[Chance Harper]

NCAAF Odds: Alabama at Arkansas Razorbacks

Arkansas fans will be out in force in Fayetteville this Saturday for a big SEC contest against top-ranked Alabama. The No. 10 Razorbacks are coming off a last-minute win as college betting underdogs on the road at Georgia and will rely on signal caller Ryan Mallett to lead the way. Mark Ingram and the Crimson Tide are at least touchdown betting favorites in the battle than can be seen on CBS.

Blue Devils head coach David Cutcliffe said something noteworthy following Alabama’s 62-13 drubbing of Duke last Saturday. Asked by a reporter what he thought of this year’s edition of the Crimson Tide, Cutcliffe replied quite bluntly.

“This is the best Alabama team I’ve ever seen,” he said.

High praise, indeed. You have to take the comment with a grain of salt considering ‘Bama just put his Duke squad through the grinder, but at the same time, not many people are better qualified to make such a statement.

Cutcliffe went to Alabama, and has coached mostly in the SEC throughout his career. Last Saturday’s matchup in Durham was Cutcliffe’s 26th game against the Tide.

If he’s right, the No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) had better be one hell of a college football team if they’re to cover in Fayetteville against No. 1 Alabama (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) on Saturday afternoon (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS).

If the Tide are as great as they’ve ever been, then so is the conference it headlines as the nation’s top-ranked school. Six SEC teams are in the top 15 in the USA Today/Coaches’ Poll for the first time since the league expanded 18 years ago, while five SEC schools are ranked in the top 15 in the AP tally.

Alabama is about to find out the hard way that its conference is easily the deepest in the land. After taking on Arkansas, the Tide host No. 9 Florida before playing at No. 12 South Carolina. Strength of schedule, much?

Oddsmakers opened Alabama as a 7-point favorite against Arkansas, and the spread has held there. Some betting odds shops have the Tide giving 7½ points to the Razorbacks, who downed Georgia 31-24 as 1½-point road underdogs on a last-minute touchdown last week.

Emerging Heisman Trophy candidate Ryan Mallett’s 40-yard connection with Greg Childs with 15 seconds left lifted Arkansas to the win after it blew a two-touchdown lead in the fourth quarter.

Mallett, who leads the nation with 1,081 passing yards to go along with nine TDs, finished 21-of-33 for 380 yards with three scores against the Bulldogs. The 6-foot-7 junior nicknamed “Big Tex” has also completed 70% of his passes this season for an average of 11 yards per reception.

Mallett has matured a lot under center since last season, and he’ll need to stay collected against an Alabama defense that ranks second among FBS schools with 6.3 points against per game.

Nick Saban’s Tide certainly stifled Mallett when the schools met in Tuscaloosa last season. Mallett went only 12-of-35 for 160 yards with a TD strike and a pick in ‘Bama’s 35-7 rout as 17½-point faves.

The Tide roared out to a 28-0 lead, forcing Mallett back to pass on nearly every possession of the second half. As poorly as the Razorbacks defense performed overall in last season’s meeting, at least it managed to keep Mark Ingram in check.

Ingram was held to 50 yards and a touchdown on 17 attempts last September, but it’s a case of Bobby Petrino picking his poison. While Ingram was drawing attention, Greg McElroy quietly iced Arkansas by going 17-of-24 for 291 yards with three TDs.

That’s the problem for the Razorbacks. Keep tabs on Ingram and Trent Richardson, and McElroy goes off. Play it straight up, and Ingram, who racked up 151 yards with two scores on only nine carries in his return from knee surgery last week, does them in.

Arkansas has a nice defense, but it’s an unproven unit against elite teams. My sense is Alabama will score its share of points on Saturday, while it’s unclear if Mallett is fully ready to match points against arguably the nation’s best defense.

The total for Saturday’s affair is set at 54½. The ‘under’ is 11-4-1 in the Tide’s last 16 SEC games, but I’m leaning towards the ‘over’ after both teams posted some excellent offensive numbers last week. The Razorbacks are 7-1 O/U in their last eight games at Razorback Stadium.

[bypp]

Excellent writeup. Thanks!