Can the Big East possibly be as bad this season as they were last season? In a word, yes. The Conference will be hit very hard by graduation, NFL defections, and coaching changes. Still, we have to pick someone, so here goes.
1. Rutgers. Why? Because they have 10 starters returning on offense. This is head coach Schlano's chance to prove that he is a legitimate head coach and that Rutgers has a legitimate program. They get a huge break in the schedule, playing West Virginia, South Florida, Pitt and Cincinnati at home. If they can find any semblence of a defense, they should be the favorites to win the Big East.
2. Cincinnati. The Bearcats return their QB, RB, and some WR's but must replace 3 on the line. The defense returns intact. If that defense can improve, look for Cincinnati to be back in the fight for the Big East crown. If not, it will be a long season. Butch Jones will feel a little heat this season.
3. Pittsburgh. Pitt got ripped by the early defections of RB Lewis, FB Hynoski, and WR Baldwin. The good news is that the offsesive line will have plenty of experience, and the defense loses only 3 starters. Pitt plays 8 home games this season, but their non-con schedule includes a game at Iowa, and Notre Dame and Utah at home. If new HC Graham can find an offense, Pitt will be the thick of things.
4. South Florida. Holtz did an admirable job with this team last season. The bad news is that only 5 starters return on each side of the ball. The good news is that QB Daniels is one of those returnees. I liked the way USF finished the season, even though they lost a tough game to UConn. Holtz returns to South Bend for game one against Notre Dame. That may tell us how he will fare in 2011.
5. West Virginia. It's not so much the fact that the defense gets ripped by graduations and defections. They lose 8 starters. It is not so much that RB Devine and 3 others depart from the offense. What hurts West Virginia is their current coaching fiasco. I do not like "lame duck" head coaches, and that is what Stewart is. This cannot be a good thing for the team. West Virginia goes into a transitional state this season.
6. UConn. UConn loses their top playmakers on offense, plus a couple of linemen. They also lose 4 on the defense including two LB's. But the biggest loss came when Randy Edsell headed South to Maryland. Enter Paul Pasqualoni, the long time former head coach of Syracuse. He has been out of football for 6 years. Let's give him a year to get his feet wet before we go looking for a championship. He does have a very soft non-con schedule.
7. Lousiville. A solid first season under Charlie Strong may bode well for the Cards, but the still lose a lot of talent. Gone is QB Froman and 4 of the starting 5 offensive linemen, as well as 5 starters on defense. A very challenging schedule sees the Cards playing North Carolina, Kentucky, and 4 Big East teams on the road. Will Strong have another successful year, or will the sophmore jinx strike yet again?
8. Syracuse. It is tough picking the Orange this low after such a successful season in 2010, but graduation really kills them. They lose 6 on offense, including 4 on the line, and 8 starters on defense, including all 3 LB's and 3 in the secondary. HC Marrone has a huge rebuilding job ahead of him. Well, at least he gets to take a trip to sunny California when he plays USC in Los Angeles.
Just a note here. This is by far, the toughest conference to call. Any one of the eight teams can win this conference, or finish dead last. The winner could have 4 losses, and the last place team could have 4 wins.
Next up: The Big 10 Leaders.