1. 10-15-10 09:20 AM #1
    Las Vegas Tom
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    Louisville +3

    I found these FREE PICKS at the Dual Threat Sports website. A little late for last nights pick but he has Louisville toinght. Their was nothing up for Saturday yet.

    Friday, October 14, 2010

    Louisville +3 1 unit


    You rarely find home underdogs that rush and pass for over 200 yards per game but we have one here w/ the Cardinals. Louisville is averaging 230.3 yards a game on the ground and 249.5 in the air. Dating back to last year’s bowl embarrassment to Florida, the Bearcats have lost four straight games outside Nippert Stadium. They are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 and are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Louisville is also playing much better defensibely under new coach Charlie Strong allowing 354.25 ypg vs teams that avg 366.54 (-12.28 ypg) and allowing 20.5 ppg vs teams that avg 25.92 ppg (-5.92 ppg), both improvements over last years poor numbers (395 ypg & 27.09 ppg). What also impresses me about Louisville is that they went on the road vs. Oregon State as a three touchdown underdog but lost by just 7 points. They outgained the Beavers in that game by 134 yards, done in by a -2 turnover margin. They have great balance with Adam Froman throwing for 1,177 yards at 8.5 yards per pass, and running behind Bilal Powell who already has run for 689 yards at 7.6 yards a carry and 7 TDs. Successfully running the football has made a huge difference for Louisville this year. They are avg 230.3 ypg vs 120.5 last year and are 23-10 ATS after running for over 200 yards in their last game. Louisville is 5-1 ATS as a home dog off back-to-back SU wins. Meanwhile the visitor is 0-4 ATS in Cincinnati games this year. This one figures to be a tight one, so I’ll take the Ville at home plus the 3.


    Thursday, October 14, 2010

    USF - West Virginia UNDER 45.5 (45) 1 unit WINNER

    I have USF - WVU at UNDER 42 w/ a range of 26 to 35. USF offense is really struggling. They've been held below their opponents defensive season avg 3 of 4 games (including Westerm Kentucky) and West Virginia is only allowing 17 ppg (13.6 ppg if you included Coastal Carolina, which I don't). But defensively USF is playing well having held 3 of 4 teams below their offensive season avg by 5.32 ppg (only Florida was able to surpass their season avg thanks to a +5 turnover margin in that game. The game was tied 7-7 at halftime). West Virginia has also held 3 of 4 teams below their offensive season avg by an avg of 5.28 ppg. From a statistical perspective this game should end up around West Vriginia 19-24 points and USF 10.5 to 14.
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  2. 10-15-10 09:23 AM #2
    jwbama23
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    Im liking Louisville tonite as well. They have been playing better and better each week.
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  3. 10-15-10 11:31 AM #3
    Wilforth
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  4. 10-15-10 11:54 AM #4
    INDIANOPERATOR
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    Good luck on Louisville +3 tonight myself too
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  5. 10-15-10 12:12 PM #5
    jadenandashton
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    Las Vegas Tom.... What impresses you so much about the Oregon State game??? Oregon State, to say the least has a horrible defense..they rank 113th out of 120 teams in total defense. I know there are things called moral victories but that definetly was not one. If you want to look at statistics you need to look at what cincy has done against quality oppenents. What win are you hanging your hat on that Louisville has had. It is very easy to get big numbers against horrible teams. If you want to look at a better loss for louisville you should look at the Kentucky loss where they only loss by 7. Atleast KY ranks in the top fifty in total offense and total defense.
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  6. 10-15-10 12:14 PM #6
    Wilforth
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    Louisville wins!
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  7. 10-15-10 12:18 PM #7
    smarmy
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    I like Louisville and the over tonight. gl all.
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  8. 10-15-10 12:41 PM #8
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarmy View Post
    I like Louisville and the over tonight. gl all.
    My fears with the Over are:
    1) Louisville defense is underrated
    2) Cinci's road offense is suspect.

    I'll just stick with Louisville ML and enjoy the money after the game.
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  9. 10-15-10 01:25 PM #9
    TwampSix
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    Quote Originally Posted by smarmy View Post
    I like Louisville and the over tonight. gl all.
    Me too!! Good luck to us!
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  10. 10-15-10 01:38 PM #10
    og4667
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    good info, one thing that I really don't like about Louisville is 2-12 SU & 3-13 ATS in conference play over the last 3 years while
    Cincy is 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS over the lats 3 years.
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  11. 10-15-10 01:46 PM #11
    manicart
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    Louisville Ranked 19th Rushing
    +3.5
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  12. 10-15-10 02:03 PM #12
    manicart
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    btw heres tnites injury report

    CINCINNATI

    Out
    Alex Delisi, LB Knee
    Alex Hoffman, OL Knee
    Ryan Paxson, LB Knee
    Darrin Williams, RB Ankle

    Questionable
    Aaron Roberson, DB Leg
    Adrian Witty, DB Leg

    Probable
    Wes Richardson, DB Ankle

    LOUISVILLE

    Out
    Victor Anderson, RB Upper Extremity
    Tyon Dixon, LB Head
    Kamal Hogan, RB Head
    Kamran Joyer, OG Lower Extremity

    Questionable
    Doug Beaumont, WR Lower Extremity
    Damian Copeland, WR Lower Extremity
    Maurice Evans Lower Extremity
    Zed Evans, CB Lower Extremity

    Probable
    Mario Benevides, C Lower Extremity
    Josh Byron, OL Lower Extremity
    Blayne Donnell, RB Lower Extremity
    Brandon Heath, LB Upper Extremity
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  13. 10-15-10 02:39 PM #13
    oklahomaoutlaw
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    Quote Originally Posted by manicart View Post
    Louisville Ranked 19th Rushing +3.5
    Good play I like it +3x BOL.
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  14. 10-15-10 03:03 PM #14
    gators0708
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    i like cincy -3 there a very talented team and will get it done tonight.. BOL everyone
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  15. 10-15-10 03:13 PM #15
    Night-Tripper
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    Quote Originally Posted by gators0708 View Post
    i like cincy -3 there a very talented team and will get it done tonight.. BOL everyone
    I'm a contrarian myself... I may get it shoved up my azz, but I just tossed another three bucks on Cincinnati -3/even.
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  16. 10-15-10 03:55 PM #16
    iQon
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    +3?

