SBR Top-Rated Sportsbooks
Sweet sugarbowl selection
Razorbacks (AR) / Buckeyes (OH) at The Superdome:
When looking at their strength of schedules and wins, each team appears to be a solid oppenent for one another. With AR 10-2 and OH 11-1, and both on a roll, what's the play? Let's first look at what they've done lately? AR 5-0 ATS in their last 5, with OH being 4-0-1. AR covering easily at home as a 20+ point favorite, against Vandy and UTEP. OH covering easily as a 17+ point favorite in 4 of those last 5, against Purdue, @ Minn, Penn ST & Michigan. [I'll qualify the OH win over Penn ST as easy, even though they only covered by 4 points, by the fact that OH outscored Penn ST in the 2nd half by 35-0]. AR won as a 4 point dog at S. Caro, and OH (favored by 3) pushed at Iowa. In each of their prior games, AR favored by 3.5 won over LSU 31-23, and OH favored by 17 beat the Wolverines 37-7. Nothing really stands out that favors one over the other here. If anything, I'd say with AR's opponents of LSU, S. Caro & Miss ST each being ranked in the top 25, and with none of OH's last 5 opponents currently ranking in the top 25, that AR has had the tougher schedule.
What to look for next is their rankings. With OH being ranked # 6, and AR being ranked # 8, how much tougher was AR's schedule if OH is ranked higher? Naturally having 2 losses, verse having only 1, is the reason OH is ranked higher then AR. However, with AR appearing to have the tougher schedule, how much value is in those rankings? Is this setup for the lower ranked and thus seemingly inferior AR, to upset OH? How much inferior, if at all, is AR to OH? Better check your stats.
Stats as follows:
In the 6 main (per game averages) categories, pts for/against, pass yds/rush yds, pass D/rush D ... OH takes 5 of 6. The only 1 of 6 AR takes, is in pass yds (338 to 229), which to me is the least important category of the 6. Pts for is about the same, with OH 39 & AR 37, I'd give a couple to AR for the tougher schedule. Pts against is the most important category, with OH's paltry 13.3, verse AR's 22.8. Even if you give AR a couple here on the strength of schedule, OH giving up an average of less than 14 points per game is impressive, and signs of an extremely tight D. Now next to D, what wins football games is the ability to run the ball, and then stop the run.
Being able to run the ball controls the game, the tempo, and keeps their D on the field while your D rests. In rush yds, OH exceeded AR by 70 yds/game (220 vs. 150). Being able to rush for over 200 yds per game is HUGE! How about stopping the run? While AR gave up over 157 on the ground, OH gave up less than 100. In fact, OH gave up less than 95! Giving up less than 95 rush yds per game is even more HUGE!!
In pass D, OH is 156 to AR's 182. OH on overall scoring is ranked # 11, to AR's ranking of # 16. OH's D on overall points is # 3, to AR's # 44. Having the number 3 D, and the ability to run, here you start to lean towards taking OH, and seriously looking at the Under.
Breaking down the teams' prior games:
AR's QB Mallett threw for 320 yds on only 13 of 23 completions. One bomb to Cobi Hamilton that went for 85 yds, is how you get those kind of stats. I venture to say, Mallett will not be throwing for over 300 yds against OH's D, and certainly not 300+ on just 13 catches. Mallett was sacked four (4) times, and threw 2 INT's. He rushed 5 times for -15 yds, and a long of just 4 (which doesn't seem that he's too mobile).
OH's QB Pryor completed 18 of 27 for 220 yds, while using six (6) different receivers (IN AR's last game Mallett only used 4 different receivers). Pryor was sacked once, and threw one INT. Pryor rushed 12 times for +49 yds., and having a QB who can scramble, makes it a lot tougher on D.
Mallett being sacked 4 times, and rushing for negative yards, has me leaning more towards OH. Pryor throwing to six (6) different guys, and being able to run, poses a decent threat by OH's O not to mention the run game with Daniel Herron for over 8 yds a carry on the ground.
