[Facepunch]

I was pretty hot and heavy over UAB given their ability to keep it close against teams like TENN and TROY, but you have to ask yourself, what kept them in those games?

It was their ability to score against mediocre defenses. IF CENFL has anything going for them it is their ability to limit scores against teams like NCST, and KANST.

I am using the NC ST game as a barometer, because teams like Cincinati and VaTech, were not able to hold them as low, both allowing 30 points, while CENFL only allowed 28.

They held undefeated Kansas ST. to 17 points in their last game, they have had a long week (like UAB) to gameplan and heal.

I think UAB has a real hard time on offense.

All I am saying is maybe UAB is being set up here feels like a trap.

[Facepunch]

I am kind of leaning to CENFL - 11.5 and Under 49. (a tight squeeze, I may just lay off the total)

[Sean81]

They missed 5 field goals against Tennessee. It should not have been close.

[Facepunch]

Yeah, that was another thing, they are not replacing the kid that missed those field goals, CENFL is very stingy with points giving up an average of 15.5 this season compared to UAB giving up 31.2. That alone has to make you wonder if this is going to be a game that is decided by defense.

[kalamity85]

UCF seems like they have a stout passing D but if you look at the QB's they faced, they aren't very good. I think NC st's QB was the best they faced and he's 55% on the year (though he does have a good TD/INT ratio). UCF is a very run heavy team and without balance, the UAB defense (who returns 9 starters where all but 2 are juniors and seniors) will be able to hold their own. UCF has also turned the ball over too many times in the last 3 games. UAB has turned the ball over some too so it seems the turnovers will be about equal in this game. UCF will see a very pass heavy offense from UAB tonight. i wouldn't doubt UCF can with this game but it looks a lot closer than the 11.5 UCF is giving. my official pick is UAB tonight. GL with your play!

[CharleyS19]

Yeah, that was another thing, they are not replacing the kid that missed those field goals, CENFL is very stingy with points giving up an average of 15.5 this season compared to UAB giving up 31.2. That alone has to make you wonder if this is going to be a game that is decided by defense.

If the game is gonna be decided by defense then 11.5 seems like a lot to lay. At least the right team seems to be the favorite tonight (unlike last night)

[binomial]

It seems like I always get myself to switch to the losing side when i start thinking traps.

I like UAB also.

good luck.

[homerbush]

UAB has a crap offense and UCF a good defense the too combined are not a good combo for the over. Final score 28-7

[falconticket]

UAB has a crap offense and UCF a good defense the too combined are not a good combo for the over. Final score 28-7

I'm glad you put a lot into those thoughts

[Machine Choice]

I am kind of leaning to CENFL - 11.5 and Under 49. (a tight squeeze, I may just lay off the total)

If you take UCF -11.5, you're really taking UCF -12.5 because games don't end on 12. They end on 13 4% of the time.

[Facepunch]

Machine, with UCF's Defense a safety is not out of the question. The point was that I think the game will go under, but laying that many points and taking the under are a tight squeeze.