[SargeantHooker]

I've spent quite a bit of time looking at this game and I just can't see UCF scoring enough points to keep up. I live in Jacksonville (2 hrs from Orlando/5 hrs from Athens) so we get to see and hear quite a bit about both programs. While I think O'leary has done a nice job with the UCF program, the bulldogs have played far superior competition. Take a look at what the dawgs offense has done since A.J. Green has returned to the lineup. I've got UGA locked in at -6 1/2 -110 for 4 units, someone please give me a few reasons not to double down. All opinions are welcome, best of luck on your wagers today fellas.

[GoggsViggs]

I agree. Like ga here.

[ringemup]

my initial read on this game favored georgia although im beginning to question it because of public money all over the bulldogs at 87%, looks like vegas has swayed public opinion to georgia's side. now is it wise to follow the public here? gonna have to look at this further before pulling the trigger georgias got sum matchup advantages i like O-line and receivers but r u going to see effort from this team, theyve had sum issues over the yrs with that.

[jwbama23]

The books opened at 7.5, above the key number. That means they liked UGA at the open. I think UGA wins this going away. As "good" as UCF has looked this year, remember one thing. They didnt play in the SEC against SEC speed and SEC strength. This is a huge mismatch athletically.

Only thing that would concern me is whether or not UGA is motivated for this game.

I will probably take UGA in this game but will wait closer to kick off and see what the line movement does.

[PDW]

I can't, I love Georgia here.

[SargeantHooker]

The Mississippi State band is practicing for the game tomorrow right behind my house. Man this is getting me fired up for a huge football weekend. It makes me wish there was a 10 am kickoff.

[ebbearsfb1]

The fact it crossed a key number plus line movement makes ucf a good play.. look at wash last night... books won't move past a key number unless they like the dog

[SargeantHooker]

The line is now back at +/-7 -110 at most books. Will be keeping up with the movement as we closer to kickoff.

[Outhouse Tim]

Here is a brief statement on the game (part of my bowl write-up). Keep in mind that this is not Georgia's best team, and the defense is not a shut down type. Good luck.


Other stats, trends and game keys: UCF RB Murray has emerged of late. That has helped UCF achieve a +6:20 time of possession edge, but that was achieved vs. lower level foes. A big issue for UCF is the 21 passing TD’s allowed. Look for Green to hit the end zone. Georgia allowed 22 run TD’s. Of course they played some great offenses but UCF hopes to run for TD’s here. UCF keys include stopping something on D (we don’t expect them to control WR Green but they need to take away something), establishing the run and making a big play somewhere, maybe with their solid return guy. Georgia keys are to toughen up vs. the run and play like this is a BCS type opponent.

PICK: UCF wants revenge for losing at this bowl site and feels like they have the type of team that can play with a 6-6 Georgia. This is a step down in class for the Bulldogs and they need to be focused. If they are, it should be noted that they are 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS in their last 12 bowl games. We’ve had them in huge plays the last 3 years, giving points similar to this time. It sure looks like WR Green will have quite a day, perhaps 8-140-2, but we don’t really know if Georgia’s defense is going to make this a one-sided game this time around. It’s a pass right now, with Georgia our pick by 7-10 points. 30-21.

[clarkd32]

motivation would have to be a big reason... look at what Washington did to Nebraska last night.

good luck on the play... might tease it down to -1 with something else.

[SargeantHooker]

I think QB is the real edge right now. The freshman from UCF hasn't played on a stage like this against these kind of athletes. Aaron Murray has really grown up this year facing big time opponents without his biggest weapon for much of the year.

[homerbush]

Both teams have good offenses. UCF has a good defense and I know because of the conferences those are not comparable but I still think it it enough for UCF to win

[ebbearsfb1]

Stage like this? Its the liberty bowl not the national championship

[mmike032]

The books opened at 7.5, above the key number. That means they liked UGA at the open. I think UGA wins this going away. As "good" as UCF has looked this year, remember one thing. They didnt play in the SEC against SEC speed and SEC strength. This is a huge mismatch athletically.