Figure OH's D will keep Mallett from running, and OH double teams Hamilton his biggest threat. OH's linebackers neutralize Wright & Adams, and so what's AR got left? Knile Davis. Davis had 30 carries for 152 yds with a long of only 14. Doesn't seem as potent an O to me compared to a QB who can run for 12 times averaging 4.1 per run, having six (6) guys to throw to, and six (6) more guys who can run the ball. AR D better be on its toes. Herron's longest run in his last game went for 89 big ones.
As always, comes down to who controls the line, and who can run/move the ball. If had the time, another great stat to know is the size of the starting linemen. Who has the bigger/stronger guys up front, and also who has seniority? Like to have those seniors who'll play their butts off, and not have those freshmen who tend to make costly mistakes.
Now to check the teams' recent Bowl histories:
AR has lost 7 of their last 10 Bowl games, beating E. Caro by only 3 last year, for 1 of their 3 wins. Really starting to not like AR at all today against OH. OH has lost 5 of their last 10 Bowl games, however, last year they defeated Oregon in the Rose Bowl. The AR post season, fact is they've only won 3 of their last 16 Bowl games (OH has won 8 of their last 16). OH shut down a very high powered offense in last year's Rose Bowl. Ducks scored like 40 points a game easy, but in a big game against OH, Ducks could only muster 17. Those Ducks, are the team that is playing for this year's Championship. So in last year's postseason, you got AR squeaking by E. Caro 20-17. and OH roses over a strong OR.
Checking on the head coaches:
Bobby Petrino and Jim Tressel ... who you got? Petrino (born in 1961), has only been at AR for 3 years. Tressel (born in 1952), is in his 10th season at OH. In his 2nd year at OH (in 2002), OH under Tressel won it all going 14-0, which hadn't been done by a major college football team since 1897 (when Penn went 15-0). Since then, OH's record under Tressel is a lofty 11-2, 8-4, 10-2, 12-1, 11-2, 10-3, 11-2, and 11-1 (so far this season). Definitely doing something right, knows how to win, and Tressel is 105-22 career at OH. Petrino is 23-14 career at AR. Petrino most assuredly, will have his hands full of Tressel, and the only way I see AR winning this game is if Davis outruns Herron. You think Petrino can figure out how to accomplish that over Tressel? I don't.
Here's how the line looks:
Basically it's OH -3, with some having OH -3.5. When looking at the line history, it appears many Books that offer -3 now, at some point were offering -3.5 and so seems a majority like AR +3.5. Bookmaker & Diamond for example were OH -3.5 on 1/1/11, but now are at OH -3. Evidently seems too many are on AR +3.5, and that caused it to go to AR + 3 at many Books. To the layman, getting 3 plus the hook looks tempting. OH winning by a field goal, and not covering 3.5, is what all those +3.5 takers forsee. Figure a lot of Joe Public is on AR +3.5, and fading Joe P. is usually a smart play.
Now whether you take OH -3 or -3.5, you're betting OH wins by 4 or more. So when the Book dangles that hook, and lures in more $ on AR, I say give it and look for OH to win by double digits. After Pinnaclesports opened the line at -3, they're one of the Books still offering -3.5. Pinny saying, you want that hook, come and get it. Meanwhile, if you give the hook, +106 odds. OH -3.5 at Pinny was as high as +111 odds, and since has dropped to the +106. Seems some are with me in giving that dreaded hook, and expecting AR to be outcoached, outplayed and outscored by at least 4. Then, AR folds like AR basically does at this time of year, and bows to an illustrious OH Program.
Keys:
Got OH as the #3 D in the nation, giving up an average of less than 14 points/game, and not giving up any cheap points. Got OH who can run, and AR who can't stop the run. Got OH with a QB that can scramble and spread the ball around, and AR with a QB who in his last game was sacked four (4) times, ran for negative yards, and threw to just 4 different receivers for just 13 completions. Got OH with the program, the coach, the win. OH shutting down high-powered OR in last year's Rose Bowl, and AR squeaking by E. Caro, the play today is O. State. AR is a solid team, and give Petrino some props for making his team much better each year he's been there. Though to win a game like this, in prime-time, on nationwide TV, it's all about the D and the ground game. Preparation and game plan are also enormously important. You know OH under Tressel, the team will be ready to go. AR under Petrino, just do not see them in this game in the end.
The Play:
OH -3
Reply With Quote
Originally Posted by 4seasons
