[Lucky1g]

Submitted by nick on Sun, 2011-01-09 00:00
DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich

WHAT VEGAS SHAPRS ARE THINKING
ABOUT MONDAY'S BCS CHAMPIONSHIP

We've seen a very interesting ebb and flow over the past several weeks in terms of sharp betting (money coming in from professional wagerers) in the Auburn-Oregon national championship game that will be played Monday Night.

You'll recall that the regular season ended with Oregon looking great, and Auburn falling way behind Alabama before rallying to win at the very end. The Tigers would go on to overpower South Carolina in the SEC Championship game. But, sharps haven't thought much of South Carolina over the second half of the season. So, the lingering memories were:

*Auburn isn't a juggernaut in big games.
*Oregon is a juggernaut vs. everyone.

Oddsmakers who wanted to bring in early action to their stores put out a feeler line of Oregon around -1.5 or -2 depending on the place. Most sportsbooks in Nevada and offshore have become very timid about posting openers. They'd rather let a few places take some guesses, then they can get a read of the market and post a number after sharps bet those first numbers. Sharps made it clear at the early stores that they thought Oregon minus was CRAZY. They jumped all over Auburn, and moved Auburn up to near a field goal as a favorite.

Most sportsbooks opened Auburn -3 because they saw that initial passion for Auburn at anything less than a field goal. And, honestly, the oddsmakers who opened Oregon the favorite were stunned that they had misread the market by that much.

Then...once the number sat at three for a bit, you started to hear many sharps suggesting Oregon had become a steal. The guys who liked Oregon anyway weren't going to bet them as favorites. And, they didn't want to jump in front of the Auburn betting bandwagon until it stopped. It stopped at three...and Duck backers said 'we'll take that field goal thank you very much!'

We were basically at a point where Auburn money would lay -2.5, and Oregon money would take +3. Then, as we got deeper into the bowls:

*Alabama and Mississippi State looked great on New Year's Day, suggesting that Auburn might have been even better than expected. They're all in the same division. Auburn is undefeated, so they obviously beat those two teams. The Oregon backers got a bit timid, and the Auburn backers started to strut.

*Stanford of the Pac 10 looked FANTASTIC against Virginia Tech this past Monday Night, completely turning that around. Oregon beat Stanford by 21 points you'll recall...and Stanford looked like a juggernaut against a respected opponent. Now the Auburn guys lost some confidence, and the Oregon money started coming in much stronger.

Squares (the general public) generally don't bet until game day. That's their nature. It was a little different this weekend because Wildcard Weekend had sportsbooks packed, and you might as well bet the big Monday Night game while you're at the window. BEFORE the squares made their presence felt, sharps had driven the line down to Auburn by only 2. It was 2.5 in some places.

Line moves you see on Sunday and Monday will most likely be driven by the public. If you're wondering what the SHARPS think about the game, it's pretty clear now that:

*The MAJORITY of sharps like Oregon +3.

*Auburn money was happy at numbers below three, but has kind of dried up even with the weekend moves down below that key number. They bet early at lines they liked, but they didn't 're-invest' when the line dropped back down. There wasn't much support for Auburn at -3.

*Nobody's touched the total yet because sharps hate numbers this high. If the public bets Over (which may be hard for them at something like 74), sharps would come in on the Under.

What do I think about the game? Sometimes I agree with the sharps. Sometimes I think they've missed a key that's likely to determine the flow of the game. Remember that sharps took a bath on New Year's Day fading the SEC. They're not always right. The Alabama line came down two points, and Alabama won huge. The Mississippi State line came down two points, and Mississippi State won huge. Florida came down a bit too, and the Gators got the money vs. Penn State.

[Going4Broke]

Thanks for the info, I'm on Oregon already but pretty small so far.