1. 10-02-10 10:26 AM #1
    ShivaBowl
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    New College Football Artificial Intelligence System:

    Sportrends, has decided to put up their new College Football Artificial Intelligence System, on their website.

    Neural Networks may become the next best way to predict NCAAF games, by finding ways to build mathematical models and identify critical statistics that provide the most reliability in predicting outcomes of future team performances. As most football fans might surmise, the combination of one team's passing offense compared to the other team's passing defense is a key factor in the outcome of a game. Likewise, rushing offense versus rushing defense is also a critical determinant. In addition, turnovers have been identified as significant variables, with interceptions appearing to matter more than fumbles. Obviously, point differential and team records are also a noteworthy consideration. We at Sportrends have settled on 12 statistical comparisons per team, plus home-field advantage for a total of 25 variables to identify teams which have a very good chance of covering the spread. What really matters is how the two teams match up. For example, lets assume one team has a great passing offense and its opponent has a weak secondary, while the second team has a good offensive line, and the first team has a week defensive line. What happens? How will that affect the outcome? Our model is designed to learn to predict that. As the season progresses, the predictions should become even more accurate because the neural network will become more refined.
    Team picks have incorporated a 5 point overlay and will pass any game where the favorite is greater then 15 points. Scores are based on last year stats. We recommend you wait until each team has played 3 games.
    Thanks Sportrends
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-02-10 at 11:16 AM.
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  2. 10-02-10 10:26 AM #2
    ShivaBowl
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    Filters; AI System.
    Picks need to be checked and updated on game day.
    Teams must have played at least 3 games.
    5 point overlay.
    Pass on any game where the favorite is greater then 15 points.
    I personally don't play small colleges, that doesn't mean you cant.
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-03-10 at 01:50 AM.
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  3. 10-02-10 10:27 AM #3
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System CF 09/26
    Plays based on early lines.

    Idaho, To -9, Loss
    Nevada, To -12.8, Win
    San Diego State, To -16.5, Win
    Central Michigan, + 3.2 >, Win
    Ohio, + 3.8 >, Win
    Central Florida, +5 >, Win
    Alabama-Birmingham +5.2 >, Win
    West Virginia, +6.8 >, Win
    Oregon, To -13.3, Loss
    North Carolina State, +6 >, Win
    Temple, +10 >, Win
    Kentucky, +8.2 >, Loss
    Stanford, To -11.9, Win
    Army, To -3, Win
    Air Force, To -15, Loss

    Each of these teams, have played 3 games going into Sat.
    First week using the AI System,
    11-4

    AI System for the NFL, starts this week.
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-02-10 at 10:46 AM.
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  4. 10-02-10 10:28 AM #4
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System CF: 09/30 to 10/02
    Plays based on early lines.

    Oklahoma State    , to -21.7    ___close, -2.5 -135 WIN
    Utah State, to -5.7___close, +4.5 +165 WIN
    Idaho, to -9.8
    Bowling Green, to -19.1
     Eastern Michigan, to -3.9
    Miami (Ohio), to - 17.5
    Toledo, to -18.6
    Michigan State, pk to + 1 and over
     Southern California, to -20.5
    North Carolina State, to - 11.6
         Texas El Paso, to -45.1
    Texas Tech, to - 24.9
    Iowa, to -21.2
         Army, to - 12.1
    Indiana, + 5.5 and over
    Clemson, to -2.3
    Arkansas State, to - 2.4
    Kansas, + 4.1 and over
    East Carolina, to - 18.7
    Maryland, to - 28.7

    Examples;
    Thursday September 30, 2010
    Oklahoma State, you have a play on OKST, to -21.7___current line, OKST -3.5

    Friday October 1, 2010
    Utah State, you have a play on Utah State, to -5.7___current line, UT +4
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-02-10 at 11:46 AM.
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  5. 10-02-10 11:05 AM #5
    HoulihansTX
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  6. 10-02-10 11:10 AM #6
    drfunkmaster
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    I hope its all right except the michigan state game..
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  7. 10-02-10 11:46 AM #7
    ShivaBowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    HoulihansTX; If your interested, please feel free, to post the FL&A System here, http://www.sportrends.com/team_matchups_cfb.htm

    Line Value 7
    No DD Spreads
    Thanks, BOL
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  8. 10-02-10 01:35 PM #8
    kp126
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    very interestng start
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  9. 10-03-10 02:04 PM #9
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System CF: 09/30 to 10/02
    Plays based on early lines.

