[Outhouse Tim]

Game 7 Hawaii Bowl Tulsa – Hawaii 12/24

Tulsa won 9 and earned this trip despite no winning its side of the Conference USA division. Hawaii won 10 (13 games) and looked good doing it except when playing Boise. Barring unusual island weather, look for a super high scoring game.

Tulsa Analysis: Tulsa had a 40-30 point ratio which was 34-38 vs. 7 bowl teams. The run O was nice at 5.2/219 and there was no go-to guy. The QB ran well and passed at 60%. 9 players caught 16 or more passes. The run D was better than usual at 4.0/137. The pass D% was 61.2 which won’t go well facing Hawaii. Tulsa did have 19 interceptions. The sack ratio was a modest 24-24. The PK was 14-22.

Hawaii Analysis: Hawaii had a strong 40-22.5 point ratio which was 30-33.5 vs. bowlers + USC. They ran 5.0/109 with few attempts because they pass 1st. Still, for the 1st time in quite a while a RB hit 1000+ yards. Green ran 1168-8.8-17 TD’s and caught 26 passes for a nice average. Their QB hit 66% with a 36-11 TD-interception ratio. Veteran WR Salas (106-15.8-12) led a strong group of WR’s. Like Tulsa, Hawaii had an unusually strong run D at 3.5/132! The pass D% was adequate at 59.3. Also like Tulsa, they can intercept (23 times). Their PK was 17-21 but lacks range. The sack ratio was 26-34.

Other stats, trends and game keys: These teams are very similar. Tulsa has a punter with great hang time, leading to a strong PR defense. Tulsa is the rush pick in a tier 3 category that has no value, and is the slight point stat pick. Overall it appears that Tulsa has the more focused run attack but Hawaii the feature RB. Tulsa has a dual threat QB but Hawaii’s QB is the better passer, has the better WR’s and faces a bit worse pass D. Tulsa has a slightly better sack shot. Tulsa also has a return game O and D edge. Tulsa keys are to win the special team battle and not be forced into passing more than usual. Hawaii keys are to utilize their WR talent edge, win the turnover battle, and avoid allowing a big special team play.

Pick: On neutral ground the line comes out to 4.5. This is at Hawaii, but bowl games usually do not get a full 3.5 home field advantage. Hawaii opened -12, and is a clear Power Play. We will go back the other way in due time (line now -10), with a slight Tulsa lean given the pre-New Years day performance of DD dogs. Call this one 41-34 Hawaii and a Lean OVER 72 as well.

[SBRtv Judie]

[Outhouse Tim]

Should be a wild game

[BiffTFinancial]

dig the over. i think that this will be the highest-scoring bowl. Rainbows, 44-40, i say. BOL to you.

[BigDofBA]

Wow. I really need to start proofreading my posts. I had a lot of typos in there.

Anyway, I still like Hawaii to win the game but I think Tulsa will keep it within 10 and have a decent shot at winning the game. Hawaii doesn't play great defense and Tulsa has a good offense.

Talent wise not a whole lot separates these teams. I don't think either side will get blown out unless there are a lot of turnovers.

[montoronto]

tulsa +10

[Outhouse Tim]

Big DofBA: Good luck in your wagers.

[Jasonal_98]

This could be one of the really fun games to watch. Looking for a shootout. Nice writeup.

[BigDofBA]

Big DofBA: Good luck in your wagers.

TY.

[Wilforth]

Tulsa 77
Hawaii 70

[newjerseydevils]

im thinking about taking hawaii -10 and over. good luck on the over

[Bigcheez]

Hoping for a good game tonight.

[tEABAG]

Hawaii -10

[ringemup]

there is a trend favoring tulsa here...favs of more than 7 in bowls playing a team coming off a win SU are 48-81 ATS. but hawaii has home field here n they have been lites out this yr at home tulsa has the firepower to keep up but they have to avoid turnovers hawaii leads the nation in takeaways with 36. i would lean hawaii here despite the trend because of home turf edge.

[pacocn]

over is at 73.5

[RunEmHard]

Weather in hawaii might play a factor in this game .
Been having alot of rain the past few days with the humidity in the upper 80's no wind at all , feels hot and muggy . I cant believe it's winter , feels like summer again .
Tulsa better hydrate themselfs properlly because they are going to need it .
This kind of weather is the perfect recepie for cramps, cramps and cramps.
The Warriors should roll and cover . Aloha !!!

[kernssca]

like the over

[kobebryant55]

i teaseed the over with hawaii -2

[pronk]

Who bets on Christmas eve Ho-Ho-Ho

Take a break fellas and simply enjoy this wonderful time.

[ringemup]

[COLOR=#000000 !important]if u play the percentages expect an underdog cover 2nite but hawaii has bigtime home field here given that tulsa has done nicely on the road as well of late, at this pt. its obvious the public is leaning hawaii considering the ATS winning streak for favorites + home field here. if tulsa had a better pass D id feel a bit more comfortable taking the pts they do have a decent sack numbers at 24 but its not a killer rush. u need to have a disruptive D line to to stop run n shoot offense(remember Georgia crushing hawaii in sugar bowl). tulsa is on a nice run 6-0 SU down the stretch n come in very confident but hawaii as well they are officially the WAC champions after beating nevada at home. but im gonna say tulsa breaks the favorite trend 2nite they also have a big edge in special teams with damaris johnson who is an electric home run threat on kick n punt returns he jus mite take one bak. the key im banking on is that tulsa takes care of the ball which they r good at kinne is much improved this yr, their D creates timely takeaways, offense keeps possession n works clock with a balanced ratio of run n pass which theyve done all yr, n they lite up in special teams their punter is one of the best in net yardage. i like tulsa to buck the trend 2nite n continue hawaiis troubling showings in the bowls of late. tulsa +10[/COLOR]

[Golden247]

I'm on Hawaii....

[gohabsgo]

Who bets on Christmas eve Ho-Ho-Ho

Take a break fellas and simply enjoy this wonderful time.

We're degenerates, no such thing has a break...

[rochestertitans]

best play is under

[Jakesteen]

I like the 77-70 prediction.

[zoso11871]

The under might be a good play.

[Fishhead]

Watch the SBR VIDEO in this thread and reap the rewards.

Its' a complete toss up game.

Getting +10 is highway robbery

[og4667]

in bowl games WAC teams as a fav are 9-10 SU and 6-13 ATS since 99'...prior to Boise covering against Utah WAC vs MWC/CUSA the dog is 17-2 ATS. Interesting stat but not sure if it holds up tonight.

Hawaii does have a sick homefield advantage and Tulsa's pass D is god awful and is going against a great passing offense. Tough call but I think the Over hits and a Hawaii cover wouldn't be too far out of the question.

[Outhouse Tim]

Side note: Opponents have often criticized the use of "partial" referees in regular season non-conference games. Ask Cincy and others how they have felt about the home field bias. Bowl games use complete crews from a conference not represented in the bowl game. I'm assuming this is true for a bowl game in Hawaii as well, since it would be a reward for the crew. Maybe this helps Tulsa, maybe not.

[Outhouse Tim]

That was ($$$) fun!

[BigDofBA]

That was ($$$) fun!

Agreed. I'm glad I sprinkled a little on the money line as well.

I thought Tulsa had a strong chance to win the game but i thought it would come down to the last possession.

[oakas]

That was ($$$) fun!

That WAS fun.

Almost took the ml, but could not pull the trigger.

[Wrecktangle]

Nice write up by the OP and a good video to boot.