[Las Vegas Tom]

From the Dual Threat Sports website:

Auburn - Oregon UNDER 73

There is no doubt that both of these teams are more than capable of putting up a lot of points tonight. However I have a sneaking suspicion that we might see a slightly lower scoring contest than the scoreboard-breaking offensive shootout that everyone is calling for. Only three of the dozen BCS title games to date have seen 70 or more points. Even the most dominant offenses in college football history have tended to get bogged down in this game. In the past ten BCS title games, the two teams came in averaging a combined 79 points per game during the regular season. But in the big game they averaged a combined 52 ppg, a drop of nearly 35 percent.

In addition the strength of each defense tonight seems well-suited to slow down the opposing offense. Oregon runs the football nearly 62% of the time, averaging 5.90 ypr vs teams that allow 4.47. However Auburn’s run defense is stout, allowing 3.50 ypr vs teams that avg 4.29. Auburn is ranked # 10 in the nation vs the run and Oregon didn’t face a top-10 rushing defense all season; the closest was Arizona State, which finished the season 18th against the run, and held Oregon to a season-low 145 yards on Sept. 25.

Oregon gives up just 117.6 rushing yards per game and hasn't allowed more than 136 since surrendering 177 to Stanford (the Cardinal average 211.0). Oregon is extremely light up front, relying on quickness rather than bulk to slow down opposing runners. The Duck’s attacking style D has forced 35 turnovers (ranking them second nationally), and their 90 tackles for loss are eighth-best in the land. With their speed and generally aggressive philosophy under defensive coordinator Nick Aliotti, statistically, Oregon's in prime position to at least get white jerseys in Newton's face.

Auburn’s pass-defense stats aren’t good. The Tigers surrender 250.5 passing yards per game, and only 13 teams nationally have allowed more. In addition, Auburn has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 62.7 percent of their passes—one of the 25 worst figures in the nation—and have allowed 39 passes of at least 20 yards, among the worst 40 defensive performances in the country. The Tigers have given up 23 TD passes and have just 10 picks. However Auburn also faced six top 50 passing offenses (7 if you include South Carolina twice) and three top 10 pass efficiency QBs. Oregon ranks 44th in passing offense and 18th in pass efficiency. One other thing I found very interesting is that South Carolina receiver Alshon Jeffery, Alabama’s Julio Jones, Georgia’s A.J. Greene and Arkansas’ Greg Childs had huge days against this Auburn secondary. All four of them will be playing on Sunday’s next year, whereas Oregon’s leading receiver Jeff Maehl is a solid possession receiver with good hands and OK speed. In other words I don’t believe he is the same caliber athlete that these elite SEC receivers previously mentioned are.

Auburn doesn't throw the ball all that much; the Tigers had the fewest passing attempts in the SEC and only four teams nationally -- the four that run the triple-option -- have thrown it less often. But when Cameron Newton does throw it, he has been incredibly successful. He leads the nation in passing efficiency and is completing 67.1 percent of his attempts; he has thrown for 2,589 yards and 28 TDs, with just six picks. The Ducks, meanwhile, have a formidable pass defense, ranking sixth in the nation in pass efficiency D and allowing a stingy 5.7 yards per pass (# 1 in the country). Granted, Newton will represent the best statistical quarterback the team has faced all season, but even Stanford star Andrew Luck was limited to a 131 QB rating against the Ducks in a two-interception performance.

In the final analysis, despite nearly every indicator pointing towards an offensive shootout, I believe it is defense that will ultimately separate these two teams tonight and I suspect we will see a few more punts than anticipated in this Championship game.

[Ralphie88]

Good analysis.