    Is this game actually in Louisville, or neutral field? UC has turned things around in their last 2 games, but -3 on the road for them is ridiculous.
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  17. 10-15-10 04:30 PM #17
    Lazyboy311
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    I think people are reading a bit too much into this being a "road" game for Cincy....The two schools are literally 100 miles apart, so beyond the fact that it isn't their field and the fans will be 70/30 against, I really don't see much else to read into. Big difference between a 2 hr bus ride (with no hotel stay) and a 2 hr plane flight and 2 nights in a hotel.
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  18. 10-15-10 04:55 PM #18
    Las Vegas Tom
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    Quote Originally Posted by jadenandashton View Post
    Las Vegas Tom.... What impresses you so much about the Oregon State game??? Oregon State, to say the least has a horrible defense..they rank 113th out of 120 teams in total defense. I know there are things called moral victories but that definetly was not one. If you want to look at statistics you need to look at what cincy has done against quality oppenents. What win are you hanging your hat on that Louisville has had. It is very easy to get big numbers against horrible teams. If you want to look at a better loss for louisville you should look at the Kentucky loss where they only loss by 7. Atleast KY ranks in the top fifty in total offense and total defense.
    jadenandashton, this is not my write-up. It is from a handicapping site called Dual Threat Sports. However, using your own philosophy, Oregon State's defense is far from horrible considering the quality teams they have played. Neither Cincinnati or Louisville has a victory that they can hang their hat on.
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  19. 10-15-10 04:55 PM #19
    Nellyinctown
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    Cinci's rush defense is stellar (only 2.6 YPC allowed). Louisville has been playing well but against weak teams. Ill give Louisville some credit as they should be able to hang around, but the better team will pull away late. It might be worth buying a point in this one. As for over under, I think the under is a good play both defenses are fairly decent.
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  20. 10-15-10 05:17 PM #20
    zebraman
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    I took louisville ML.
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  21. 10-15-10 05:18 PM #21
    oklahomaoutlaw
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nellyinctown View Post
    Cinci's rush defense is stellar (only 2.6 YPC allowed). Louisville has been playing well but against weak teams. Ill give Louisville some credit as they should be able to hang around, but the better team will pull away late. It might be worth buying a point in this one. As for over under, I think the under is a good play both defenses are fairly decent.
    At home the cards average 219 yards a game on the ground and 218 yards overall on the ground and that was against good teams like Oregon State and Kentucky. Cincy only gives up 85 yards a game on the ground but away from home they give up over 121 yards a game and lost all three of those games. And I don't think the crowd will be 70/30 that is just crazy, this is the only time LU will be on prime time TV all year 4 sure, this is all they have untill basketball starts. But you never know BOL.
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  22. 10-15-10 05:22 PM #22
    DennisT
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    Not a road game! Wow. Louisville wins and it goes over the total! Not a road game Wow!
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  23. 10-15-10 05:26 PM #23
    Unchained
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    I hope this turns out better than last nights home dog.

    GL
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  24. 10-15-10 05:30 PM #24
    DennisT
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    Took both Favs last night. Love this home dog!
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  25. 10-15-10 05:44 PM #25
    diehardfan
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    I like Cinn to win this one. I've got Cinn -2.5.
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  26. 10-15-10 05:50 PM #26
    cjewell83
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    took cincy -3.bol to everyone
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  27. 10-15-10 05:53 PM #27
    Mac4Lyfe
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    Dam, I originally wanted to hammer Cinci in this one, Now I'm leaning Ville. I might have to sit this one out. BOL
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  28. 10-15-10 06:00 PM #28
    Tatsu
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    I like Louisville tonight also, lets cash in
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  29. 10-15-10 06:04 PM #29
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe View Post
    Dam, I originally wanted to hammer Cinci in this one, Now I'm leaning Ville. I might have to sit this one out. BOL
    You've joined the truth. Don't sit out. Play the right side and get some money for the weekend.
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  30. 10-15-10 06:12 PM #30
    Mac4Lyfe
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wilforth View Post
    You've joined the truth. Don't sit out. Play the right side and get some money for the weekend.
    Charlie Strong is the man but I'm going to go with my first mind in this one. Cinci 1st quarter, 1st half and game. All fairly small plays just for action. All the best Wilforth
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  31. 10-15-10 06:28 PM #31
    DennisT
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    ?????????? huh ????????? Explain.
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  32. 10-15-10 06:31 PM #32
    Wilforth
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mac4Lyfe View Post
    Charlie Strong is the man but I'm going to go with my first mind in this one. Cinci 1st quarter, 1st half and game. All fairly small plays just for action. All the best Wilforth
    M4L,

    BOL too. The final outcome will favor either of us.
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