Going to have one thread for the entire bowl season where we can talk about these games. Right now I am looking over the entire card and will have plays for Saturday's games up tomorrow. I have a friend who is having a bowl pickem against the spread and on the over/unders and the spread sheet goes out on Saturday morning so that will be interesting to see who is getting looked at heavy by the public because most of these guys aren't the ones who bet regularly.
Okay looked over all the games once and have lots of leans. Going to try and at least have a small write-up for each game and bet I make during the bowl season.
UTEP comes into the game on a two game losing streak against two good teams in Arkansas and Tulsa. BYU lost their last game by a point to Utah. Both teams come into the game 6-6 on the year and one of UTEP's wins was against an FCS opponent. Neither team has been very impressive on the year with most of the wins coming against teams with a losing record.
I am going with BYU in this game due to recent performances in their games plus the fact I think their run offense matches up well against UTEP run defense.
Northern Illinois Huskies vs. Fresno State Bulldogs
Much better teams playing here than in the first game. Northern Illinois lost to Miami (OH) in the MAC Championship a few weeks ago but still have had a great year. Fresno State finished fourth this year in the WAC but come into the game after an upset win against Illinois.
This game is being played on the blue turf of Boise State where Fresno State was embarrassed 51-0 earlier this year. However, even with that stat I like Fresno State in this situation based on previously playing here and the fact Pat Hill is the coach and he is known for having his players ready. Throw in the fact the game is in WAC country the crowd will be more biased for the Bulldogs in this game. I see a low scoring game and am making two smaller plays for now and might add some on the money line later tonight or tomorrow.
Plays: Fresno State +1.5 (0.5x)
Northern Illinois vs. Fresno State under 58 (0.5x)
Not much of a writeup hear. Boo Jackson is out for Ohio. I liked Troy as soon as I saw the game announced. Looked at some stats yesterday and then again before I wrote this and still like the Trojans. Would be nice if we could get some information on what these teams are doing tonight from someone actually connected to the program because it is always hard to control the players and especially when they are in a city like New Orleans.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles
The Louisville Cardinals come into the game 6-6 with a losing record in Big East play which jumps out as being a weaker conference this year. Southern Mississippi comes into the game with an 8-4 record plus a winning record in CUSA this year. Louisville relies heavily on their rushing attack and the Golden Eagles match up well in this situation as they have the 21st ranked rush defense. Southern Mississippi has been putting up big numbers the last few games and have only scored under 40 points one time in their last 8 games.
Southern Mississippi has been the more consistent team over the last few weeks of the season and I see them getting a win tonight over Louisville.
Boise State was poised for a BCS bowl game until they collapsed against Nevada earlier this year. Utah had looked good all year until they played TCU where they were embarrassed and almost got shut out in the blowout. They followed that game with a poor performance against Notre Dame in another game where they were lucky to get on the scoreboard. They finished the season strong with two wins against teams with winning records. The Broncos have played great all year except for the one misstep against Nevada. They come into this game after taking out their frustration against Utah State. Utah is coming into this game probably without their starting quarterback who is suffering from a shoulder injury. This could be a huge impact in this game if they are unable to pass as well as usual with the backup.
I believe Boise State will come into this game still pissed about the loss against Nevada which is keeping them out of the BCS game. Kellen Moore and company should have a big game out here and set themselves up to be ranked high going into next year.
Pretty pathetic second half last night by Southern Mississippi. They had plenty of opportunities to score more in the second half but just could not get it done.
Bowl Record Update: 5-4 +1.425 units
Poinsettia Bowl
Navy Midshipmen vs. San Diego State Aztecs
Navy is playing in their 7th or 8th straight bowl game on Thursday night. They are getting used to playing in bowl games and know what to expect during this time of year. Navy also comes into this game on a four game win streak and winning 7 of their last 8. The Aztecs have lost 2 of the last 3, however, those two loses were against the top two teams in the MWC. Navy runs the option and is lead by Ricky Dobbs who has been a tremendous player in the offense. The Aztecs are the opposite of a team and they love to pass the ball and their quarterback has thrown for over 3000 yards this year.
Looking soley on stats most people would look at San Diego State and see they have the better offense and defense than Navy. However, I think this is where the more experienced team comes out and keeps the game close and could possibly even win.
Leans:
Navy +3 - waiting to place this as it could easily rise by tomorrow and especially if Boise State covers tonight as that will be the fifth straight favorite to cover to start bowl season.
