[jeffdane]

If u have 5 dimes then u know that they offer different lines on some games. What I mean is instead of buying points, you give up points and they pay you at a better line.

I am wondering if anyone has looked into the lines to determine if they are a tell on the game. I would assume not because it seems to obvious but maybe nobody else sees it so then it wouldnt be obvious.

For example.

UCF at Marshall +6.5 2:11 est wednesday.

UCF -6.5 -110
UCF -7 +105 (15 cents)
UCF -7.5 +120 (30 cents extra for giving up 1 point)
UCF -8 +128
UCF -8.5 +138
UCF -9 +150 (60 cents extra for giving up 2.5 points)

Marshall +6.5 -110
Marshall +6 -105 (only 5 cents)
Marshall +5.5 +102 (just 12 cents extra for giving up 1 point)
Marshall +5 +108
Marshall +4.5 +115
Marshall +4 +122 (32 cents for giving up 2.5 points)

It is the exact opposite if you were to buy points as well. Buy 2.5 points for UCF and it cost 32 cents. BUy 2.5 points for Marshall and pay 60 cents. So if you want to buy points it cost more if u are on marshall side. If u want to give up points it pays less if u are on Marshall.

I mean, its obvious that if were going to give up 2.5 points i would rather get an extra 60 cents instead of 32 cents. damn near double the commission. We all know vegas and the sportsbooks dont give out free money so in this situation we should take marshall . Yes? I dont know Im going to track this to find out.

looks like the line is inviting UCF money. they already have 71% on UCF.

Test Play #1) Marshall +6.5 -110

[dante1]

key numbers

[jeffdane]

yeah, i know, but i'm just testing to see what happens when the line is not so close to the key numbers. BUt still, any play u make on UCF is cheaper than Marshall, other than the 6.5. We shall see. Problem nothing but worth a look.

Also, are u guessing, or from experience is this fact? Thanks man.

[dante1]

yeah, i know, but i'm just testing to see what happens when the line is not so close to the key numbers. BUt still, any play u make on UCF is cheaper than Marshall, other than the 6.5. We shall see. Problem nothing but worth a look.

Also, are u guessing, or from experience is this fact? Thanks man.

Yes, worth a look.

But, are you assuming that the book, or anybody for that matter has a lock on which team wins the game. Or even just a good idea what team will win. I don't think they operate like that, I believe they just work with action received and key numbers. Good books don't want to gamble.

[jeffdane]

i dont think they know what will happen but i think they have, at least a better idea than us. i believe on most games they have a side that they want us on. i might be wrong but thats my theory and im sticking to it.

[dante1]

i dont think they know what will happen but i think they have, at least a better idea than us. i believe on most games they have a side that they want us on. i might be wrong but thats my theory and im sticking to it.

No, you're right they do have a side that they want us on, and that side is always the side they have the least action on. Books manipulate lines to get as close to even action as possible. At least the good books do that.

When I booked in the 70's and 80's I was always pissed when I got plays on the side I liked. But, I soon learned that it is better to have as close to even action then worry about whether the player had the same side that I liked. I also learned that in more cases than not the side that had the most action was the losing side. I saw it time after time. Not to say that the public always loses, they don't. But, in my experience it is usually better to have the opposite side. The book should be an uninterested, impartial bystander and simply react to the action not their expectations.

[sooner13]

Well said Dante and you are right. Which means jeff, you should be on the UCF side. Consider this, if Vegas wants even betting on both sides and the public is pounding UCF at 71%, wouldn't you think they would want you on Marshall and give it to you cheaper and at a better rate so that you lean to that side? You're getting more value for your money on UCF which is the way you should lean. I got it at -5 so I'm happy with that number. Goodluck either way!

[jeffdane]

Well sooner we can agree to disagree. If we have to pay more to get less points I think they are trying to get less action on that side.

[oChRoNiCo]

I will be keeping an eye on this very interesting to me as I have just started using this sportsbook really love the teaser options that this book offers!

[falconticket]

Your crossing key number on the ucf buy. That's all there is to it. Very simply put.

[Flight]

A game at -110/-110 sides has -4.5% expected value.

Each half-point you sell from the market line gives even more negative EV (between 0.5 and 1.5% per half point)

The same goes for buying points, although sometimes in football you can buy points for less than what they are worth, giving you an edge, or at least lowering the bookie edge.

Don't forget that the total adjusts the value of each half point. Lower total games "squash" the points together, making buying points more valuable in general.

This has been studied in depth and the theory is very sound.

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting+tool...alculator.aspx

You should also consult an NFL and CFB push chart. It will tell you exactly how much each point is worth. Too many gamblers bet without ever having seen one and understanding it's significance.