How does nevada not destroy bc in this game. Just their season point differential alone is astonishing, +20 ish against -2 or something! Someone please tell me why i am wrong. Line movement baffles me. Who could take bc in this game. Hope the big $ keeps coming in on bc, cause i liked nevada at -9, love them at 7.5!
First off, BC has one of the best bowl records around. Secondly is the following information from ESPN's Chad Millman's column on betting in which he gets Vegas sharps to give their opinions on the games.
"Nevada opened as a 10.5-point favorite. BC is a good defense, really rock solid. And they are playing a gimmicky offense. The one thing we have seen out of Nevada is that once it takes time off it tends to lose the rhythm. Last year it lost as 12-point favorites to SMU in the Hawaii Bowl. And the year before they lost as favorites in the Humanitarian Bowl. The year before that in the New Mexico Bowl they got shut out. It's a track record of failure. Repeatedly in season openers they have been beaten, too. The pistol can be unstoppable when it's in rhythm. But against really good defenses it struggles. That is why the money has poured in on BC."
- This will be the first time BC's defense has seen a pistol offense (see http://espn.go.com/blog/acc/post/_/i...n-talks-nevada). Yeah, BC has great linebackers, and plenty of time to prepare, but it's still a big task. I see Nevada breaking some big plays, and I expect some of those to be Vai Taua between the tackles.
- Be careful banking much on what happened to Nevada in their bowl game last year. Last year, Nevada was the first team in NCAA history to have three 1,000+ rushers and two of them couldn’t play in the bowl game (one had an injury and the other, Taua, had grades issues). So Nevada had to go with backup running backs. Also, last year, Nevada had a terrible defense, one of the worst secondaries in the country. Nevada has a new defensive coordinator, and a pretty solid defense this year. I personally think that Nevada's rotten bowl history is going to be a source of motivation for a few of Nevada's upperclassmen, especially Taua.
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