[nobs]

Well last two weeks we have posted 2 double digit dogs and both ended up winning the game straight up, so here I go for 3 in a row and its a done deal but this one wont be a straight up ML winner as Toledo was 2 weeks ago and Washington was last week. Still San Jose State + 39 1/2 will be a cover winner for sure this week, probably by 15 or more points.

First of all, Nevada is good. yes they are good, but this Wolf Pack team does not deserve to be a 40 point favorite over anyone much less a decent San Jose State team. yes, the wolf pack offense is putting up 44 points a game and thats good for 4th best in the nation, but they have had their troubles on defense and they will probably have to hold San Jose State to 1 score or 0 in order to cover this. That wont happen.

Nevada's QB Colin Kapernick has had a good year so far. In 5 games, he has 7 TD passes and amazingly has rushed for another 9. Kapernick has thrown for over 1000 yards and rushed for another 548 yards. His average of nearly 110 yards rushing per game probably is #1 in college football.

Kapernick alone is going to give San Jose State's defense fits and the Wolf Pack also come in with Running Back Taua who is running the ball for 125 yards per game this season. The problem is that the Wolf Pack has played a pretty dismal schedule this year.

Nevada allowed 24 points to an Eastern Washington team who only scored 7 against Montana State. They allowed 31 to California, a team that only scored 9 against Arizona. They also allowed 26 points to a 1-4 UNLV team that had only been averaging 20 points per game playing Idaho and New Mexico. The only strong defensive outing has had this season was allowing 6 points against Colorado State. Thats a Rams team that is 119th in scoring and has been held to 10 or less in 4 of its 5 games. And was in fact held to less than 6 points twice already this season.

Now San Jose State, yes its true that they have only scored 10 points per game this year. Thing is, 10 points will be enough to cover the 39 1/2 points spread on Saturday. Also, they will score quite a bit more than 10 against Nevada Wolf Pack.

The Spartans have played the best defenses in the nation this year. They have played Alabama, Wisconsin, and Utah. All 3 of these teams bring vastly superior Defenses than does Nevada. And San Jose scored points against all 3 of those powerful defenses. so its very misleading to read too much into San Jose's offense only putting up 10 points per game.

Fact is Alabama only scored 48 points on san Jose, Wisconsin only scored 27. Utah got 56, but thats an amazing offense. Not even 56 will be enough because you mark my words , the Spartans will put up 17 against Nevada.

Nevada will winthis game, but not by even close to 40 points. The most Nevada will score is 41-44 and San Jose will get at least 10 and I say 17. I will call it Nevada 38 San Jose 17.

This spread is ludicrous. I dont care that Nevada is 5-0 and San Jose State is 1-4. The spead is way way way too high and The Spartans will cover this spread.

[ManBearPig]

This is a fair assessment of Nevada and the game. As a fan of Nevada I would tend to agree with you but there's just one I would add and that's the home field. We are a tough team at home and tend to play really well which leads to us scoring really well. I must admit I was surprised by the line myself and I think it's a little large but I wouldn't be surprised if we hit it. I think we score 50+ easy but there could be a backdoor cover possibly as the 2nd and 3rd stringers come in. Also keep in mind that this is a homecoming game and their first home game since becoming ranked.

If I had to say I would pick the over and then the SJSU cover as 1b.

[Terrapin Station]

I like for SJSU to cover as well. GL

[nobs]

Thanks for the resposes guys.

Man Bear Pig,


Maybe they score 50+ but I really doubt it. But even 55 wont get them a cover. You think you can hold SJ ST to under 17 ? I dont. SJ ST had already played 3 higher ranked teams than Nevada those games were all on the road so SJ St is used to going into a hostile enviornment.

they score at Bama, they scored at Utah, and they scored a lot at Wiscy. They will score 17 at Nevada pretty easy I think so unless Nevada scores 60 i dont see them covering and they might well not even cover if they break 60, which they wont IMO, but still I will take my chances getting 40 points

[ManBearPig]

No...of course I think they can score 17 (I would be shocked if they score < 17) and I'm in agreement with you about them covering the 40, but I know these teams well and wouldn't rule it out. Nevada will drop 50+ easier than it won't but it's how much. I see a 55-24 type game which is why I'm a fan of the over as opposed to the cover. I'm only offering a different perspective because I know the conference and the teams.