    Oklahoma State    , to -21.7    ___close, -2.5 -135 WIN
    Utah State, to -5.7___close, +4.5 +165 WIN
    Idaho, to -9.8 WIN
    Bowling Green, to -19.1 Loss
     Eastern Michigan, to -3.9 Loss
    Miami (Ohio), to - 17.5 WIN
     Toledo, to -18.6 Loss
    Michigan State, pk to + 1 and over WIN
     Southern California, to -20.5 Loss
     North Carolina State, to - 11.6 Loss
         Texas El Paso, to -45.1 Win
    Texas Tech, to - 24.9 Loss
     Iowa, to -21.2 Win
         Army, to - 12.1 Loss
    Indiana, + 5.5 and over Win
    Clemson, to -2.3 Loss
    Arkansas State, to - 2.4 Loss
    Kansas, + 4.1 and over Loss
    East Carolina, to - 18.7 N/P
     Maryland, to - 28.7 Loss

    8-11
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-04-10 at 07:46 AM.
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  10. 10-05-10 08:00 AM #10
    ShivaBowl
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    Complimentary Selection from Sportrends, for 10/5/2010
    Take Troy over Middle Tenn St No Play if < +3.5

    No Play on Troy, if under +3.5
    BOL
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  11. 10-05-10 08:30 AM #11
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Play
    Wednesday October 6, 2010
    UAB +2.7 and over
    Current Line; UAB + 12.5
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-05-10 at 01:53 PM.
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  12. 10-05-10 08:36 AM #12
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Play
    Thursday October 7, 2010
    Nebraska to -67.8
    Current Line; Neb -12

    Look at the, to -67.8 as Line Value,
    if that helps.
    You have a Play on Neb up to -67.8 that's the AI System Differential.
    Will update plays later.
    bol
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-05-10 at 08:46 AM.
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  13. 10-08-10 08:39 AM #13
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Plays
    Based on early lines.

    Florida Atlantic, to - 5.4
    Bowling Green, +3.5 and over
    Georgia Tech, to - 12
    Utah, to - 26.4
    San Diego State, to - 26.4
    Texas El Paso, to - 16.3
    Northern Illinois, to - 5.2
    Houston, to - 8.8
    Michigan, to - 6.7
    Syracuse, + 2.7 and over
    Illinois, + 4.3 and over
    Florida State, + 1 and over
    East Carolina, + 5.4 and over
    Wake Forest, to - 1.2
    North Carolina State, to - 17.2
    Army, to - 10.2
    Texas A&M, to - 9.5
    Alabama, to - 9.8
    Nebraska, to - 21.2 WIN, good start
    Alabama-Birmingham, + 2.7 and over, Loss, Pass
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  14. 10-09-10 09:11 AM #14
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Plays 10/09
    UPDATED
    Based on early lines.

    Florida Atlantic, to - 5.4
    Utah State, to -3
    Bowling Green, +3.5 and over
    Utah, to - 26.4
    San Diego State, to - 26.4
    Texas El Paso, to - 16.3
    Houston, to - 8.8
    Michigan, to - 6.7
    Syracuse, + 2.7 and over
    Illinois, + 4.3 and over
    Florida State, + 1 and over
    East Carolina, + 4.6 and over
    Wake Forest, to - 1.2
    North Carolina State, to - 17.2
    Army, to - 10.2
    Texas A&M, to - 9.5
    Alabama, to - 11.8
    Nebraska, to - 21.2 WIN,
    Alabama-Birmingham, + 2.7 and over, Loss, Pass.
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-09-10 at 10:08 AM.
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  15. 10-09-10 09:12 AM #15
    ShivaBowl
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    Complimentary Selection From Sportrends for 10/9/2010
    Take Tennessee over Georgia No Play if < +11.5
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  16. 10-09-10 11:10 PM #16
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Plays 10/09
    Based on early lines.

