Quote Originally Posted by BetToWin33 View Post
anyone have any of his newsletters for this week... will give pts
Two down, how many more to go?
First it was the Ohio State Buckeyes getting throttled by the Wisconsin Badgers in their debut week atop the national rankings. Then it was the Oklahoma Sooners losing to the Missouri Tigers. So we'll see what happens with the Auburn Tigers and Mississippi Rebels this weekend. But the Tigers aren't the consistently dominant, nationally ranked team everyone is expecting to be upset. That distinction belongs to the Oregon Ducks.
Strange, right? The Ducks just whipped UCLA on national TV a week ago. Offensively, they looked as good as any unit has looked since the Four Horsemen. Meanwhile, USC hasn't played in a couple weeks and, in case you don't remember, has a defense that tends to forget its primary job is to keep teams from advancing down the field. And yet, there has been lots of talk all week about how this is a prime spot for the Ducks to be upset.
Which is exactly why I asked the Hilton's Ed Salmons to include Oregon-USC in his college football line moves breakdown for this week.
So let's run through some games:
Matchup: Oklahoma State at Kansas State
Line moves: The Cowboys opened at minus-6, currently favored by 3.
Salmons says that means: "This is interesting. We opened at six and there was an initial move pushing it down to 4.5 and five on Monday. Then it was bought back up to minus-6. After OSU receiver Justin Blackmon was arrested for DUI coming back from the [Dallas] Cowboys game, it got played down. The Cowboys' offense is great and has a really good running game, but it also has a lot of inexperienced receivers."
Matchup: Louisville at Pittsburgh
Line moves: Louisville opened as 11-point dogs, currently 9.5-point dogs.
Salmons says that means: "If you look at Louisville's recent performances it has been playing really good football. It was a three-point dog to Cincy and was leading most of the way before fading. So sharps must think the Cards are a live dog. But I don't get it, because Pittsburgh is finally hitting its stride and looking like the team we thought they would be early in the season. They beat up on Rutgers and before that beat Syracuse, which turned around and beat West Virginia. If Cincy laid three on the road against Louisville, then Pittsburgh should be a lot more than minus-9 at home."
Matchup: Texas Tech at Texas A&M
Line moves: The Aggies opened as 5.5-point favorites, currently seven-point favorites.
Salmons says that means: "Two of the most respected betting groups in the business have played the A&M side, which is one reason the number jumped. Last week the Aggies finally decided to split the QB duties between Jerrod Johnson, who hasn't been that good, and Ryan Tannehill, who lit up Kansas for 3 TD passes. Granted, you could throw three against Kansas, but sharps might be thinking he is going to play more. Meanwhile, Tech has had a really disappointing year. It's just a mismatch right now between Tommy Tuberville and his talent."
Matchup: Florida International at Florida Atlantic
Line moves: FIU opened as a 6.5-point fave, currently a three-point fave.
Salmons says that means: "CRIS, offshore, opened this at 6.5, which seemed way high. It was almost as if they made the line for where this game is normally played, which is a neutral site at the Dolphins' home field. But the game is being played at FAU, and the handicappers immediately jumped on the line, pushing it down to where it should have started, around 3.5 or three. The Wynn opened it at three on Sunday night and now there are a lot of guys who played the plus-6.5 for FAU at CRIS and the minus-three for FIU at the Wynn who are set up for a middle."
Matchup: Oregon at USC
Line moves: Oregon opened as 6.5-point favorites, it bumped up to seven, now back down to 6.5.
Salmons says that means: "If you just look at what's going on the past couple weeks it looks like the game for the top-ranked team to blow it. USC is in a great spot -- it has been off for a couple weeks after destroying Cal and Oregon is coming off a game in which it looked the greatest offense in history. The Ducks just come at you in waves, they play like the Colts only on steroids. You don't have time to sub or to stop it, which isn't good when USC has no depth. But I do think the Trojans will hang tough for a while and have a chance because they've been off. This is a public against sharp game, and I think public money will play this and get it back to seven."