Only thing that would concern me is whether or not UGA is motivated for this game.

I will probably take UGA in this game but will wait closer to kick off and see what the line movement does.

I was hesitant but went ahead and put a unit on -6.5 before the movement.
lack of UGA motivation and UCF with nothing to lose kept me off till this morning.
but look back at Richts bowl games. as much as I can find to dislike about Richts coaching style , he does well preparing for bowls and covers the number in recent bowl games.

[thebestthereis]

Stage like this? Its the liberty bowl not the national championship

this is the national championship for ucf, not sure georgia cares about this game very much. good luck!

[SargeantHooker]

Stage like this? Its the liberty bowl not the national championship

It's a true freshman playing in a bowl game on national television on a day when most of the country is off work & a lot of people will be watching. Is this not a much bigger stage than he has ever been on?

[ebbearsfb1]

I highly doubt unless ur gambling or went to these schools u have a large interest in this game.... and. If it such a big game hell rise to the occassion after your half way thru the season if not sooner if uve been starting the whole year most coaches won't treat u like a freshman... and plus what does georgia have to play for then?

[mmike032]

I highly doubt unless ur gambling or went to these schools u have a large interest in this game.... and. If it such a big game hell rise to the occassion after your half way thru the season if not sooner if uve been starting the whole year most coaches won't treat u like a freshman... and plus what does georgia have to play for then?

a winning record is all
AJs last game in a UGA jersey

[ebbearsfb1]

Yawnnnn... all aj wants to do is stay healthy.... winning record yawnnnn...

[Reed Harris]

The fact it crossed a key number plus line movement makes ucf a good play.. look at wash last night... books won't move past a key number unless they like the dog

UCF the better team Georgia not the same team they were the last few years.

[Brainstorm]

everyone sees what they want to see Georgia -7 and the over

[homerbush]

everyone sees what they want to see Georgia -7 and the over

Well you are already a loser because now you can get -6. UCF easily wins this.

[Adr3nalin3 Ru5h]

ucf loses by 7+.... sorry man ucf cant keep up with that sec speed

[OnlyMayo]

Ill Take UCF....just feel like fading the public is the right thing to do in this situation..GL

[ebbearsfb1]

That makes 0 sense... u know a majority of central florida team is from central florida right? Those boys aren't exactly slow

[sh35109]

Line is moving, people pounding UCF. I see -6.5 for UGA out there now. Does this change anyone's outlook?

[Serbone]

I've spent quite a bit of time looking at this game and I just can't see UCF scoring enough points to keep up. I live in Jacksonville (2 hrs from Orlando/5 hrs from Athens) so we get to see and hear quite a bit about both programs. While I think O'leary has done a nice job with the UCF program, the bulldogs have played far superior competition. Take a look at what the dawgs offense has done since A.J. Green has returned to the lineup. I've got UGA locked in at -6 1/2 -110 for 4 units, someone please give me a few reasons not to double down. All opinions are welcome, best of luck on your wagers today fellas.

Conference USA Champ has covered the SEC opponent in the last 5 or so Liberty Bowls.
I took Georgia because of superior conference and athletes, better SOS (35 to 107), they have played a lot better when AJ Green got back, and their young QB is developing, better every game. The clincher is (I HOPE) the kids want to make sure and go 7-6 rather than 6-7, two reasons, 1) they do not want to be the first losing season for GA in a long time, and 2) they want to save the coach's job. If GA had a better running game I would feel a whole lot better about this one.

[mmike032]

Richts job is safe. AD already said that after the Auburn game.
it comes down to the players not wanting to be part of UGAs first losing season in a long long time.
we'll see what UGA team shows up...

[SargeantHooker]

Serbone, thanks for your insight. We'll see if UGA shows up. I'm going to go ahead & ride out this Georgia bet. Dawns -7 -110. $220 to win $200