Notre Dame a strong bet to go bowling
Coming off a disastrous 3-9 campaign in 2007, Charlie Weis and Notre Dame look for a big rebound in 2008 with a softer schedule and extra experience under their belts. Weis also brought in Jon Tenuta to serve as his assitant and retool what was a porous defense in 2007, allowing over 32 points per game their first 10 contests before finishing the season with a pair of victories over Duke and Stanford.
Don’t shed a tear for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
They may have just suffered through their worst season since 1963, but how many other 3-9 college football teams get to be on national television eight times the following year? It’ll take a lot more than one lousy campaign to damage the reputation of one of the most famous and beloved teams in the country.
Two years in a row might do it. However, it looks like the Fighting Irish will be back in somewhat competitive form this year. The Over/Under for Notre Dame victories is seven – enough to go bowling again. And the “exact games” odds suggest the Irish could go even higher:
- Nine wins: 9-2
- Eight wins: 5-2
- Seven wins: 2-1
- Six wins: 7-2
- Five wins: 6-1
Although nine wins seems like a lot after last year’s debacle, it’s actually entirely reasonable. Last year’s Notre Dame team was starting from square one after the loss of nearly all its top-shelf talent. Quarterback Brady Quinn went to the Cleveland Browns. Wide receiver Jeff Samardzija went to the Chicago Cubs as a relief pitcher. And the defensive front seven was nothing like the unit that went to two consecutive BCS bowls.
Irish supporters have been calling for Charlie Weis’ head on a platter. That might be the worst thing that could happen at South Bend. Weis is one of the top recruiters in the sport, and the talent he’s stockpiled will compete for a national championship in 2009.
This year, Notre Dame fans will have to content themselves with 100-1 betting odds and the prospects of a relatively minor bowl game. But how minor? The 2008 schedule for the Irish happens to be incredibly favorable to the Irish:
Sept. 6 San Diego State
Sept. 13 Michigan
Sept. 20 at Michigan State
Sept. 27 Purdue
Oct. 4 Stanford
Oct. 11 at North Carolina
Oct. 25 at Washington
Nov. 1 Pitt
Nov. 8 at Boston College
Nov. 15 Navy (at Baltimore)
Nov. 22 Syracuse
Nov. 29 at USC
Other than road games at Boston College and USC in November, Notre Dame is hardly in over its head. Michigan is in its first year of rebuilding under new coach Rich Rodriguez. Purdue isn’t anything special once you get past QB Curtis Painter. Navy is also operating under a new coach (Ken Niumatalolo) and is ranked No. 72 in the Lindy's College Football Preview, compared to No. 59 for Notre Dame. If Notre Dame takes those three, eight wins is almost a formality.
But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. Better to look at the known quantities on the field. QB Jimmy Clausen was bigger and stronger in camp this spring – about 20 pounds bigger, and throwing the ball with some zing. Clausen should get the opportunity to use that arm for a change after getting sacked 58 times last year. His offensive line still isn’t among the best in the nation, but its four returning starters are a year older and wiser.
Notre Dame’s defense can also expect better days in 2008. Jon Tenuta has been imported from Georgia Tech to act as Weis’ assistant; he’ll handle the linebackers, while Corwin Brown coaches the defensive backs. Tenuta’s expected to add some blitz packages to the conservative 3-4 defense. Even the special teams, which were awful last year, look better on paper with punter Eric Maust taking over full time and place-kicker Brandon Walker (6-for-12 last year) entering his sophomore season.
All these improvements add up to what should be a good season in South Bend. Maybe even good enough for the Cotton Bowl. Maybe not, but at least handicappers will have the rare luxury of betting an undervalued Notre Dame team.