Navy money line +140
In a big hurry today and no time for a detailed writeup. Hawaii is the best passing team in the country and playing a team with a porous defense. Tulsa has a strong offense but their defense scares me in this game. Would like to take the over but 70+ points is just unreal as you need 2.5+ TDs each quarter. I realize this is easy for these two teams to score and this total could easily reach 100. I have a play on Hawaii for the game and if the total is 31 or less at halftime I will probably be on the over in the second half. Will be with family tonight so can't get on later if I do bet it but again if it's 31 or under I will more than likely be on the over in the second half if it's reasonable.
Working on getting quite a few of these games plays in today while I have time.
Independence Bowl
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets vs. Air Force Falcons
This game pairs up two teams who run the triple option. Usually these teams get beat in the bowl games as their opposition has all month to prepare for the offense. In this case both teams have seen this offense all year in practice and should have plenty of ideas on how to stop the other team. This is the number 1 and 2 rushing teams in the country. This should be a ground game the entire way and I see a lot of clock being eaten away by running the ball and keeping it from the other team. Georgia Tech has a slightly better run defense than Air Force does but I do not seeing it as being a big enough difference to make a wager on either side.
North Carolina State Wolfpack vs. West Virginia Mountaineers
I don't have as much time as I thought I did today and trying to get both of the Tuesday games bets in today. West Virginia is coming into this game on a 4 game winning streak. They have a great defense against both the pass and rushing attack. I believe they will be too strong on defense for Russell Wilson, who is a great athlete by the way, and the Wolfpack offense to put up enough points for the win.
Missouri finished the season strong closing it out with 3 straight wins while Iowa did the exact opposite with 3 straight losses. Iowa is missing their starting running back due to a suspension and I don't know how they will respond to his absence or how motivated they will be to play in this bowl game.
Got greedy yesterday and bet the over 2nd half for 0.5 units at 24.5 -105
Updated Record: 8-8 +1.23 units
I am going to try and go ahead and break down all of tomorrow's and Thursday's games and get those bets in tonight. Looking to boost the bankroll before the New Year's Eve and New Year's Day bowls.
Don't have the time I thought I was going to have tonight so no writeups for these games tomorrow and didn't even get to look at the ones on Thursday. Posting my leans tonight and going to sleep on them before I place them in the morning.
Leans:
East Carolina vs. East Carolina over 67.5 (2x)
Illinois +1 (1x)
Arizona vs. Oklahoma State over 66 (1x)
Oklahoma State -4.5 (0.5x)
Okay decided I am leaving off Oklahoma State on the late game. Depending on when I get back tonight I might add it back but at this time I doubt it. Also, going to play all the games to go over today.
Plays: East Carolina vs. East Carolina over 67.5 (2x)
Illinois vs. Baylor over 62.5 (1x)
Illinois EV (1x)
Arizona vs. Oklahoma State over 66 (1x)
Finally have some time to do some short writeups for the games tomorrow.
Armed Forces Bowl
Army Black Knights vs. Southern Methodist Mustangs
Another bowl game between two teams who aren't exactly worthy of playing in a bowl game. Army comes in 6-6 and have lost their last 2 games played. Looking deeper at the schedule and they really haven't beaten anyone this year. SMU comes in 7-6 and other than Tulsa you could say the same thing about their wins this year. I think this game depends more on who is motivated and even though that is usually the military schools in bowl games I like June Jones coaching philosophy and believe he will have the ponies ready to run in this game.
First off, seriously the Pinstripe Bowl you have to be kidding me these bowl sponsors just get worse and worse. Big 12 vs. Big East in this matchup. This is in Syracuse's backyard with the game being played in Yankee Stadium which will actually be cool to see tomorrow. Can someone please tell me a team that Kansas State has actually beaten that is worth mentioning this year other than UCF. Yes, I know the teams Syracuse beat aren't that much better since they are coming out of the Big East but at least they still have a winning record on the year. Give me Syracuse pretty much playing a home game.
Finally a bowl game that has been around longer than the past 5 years plus some real football teams. North Carolina was hit with suspensions early in the year which started them off on a bad note. They made a decent season out of all the drama revolving around the team and were able to finish the year 7-5. Tennessee couldn't have started off the season much worse than they did but were able to rally at the end and win their last 4 games to become bowl eligible. This game is going to be played in Nashville, TN which is right down the road from Knoxville and everyone knows how well the Volunteers travel for football games. Derek Dooley is trying to bring this program back and with a win tomorrow it will be a huge building block for making his own name at another SEC school.
Well I am getting tired and want to get some rest in before New Years Eve so going to bed with these three plays already locked in. Tomorrow I am doing some traveling but should be back in time to look over the late game tomorrow night.
Plays for the rest of the day: Notre Dame +3 (-120) (0.5x)
Notre Dame (+120) (0.5x)
Georgia -6 (-120) (1x)
Florida State +3 (-130) (0.5x)
Florida State +120 (0.5x)
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