    Florida Atlantic, to - 5.4 Loss, I passed
    Utah State, to -3 Loss, I Passed
    Bowling Green, +3.5 and over, Loss, I passed
    Utah, to - 26.4 Win
    San Diego State, to - 26.4 Loss
    Texas El Paso, to - 16.3, Win, I passed
    Houston, to - 8.8 Loss, I passed
    Michigan, to - 6.7, Loss
    Syracuse, + 2.7 and over , Win
    Illinois, + 4.3 and over, Win
    Florida State, + 1 and over, Win
    East Carolina, + 4.6 and over Win
    Wake Forest, to - 1.2 Win
    North Carolina State, to - 17.2, Win
    Army, to - 10.2, Win,
    Texas A&M, to - 9.5, No Play
    Alabama, to - 11.8, Loss
    Nebraska, to - 21.2 WIN,
    Alabama-Birmingham, + 2.7 and over, Loss, I passed

    10-8
    Games I Played 9-3

    Syracuse, Illinois, Florida State, Army, I have to give credit to sportrends, nice work on these plays.
    4 road dogs, all outright winners.
    Thanks
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-09-10 at 11:40 PM.
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  17. 10-13-10 07:39 AM #17
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Play
    10/13/10

    Central Florida to -14.4
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  18. 10-13-10 08:06 AM #18
    falconticket
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    I can pick losers as good as the BS computers.
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  19. 10-13-10 08:20 AM #19
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Play
    10/13/10
    Central Florida to -14.4


    AI System Play
    10/15/10
    Louisville, to - 4.9
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-13-10 at 08:44 AM.
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  20. 10-13-10 08:50 AM #20
    jackmyhoggoff
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    thanks gla !!
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  21. 10-13-10 09:03 AM #21
    Kubilak
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    Some of these results seem counter-intuitive. I don't think anyone would have been taking bama at -10 or -11, and not many thought Michigan were capable of covering a -6 or -7 spread over MSU.

    The system is still over 50% so lets see if it picks up steam or loses it I guess.
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  22. 10-14-10 08:25 AM #22
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Play
    10/13/10
    Central Florida to -14.4 WIN
    UCF -6.5 TL 45 W/Over
    UCF 35-14


    AI System Play
    10/15/10
    Louisville, to - 4.9
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  23. 10-14-10 08:57 AM #23
    Ca$hfloW
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    Any play tonight?
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  24. 10-14-10 09:08 AM #24
    ShivaBowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ca$hfloW View Post
    Any play tonight?
    No AI plays,
    One Comp Play;
    Kansas +3 and over
    GL

    Complimentary Selection From Sportrends 10/14/2010
    Take Kansas over Kansas St No Play if < +3
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-14-10 at 09:25 AM.
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  25. 10-14-10 09:34 AM #25
    Romanov
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    So take KU moneyline
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  26. 10-15-10 08:49 AM #26
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Play
    10/13/10
    Central Florida to -14.4 WIN
    UCF -6.5 TL 45 W/Over
    UCF 35-14

    AI Play
    10/15/10
    Louisville, to - 4.9Loss
    Louisville +2.5 TL 55.5 W/Over
    Cinn 35-27
    AI Plays
    Plays based on early lines.
    10/16/10

    Maryland, to - 4
    Michigan State, to - 13
    Arkansas State, + 2 and over
    Eastern Michigan, + 5 and over
    Army,
    UNLV, + 1.5 and over
    Nebraska, to - 17.4
    Oklahoma State, to - 8.5
    Texas El Paso, to - 11.8
    Kentucky, + 3.9 and over
    Baylor, to - 6.2
    Ohio State, to - 8
    North Texas, to - .5
    Nevada, to - 11.2
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-16-10 at 12:31 AM.
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  27. 10-15-10 09:03 AM #27
    HoulihansTX
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShivaBowl View Post
    HoulihansTX; If your interested, please feel free, to post thehere, http://www.sportrends.com/team_matchups_cfb.htm Line Value 7 No DD Spreads Thanks, BOL
    Plays based on early lines.
    10/16/10

    FL&A System
    I want to do this, but there is no explanation for how the system is supposed to be understood.

