[rsnnh12]

I've never understood this, so if someone could explain, or back up with stats that I don't have, please share. I don't get why people would fade a favorite with the reasoning being "well, they have a tough game next week, so they'll be looking ahead to that game, and get beat this week". We are talking about elite Division 1 athletes here. Assuming they have decent coaching, they are going to be completely focused on a weekly basis.

I'm sure a lot of you have played high school sports, and had rivals. Did you ever play poorly in the game before the Rivalry game because you were too focused on the rivalry? The answer for the majority of you will be 'NO'. As an athlete, you go out there to dominate everyone, every game. When the whistle blows, you are completely focused on the game at hand. Again, this is assuming your coaching doesn't absolutely suck. Any average or better coach will game plan for the next game and not even mention the rivalry game. So why do bettors think that a top 25 team will overlook average teams because they have a big game the week after? Top 25 teams know that 1 loss could end their title chances, and they also know that they want as much momentum going into the big games as possible. Why would they possibly not be prepared?

I'm not saying favorites will always win, but to say they are 'looking ahead' is ridiculous IMHO. There is always a chance that the team comes out flat, or they just don't play a good game. I get that. But where does looking ahead come into play there? Maybe they just played a bad game

Again, if anyone has any stats or figures to prove me wrong, I will gladly eat crow here.

Thoughts?

[mcbaseball10]

I can not give you stats to back up the claims but can give you some personal experience. In high school football we had times where we would game plan two weeks before the big game because you are limited in the amount of practice time you had. You would put in plays specific for a certain team. You would not bother putting in new plays against a team you did not feel necessary. When coaching staffs are talking about the team two weeks in advance, you can be less prepared for the team directly ahead of you.

In college baseball, I had some letdown games personally against weaker opponents. Whenever the big conference games or playoff games came around I would be at my best, but would find myself lacking 100% focus against a weak team.

[Husker36]

I believe that teams look ahead sometimes or they dont take the current weeks opponent serious and they are more focused on "next week".
I dont believe that Michigan State will lose this week because they are looking ahead to Iowa. I think the "looking ahead" theory works much better when you have a huge favorite with a big game the following week. While that team may not lose... they might not win by the 30+ that Vegas is expecting.
Was Nebraska looking ahead to K State when they were playing Div 2 South Dakota State as 42 point favs?
Was Texas looking ahead to OU when they lost to UCLA? Maybe......

[rsnnh12]

I can not give you stats to back up the claims but can give you some personal experience. In high school football we had times where we would game plan two weeks before the big game because you are limited in the amount of practice time you had. You would put in plays specific for a certain team. You would not bother putting in new plays against a team you did not feel necessary. When coaching staffs are talking about the team two weeks in advance, you can be less prepared for the team directly ahead of you.

In college baseball, I had some letdown games personally against weaker opponents. Whenever the big conference games or playoff games came around I would be at my best, but would find myself lacking 100% focus against a weak team.

I think that's more on the coaches than the players though. At the D1 college level, coaches know what strategies they will use against rivals, but I wouldn't think they'd tell the players until the week before the game.

I played high school football as well, and we never heard the next game plan until after a game or that Monday at practice. It kept us focused on the game at hand, and we rarely even thought about the next opponent.

I agree that letdown games are more likely to occur (especially in football), where you almost play down to your opponents level, but I don't think that has anything to do with worrying about the next game.

IDK, its just the way I always looked at it. At the elite level, I just don't see any team underestimating an opponent strictly because they are worried about the next game. The coaches might not game plan properly for the worse team, but I don't think looking ahead is the reasoning for that.

Once the whistle blows, its game on, and nothing else matters

[Husker36]

Kansas Blows. I realize that. So I dont want to hear anyone coming back telling me how bad Kansas is.

HOWEVER... with that being said..... Kansas started off the season with a 3-6 loss to Div 2 North Dakota State.
I truely believe that Turner Gill (Kansas head coach) was looking ahead to Georgia Tech. Gill has a history with option offenses and I believe he had his team practicing all fall for Georgia Tech and not worrying about any division 2 opponents. Kansas beat Georgia Tech. Another example where the team might have been looking ahead to next week......

[Husker36]

And just to answer your thread title..... WHY DO PEOPLE BELIEVE IN THE "LOOK AHEAD"?

Because we have all been burned..... betting on a team that comes out and plays like crap only to hear someone say "they were looking ahead to so and so". And then watching the team that we thought could kill the "crappy team" come out and beat the "good team".

[rsnnh12]

Kansas Blows. I realize that. So I dont want to hear anyone coming back telling me how bad Kansas is.

HOWEVER... with that being said..... Kansas started off the season with a 3-6 loss to Div 2 North Dakota State.
I truely believe that Turner Gill (Kansas head coach) was looking ahead to Georgia Tech. Gill has a history with option offenses and I believe he had his team practicing all fall for Georgia Tech and not worrying about any division 2 opponents. Kansas beat Georgia Tech. Another example where the team might have been looking ahead to next week......

Agreed, but I would put that on the coaching being shitty, rather than the players looking ahead. That's why I added that caveat

I agree though. It definitely does happen. I guess I was talking more about situations with good coaching, and more specifically was talking about MSU and Oregon this week. The reason why so many people were on UCLA and are on Northwestern is because of the 'look ahead' factor, but both Oregon and MSU have good coaching that prob won't let them lose focus this week.

I should've made that more clear in the OP. I know it does happen, but this is targeted more towards good teams/good coaching rather than average teams/average coaching

[rsnnh12]

And just to answer your thread title..... WHY DO PEOPLE BELIEVE IN THE "LOOK AHEAD"?

Because we have all been burned..... betting on a team that comes out and plays like crap only to hear someone say "they were looking ahead to so and so". And then watching the team that we thought could kill the "crappy team" come out and beat the "good team".

Fair enough. I have yet to be burned (KNOCK ON WOOD), but I could see that changing the way you look at things.

Thanks for the replies

[ukbsktbll]

I know this happens in baseball and soccer. Can't see it really being a factor in college football bc a loss can be a big factor. But in soccer they may have a out of league tourney the next week that is much more important and if they are on the top of their league and they don't need a win they may look ahead to a more important match by sitting some players. Baseball can because they play so many games and be more important to look ahead to a division game.

[Husker36]

I agree.... I also like Michigan State this week. But I dont think Michigan State will be looking ahead to Iowa. I dont think Michigan State expected to be undefeated at this point and they are taking one game at a time.

Oregon was coming off a bye week and they were pissed to see the computers have them ranked so low. Easy cover last night!

I'd say when capping a game... always look at who they play the following week and decide if it's really a factor. Look for a HUGE rival the following week (like Texas playing UCLA the week before OU).

GO MICHIGAN STATE!!