[PeePee]

I like it.

Thanks, Nobs

[texhooper]

manbearpig...55-24? you really think sjst will score 24 points? no way in fvcking hell do they have their offensive coming out party at nevada. they have not yet scored over 20 all season.

san jose state lost...LOST...to uc davis. they are pathetic and they probably will be lucky to score in double digits in nevada. this is a play on nevada or none at all. nevada could win 55-10 easily.

[LLXC]

Have to agree here.

[ManBearPig]

manbearpig...55-24? you really think sjst will score 24 points? no way in fvcking hell do they have their offensive coming out party at nevada. they have not yet scored over 20 all season.

san jose state lost...LOST...to uc davis. they are pathetic and they probably will be lucky to score in double digits in nevada. this is a play on nevada or none at all. nevada could win 55-10 easily.

I know Nevada and they could shut out SJSU as easily as they allow 24...do I expect them to no, but I wouldn't be surprised. We've been known to underwhelm lesser opponents. The defense is much improved in the secondary this year which should keep them out of the endzone mostly. I see a lot of sacks and 3 and outs, but there's always the random freak play you don't expect that can blow your cover.

You guys go ahead and play whatever you wish because I won't be on this one anyways. I do like the over though.

[dnange1z]

san jose is garbage how can u make this bet? Nevada is as good as Utah in my eyes and UTah SMASHED THEM SO HARD

[sportfan]

SJSU lost many key players due to injuries i believe at least 9 , there start up QB La Secla with rib injury and prolly will miss this game , its gonna be ugly .

[Intuitive_Edge]

that team shouldn't be in an FBS conference. GL

[superman613]

i will be all over the nevada team total over

[Duby]

I agree SJST will score more than once in this one. I will be on Nevada TT over

Nice writeup!

[tripleblack1705]

Take nevada 1st half and the over.

[BigdaddyQH]

San Jose State has only convered 1 game this season. This is a pass. Mickey Mouse games do not interest me.

[nobs]

I like it.

Thanks, Nobs

Thanks peepee. You the man and this play will cover

[nobs]

San Jose State has only convered 1 game this season. This is a pass. Mickey Mouse games do not interest me.

All +EV bets interest me, I am not one of those that just has to bet the Alabama/Florida or Texas/Oklahoma games.

I guess we are just different that way.

[nobs]

manbearpig...55-24? you really think sjst will score 24 points? no way in fvcking hell do they have their offensive coming out party at nevada. they have not yet scored over 20 all season.

san jose state lost...LOST...to uc davis. they are pathetic and they probably will be lucky to score in double digits in nevada. this is a play on nevada or none at all. nevada could win 55-10 easily.

Yeah ur right, they didnt score 20 at #1 Alabama, and they didnt score 20 at #13 Utah and they only scored 14 at #11 Wisconsin. Now I realize they have played horrible teams all on the road so the fact that they average 10 points a game ( which will be enough to cover Saturday ) is horrific since they have played at 3 teams that are much better than Nevada ( and they scored on all 3 of them ).

Now Nevada has given up big points to every team they played except Colorado State and even though they held the Rams to 6 there are 2 teams that held the Rams to less.

Eastern Wa scored 24 on Nevada, Cal 31, Unlv 26, BYU even got 13 and their offense sucks.

not to Mention SJ ST held Bama to 48 and Wiscy to 27. Nevada is gonna need 60 minimum to have a chance to cover 40 because SJ ST is going to score 17 or more.

I am not questioning who will win this game but really how many times SJ ST has covered this year is 100% meaningless on Saturday ( Its like laying -500 on heads because the last 10 flips heads came 9 times ), I know Nevada will win but there is a point where the handicap is just way too high, and that is here.

