[Lucky1g]

Nick: Sharps and This Week's Bowls


Submitted by nick on Mon, 2011-01-03 00:00

DIRECT FROM NEVADA
With Oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich
WHAT SHARPS ARE THINKING ABOUT
THIS WEEK'S BOWL SCHEDULE
The college football bowl schedule slows down quite a bit since we're past New Year's. There are still some great games to get excited about. But, we're talking about one game per night rather than four or six per day!
The sharps (professional wagerers) have pretty well established what they think about this week's games. I'm going to cover everything from Monday night through Sunday Night in this article. My next college football report will be just in time for the Auburn-Oregon game in the BCS Championship game scheduled for Monday Night January 13th. You NFL fans, note that my rundown of what the sharps are thinking about Wildcard Weekend will run Friday morning
There are some marquee matchups in the colleges this week. Let's see what the sharps think.
ORANGE BOWL
Virginia Tech vs. Stanford: Oddsmakers opened this game at pick-em, and sharps POUNDED the line up to Stanford by a field goal very quickly. Some of that was support for the Pac 10, which is the local major conference for sharps out here in Nevada. Sharps really are impressed with this Stanford team. No doubt about that. Virginia Tech also has some injury issues. And, recent reports say they'll be shorthanded at running back because of a first quarter suspension. THAT news has moved the line to Stanford by 3.5 in some places. We may see some sharps come in on the dog close to kickoff. There's no reason for Virginia Tech money to hit the board until the number stops rising.
SUGAR BOWL
Arkansas vs. Ohio State: Sharps were initially supporting Ohio State here, as an opener of -2.5 went up to -3 quickly. Sharps took a humongous hit over the weekend with their support of the Big Ten though. Most loved the Big Ten dogs vs. the SEC favorites, and lost badly. That definitely has a lot of guys thinking about Arkansas in this one. Arkansas is in a hunk that's even with or better than the composite of Mississippi State, Florida, and Alabama. Ohio State's better than Penn State-Michigan State-Michigan...but by how much? We may see this line come down before kickoff. Squares (the public) may bet that way too given what they watched on TV Saturday. The total is down from 58 to 56. But, Unders guys weren't very happy on New Year's either.
GO DADDY BOWL
Middle Tennessee vs. Miami of Ohio: Sharps pounded Middle Tennessee early, driving a line that was +3 down to pick-em. I'm even seeing MTSU as a 1-point favorite out there as I write this. Miami was lucky to win the MAC championship. They're more in the class of teams who have been struggling like Ohio and Toledo. Those two struggled against Sun Belt opposition in Troy and Florida International respectively. Sharps are rooting for MTSU to make it a clean sweep. The totals guys are waiting to see the weather forecast for Mobile before making any stands.
COTTON BOWL
Texas AM vs. LSU: LSU opened at pick-em, and is up to -1. Given the strong showing by the SEC West on New Year's (Alabama and Mississippi State), LSU may get more support by kickoff. You can definitely expect that if Arkansas from that division impresses against Ohio State. Oklahoma and Oklahoma State did win and over from the Big 12 South. Texas AM isn't quite seen at that level, which makes it less likely the Aggies will be bet to a favorite. Nothing yet on the total in a game that will be played on in the Dallas Cowboys home cathedral.
BBVA COMPASS BOWL
Pittsburgh vs. Kentucky: Pittsburgh received a lot of support here, crossing a critical number in a move from the opener of -2 to the -3.5 I'm seeing as I write this. Now, this game won't be played until Saturday. And, it's not a matchup the public is going to deal with until game day (if then because it's an NFL playoff day). If you see moves between now and then, consider those sharp moves. As of now, sharps loved Pittsburgh early, and there wasn't a buy back on the dog at +3.5. Also note that South Carolina of the SEC East didn't cover, Florida from that division needed a late pick six to cover vs. Penn State, Georgia lost outright to Central Florida, and Tennessee failed to cover too (but that was a toughie). The center of power in the SEC is in the West right now, not the East. Kentucky's in the East.
KRAFT FIGHT HUNGER BOWL
Nevada vs. Boston College: Nevada opened at a very high -10.5. Sharps thought that was way too much given their soft defense, and their horrible bowl performance vs. SMU last year. We're now seeing Nevada -7.5. It's important that the line hasn't made it to -7. I think Nevada would get hit if it went that low (from middles players if nobody else). The key number of 10 was crossed though, and left in the dust. Almost a full week left before this one is played. So, monitor line moves through the week for more guidance on what the sharps are thinking.

[The fiddler]

LMAO at the "sharps" What a load of bullshit. There is no such thing as "sharps"...just bookie lingo to make the average Joe public bettor feel inferior. These "sharps" know absolutely nothing more than I do.

Look at how the money barreled in on Michigan, Michigan State, UConn.....case rested.