USF vs Cincinnati
The breakdown of this game for USF is based on stats from all games excluding Stony Brook, and for Cincinnati since Isiah Pead has returned 3 weeks ago.

The Bulls are coming into Cincinnati armed with one of the worst passing offenses in the country and on paper a pretty solid defense. While Cincinnati has an explosive offense and a defense that is much better than most people realize.

When looking at USF, their victories have come at home against W. Kentucky and FL Atlantic against whom they have amassed 55 of their 87 points of the year. So, against opponents: Florida, Syracuse, and West Va they have averaged 9.7 ppg. In passing they have avereaged 112 ypg (115th overall) with 60% completion rate, and a dismal 26.6% in 3rd down conversions. They have been able to run the ball for an average of 153.2 ypg with 4.0 ypa. Defensively, they have allowed 176 pass yards/game and 134 rush yards/game and allowing only 17.2 ppg. They have also not have an offensive touchdown for two weeks.

After Pead returned to Cincinnati, the offense has exploded into one of the best rushing teams in the nation. Collaros is a solid starter that seldom makes mistakes and improving each week. With the return of Woods this Week and Binns on the other side of the field, it will make it difficult for USF to contain both players also considering the threat of Pead running the ball. In the last 3 games for Cincinnati (Oklahoma, Miami (OH), and Louisville) they have averaged 268 pass yards/game (64% completion), and 239 rush yards/game. The yhave averaged 33 ppg and a 44.4% conversion on 3rd downs. On the other side of the ball, the defense is solid against the run and the pass. They have given up an average of 117 ypg on the ground and 268 ypg in the air - Oklahoma put up 370 pass yards but also has the #12 passing offense. The most yards they gave up on the ground was last week against Louisville, where Powell put up 220+ yards.

The Bearcats have a huge advantage when playing at home since the return of Pead, almost beating Oklahoma and slaughtering Miami OH. So, this game comes down to the ability of the USF defense to stop the Bearcat running and passing offense, a team that has averaged 507 yards of offense over the last three games. The strength of the USF offense is the run and that is also the strength of the UC defense. The wildcard will be the ability of Daniels to pass the ball effectively without giving the ball away, which has not been the case this season. Their offense is going to struggle moving the ball effectively and if Collaros is careless with the ball as he was last week against UL, USF may have better field position to put up some points.. Their defense is going to be able to slow the UC offense at times but will get tired by the 3rd quarter chasing Woods, Binns, Pead, and Collaros all over the field.

USF 9 - UC 27