Nevada is not going to cover 40 points

[nobs]

I actually like the over a little bit too

[WorkHorse]

Nobs, you may very well have a good play and then who knows? I wouldn't use the Alabama game as any kind of gauge in determining how well SJS might perform. I was at the Bama/SJS game and Saban could have hung a 100 if he wanted to. That's not his style. He played 48 different players in the first quarter and for the game played everyone but the lead cheerleader.

Having to travel across country to play Alabama and then another long road trip to Wisconsin took its toll on SJ. Hell, any team would be beat up after playing those two teams, especially on the road.

Good luck with your play though.

[bypp]

Excellent writeup. Thanks and GL

[nobs]

Thanks guys, I hear you. I will just leave it with this

Nevada is not going to cover 40 points

[zephyr]

Thanks for the writeup nobs. Lots of good stuff there. I follow Nevada though. I was leaning toward SJSU and the points, but then I saw the injuries SJSU has. Wow. Just insane. Here's what SJSU's coach said this week: "I've never heard of a team in history that you lose seven seniors that are starters who are out for the year. And you lose nine full-time starters going into your fifth game; they're out for the year. No, I've never heard of that. I couldn't even imagine it this bad injury-wise." On top of that, I realized it is Nevada's homecoming, which is a big deal in Reno. And someone mentioned that it's Nevada's first home game since being ranked. They don't get ranked very often. Also, I am thinking that Ault won't let up because he won't be able to. The offense isn't built for letting up. I'm pretty sure the second string runs the pistol. Oh, and one of those injuries to SJSU is a starting defensive end. I feel sorry for the second-stringer who is going to come into his first game facing this offense coming around the corner at him. I'm starting to think this could be really bad for the Spartans. I'm leaning Nevada minus whatever. Best to you all.

[nobs]

yeah they have injuries but the back up players are good enough to keep this under 40. Nevada wont cover the 40. Good Luck all

[ManBearPig]

yeah they have injuries but the back up players are good enough to keep this under 40. Nevada wont cover the 40. Good Luck all

The over is the play in this game...we will cover the 60+ by ourselves most likely. Last year we clowned them 62-7 and it wasn't even that close...on the road. This year we have taken 5 steps forward and they have taken 10 steps back. Between that and the injuries it be a long day and will probably get embarrassing by half time. Now Ault may call off the dogs in the 2nd (which may blow a cover) but we will still score pts. The holes that we'll have to run through will make it hard not to score, even when we're not trying. SJSU is not the same team they were at the beginning of the year even.

Take the over 1H/GM. That's where the value is IMO.

[Boscoe]

Nice write up. I love finding opportunities to play huge dogs like this.

[kevinslack1016]

calling san jose state decent is the biggest overstatement i have ever heard. They're decent in an intramural league maybe

[JayTrotter]

I would be willing to bet that nevada does not punt in this game. where can i bet on this prop?

[AMcBoarder]

Nice write up. I love finding opportunities to play huge dogs like this.

If you want to play a huge dog look at Wyoming against TCU.

[nobs]

Yeah they are "decent" and if anything thats an understatement. SJ ST has played 3 top 10 teams already and Nevada will be the 4th ranked team they have faced this year.

last year they played Boise State, Utah, Freso State, Nevada, Wisconsin, USC, Stanford, Idaho, so dont read too much into their 2-10 record last year or 1-4 this year. This team is playing a very strong schedule every year so playing at Nevada isnt going to scare them.

I would probably go with the over as well but I am not playing the total, but I appreciate all the counter points made here, I cant deny that Nevada will win of course, but even reading the others' opinions I just still say there is pretty much no way that Nevada is going to cover the 39 1/2.

I see the number down to 38 1/2 some places, 39 other places. probably closes at 37.

We will just have to wait and see and I will come back and post here win or lose, but I say now there is no way Nevada is going to win by 40

[biird]

San Jose State running the Pistol against the inventor of the Pistol...something to think about beyond the stats.

[RibbedTrojan]

great write up guys.

[nobs]

Well Wyoming got smacked 45-0, glad I didnt take that advice.


Line is down to 37 some places, I got it at 39 1/2. Good Luck to all

Nevada is not going to cover the 39 1/2

[tripleblack1705]

Glad I stayed away from this one