensive line strength and Virginia only has two players with experience coming back to protect a rookie QB (whoever it will be). USC will eat them up! USC has a "bye week" following the Virginia game and before the Ohio State game. That eliminates a "look ahead" spot in Virginia game. USC will be focused. It will be a slaughter . . . . we may not need to bet any other game this weekend.
TOTAL Plays
Tulsa/UAB UNDER 68 for 2.5 UNITS -- I know that people will look at this play and think, "Neither one of these teams play any defense, I'm not playing an UNDER on this game." BUT, both teams have been emphasizing the defensive play in the offseason and BOTH teams will start this game with rookie QBs. Usually, first games between teams with new QBs is a good UNDER play. I'm expecting a game where the offense struggles a bit and the defense will look better than it actually is . . .
Wyoming/Ohio UNDER 54.5 for 2.5 UNITS -- Ohio is starting a new QB and RB on the road here in this game, but Solich's teams have always played decent defense. Wyoming is known to be subject to turnovers and I am factoring that in to this UNDER as well. I have Wyoming down as an UNDER type team this season.
California/Michigan State UNDER 59 for 2.5 UNITS -- I just think this score is too high for two teams that will likely be better defensively than they will offensively this season, especially at the start of the season.
Prop Bet: Boise State UNDER 9.5 wins for the season for 2 UNITS -- Boise has to replace a starting QB and almost their entire starting offensive line. With non-conference games at Southern Mississippi and Oregon and some improved WAC teams this season, I think grabbing more than 9 wins this season will be too tough for Boise.
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Originally Posted by Mr_Jinks
.. I bet your bookie loves you.
