I posted this in my season long thread (which can be found here: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/college-fo...on-thread.html) yesterday (which explains the good line price), but I wanted to put it in it's own thread as well since this seems like the most hyped game of week 3. I am a student at Iowa, and have a pretty good grasp of the team and its capabilities. I won a 1.5 Unit play on Iowa last week and am now 16-6 +39.1 Units posting on this forum and across the street last year.


Going to get this first one in early, line could go in either direction or stay put, all I know is if I get this in now I can't lose if Iowa wins the game which is what I expect to happen. I'll include a brief description of why I like the play but will probably stop doing any type of write ups after this because it doesn't seem worth it.

Iowa Hawkeyes -1 -106 risking 1.06 Units to win 1.0 Unit

Alright, this is going to solidify my homer image but whatever, the results of my picks don't lie and I call it like I see it. I would not be afraid to bet against Iowa when the time is right, but now is not the time. I'm going to squeeze all of the value I can out of this team before conference play starts. Iowa isn't as flashy as other top teams, but they know how to get the job done. Defense wins games (and Championships) and that's Iowa's foundation. Last year Iowa held Foles to 6 for 11 passing for just 55 yards passing and 1 touchdown. Arizona had only 8 first downs the entire game and converted only 2 of 12 3rd down opportunities. Expect Iowa to come up with the big stops neccessary to steal a big road game like this. By running the ball with their two talented backs and grinding it out on defense, they have the ability to control the game against anyone they play. Last year Iowa handed AZ a 27-17 defeat here in Iowa City behind Adam Robinson's 101 YD, 2 TD effort. Hampton and Robinson should have similar if not better numbers this year as I feel Ferentz will want to establish the rushing game right out of the gate now that we will be playing on the road out West. Since this is our first road game and first real test of the season, it will be critical to not make mistakes... that is where Ricky Stanzi comes in. He had a few games last year where he nearly sh*t the bed (including a 5 INT game), but always took control when the game was on the line. I expect more of the same on Saturday. Iowa will wear down this Zona team, and our offense will play mistake free football to take the road victory. Arizona was impressive in their first two games but this will be a HUGE step up in competition. From a public perception I think this Iowa team is still slightly undervalued (yes, that is possible for a top 10 team) and might truly give Ohio State a run for their money in what could be the de facto Big Ten Championship Game come November 20th in Iowa City, but I'm getting ahead of myself. A win here will set the tone for the rest of the season and Iowa knows that. Arizona does have revenge coming of last year's loss, but Iowa is such an evenly balanced team that no matter how good an opposing defense is, they almost always find a way to get that game changing play or score. If this game is close late, expect a breakaway run, TE open over the middle, or WR a step ahead down the sidelines to seal it for Iowa.

I wouldn't bet on Arizona if I were you, this game is Iowa or pass... I recommend the Hawkeyes in this spot.