    I will list the teams, with the numbers that are listed next to them. I am guessing that the numbers represent the strength of the play?

    Rice 16.44
    Lousville 12.53
    Army 11.70
    Virginia 8.01
    Minnesota 7.99
    Navy 7.83
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  28. 10-15-10 09:17 AM #28
    Kubilak
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    Suggesting Kansas at +3 scares me off whatever system you use. I saw no credible information leaning Kansas except for "take the home dog on Thursday night".

    Any of the nuts and bolts behind your picks?
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  29. 10-15-10 09:24 AM #29
    ShivaBowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kubilak View Post
    Suggesting Kansas at +3 scares me off whatever system you use. I saw no credible information leaning Kansas except for "take the home dog on Thursday night". Any of the nuts and bolts behind your picks?
    Please read the post, Kansas, was not, a system play.
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  30. 10-15-10 09:50 AM #30
    ShivaBowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by HoulihansTX View Post
    Plays based on early lines. 10/16/10 FL&A System I want to do this, but there is no explanation for how the system is supposed to be understood. I will list the teams, with the numbers that are listed next to them. I am guessing that the numbers represent the strength of the play? Rice 16.44 Lousville 12.53 Army 11.70 Virginia 8.01 Minnesota 7.99 Navy 7.83
    Looks good Houlihans, the numbers do represent the strength of the play, or the line value, of that play.
    If you wish, you could use filters, on what’s working. Thanks
    BOL
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  31. 10-15-10 03:58 PM #31
    GGPLAYER
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    AI Plays
    Plays based on early lines.
    10/16/10

    Arkansas State, + 2 and over
    Eastern Michigan, + 5 and over
    UNLV, + 1.5 and over
    Kentucky, + 3.9 and over

    Based on previous weeks results consider taking the Over on these 4 games. Overs for underdogs have gone 8-1.
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  32. 10-16-10 09:55 AM #32
    ShivaBowl
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    Quote Originally Posted by GGPLAYER View Post
    AI Plays Plays based on early lines. 10/16/10 Arkansas State, + 2 and over Eastern Michigan, + 5 and over UNLV, + 1.5 and over Kentucky, + 3.9 and over Based on previous weeks results consider taking the Over on these 4 games. Overs for underdogs have gone 8-1.
    Good Work GGPLAYER, please feel free to post your total plays, with the AI System. Thanks!

    [quote]GGPLAYER;6885745]
    GGP System, Total Plays
    10/16/10
    Arkansas State, Play/Over
     Eastern Michigan, Play/Over
     UNLV, Play/Over
     Kentucky, Play/Over
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-16-10 at 11:00 PM.
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  33. 10-16-10 02:49 PM #33
    GGPLAYER
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    Quote Originally Posted by ShivaBowl View Post
    Good Work GGPLAYER, please feel free to post your total plays, with the AI System. Thanks!

    [quote]GGPLAYER;6885745]
    GGP System, Over TL Plays
    10/16/10
    Arkansas State, 37pt 4th quarter!
    Eastern Michigan, I bet E. Mich and forgot to bet the over
    UNLV, 44pts at half time....looking good
    Kentucky,

    Not to jinx things but it's goig well so far today.
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  34. 10-16-10 03:01 PM #34
    ShivaBowl
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    [quote=GGPLAYER;6903959] Not to jinx things but it's goig well so far today.[/quote]

    [quote]GGPLAYER;
    GGP System, Total Plays
    10/16/10
    Arkansas State, Play/Over WIN
     Eastern Michigan, Play/Over WIN
     UNLV, Play/Over WIN
     Kentucky, Play/Over WIN
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-16-10 at 10:59 PM.
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  35. 10-16-10 04:08 PM #35
    ShivaBowl
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    AI System Plays
    10/16
    8-6
    Last edited by ShivaBowl; 10-17-10 at 08:48 AM.
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