[Hotlanta Steam]

Normally I do not play this many road teams but I think the dogs below are outright winners in those and I think Memphis and Vandy are both not good football teams... Vandy's cover was very lucky last week and needed all kinds of breaks and Memphis football is just not good at all right now...Ark St and ULaLa both played SEC schools in hostile environments and Ark St looked a million times more ready to play than ULaLa...

Central Michigan +7.5 @ Temple

Ga Tech @ Kansas Under 49.5

East Carolina -13 vs Memphis

LSU -9.5 @ Vanderbilt

Stanford -6 @ UCLA

Ark St +2 @ UL Laf

5-4 last week including tough close misses on Northwestern and LSU. Won on ISU/NIU under, Syracuse, Kansas St, Boise and Oregon

[Hotlanta Steam]

Winner on CMU last night... still looking for objections on the below...anyone with any thoughts before I play these?

[homerbush]

I kinda like ucla and vandy with the points.

[coloradobuff]

tough to argue any really

[BigdaddyQH]

Good call on Central Michigan. The only thing that concerns me is that Ga. Tech's defense is not really great. If this game gets out of hand, and Tech starts scoring at will, Kansas my be able to back door the 49.5.

[Uncle Harv]

UCLA is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Stanford.

UCLA is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Stanford.

Without Gerhart in the backfield, I wouldnt make a play on Stanford here if someone gave me the money.

[Hotlanta Steam]

One of the reasons that I use trends as a last and very small piece of my handicapping as Stanford owned UCLA Saturday night no matter what the past may have said...

Had two late additional plays on Florida Atlantic +28 and NC State +3 thanks to Marcus Langdon over @ thewinningrx.com (he was previously with Who2beton way back when but had not seen his name in a long while) he knows his college football...analysis was almost dead on for most of his plays.

He was also on Arkansas St (and LSU!!)... we exchanged a few emails this morning about how crazy that game was...Ark St QB had over 400 yards passing and they only managed 24 pts... (Peyton Manning knows something about that today!!)

Anyways.. will put up my new plays by Thursday morning.

[Hotlanta Steam]

I am going to jinx the shit out of myself but this may be the easiest board I have seen in years...I could easily bet 15 games this Saturday but narrowed down after looking over them all... you will hate some of the chalk on the road but good team vs bad team is at work in most cases

First off Utah St was the last one I took off my sheet...they are the one I had slated for the free play as was the NC State under 55. That makes me laugh.

Arizona was another that I looked into a lot and still lean their way...the public likes Iowa for some reason... the only thing that worried me in the slightest was how Arizona did against a tough D (Nebraska) in the Holiday Bowl where they got blanked 33-0

Here is what I am playing....

Thursday
NC State -2 vs Cincy - NC State has played very well in two games so far and not turned the ball over yet and they have a mobile QB... Central Florida is better than Cincy by a fair margin IMHO and NC State beat UCF in Orlando... Cincy is living on Brian Kelly's coat tails only..

Friday
Cal -2.5 @ Nevada - This is a classic letdown look ahead sandwich game which is why the line is so low... Cal blows doors off Colorado and has @ Arizona after Nevada... it is completely against all handicapping prowess and I would say that I will pay for this one but in truth Nevada is not a good defense they let Eastern Wash (a lower tier 1AA school) get 432 yards and this is essentially the same team that got blown out by Notre Dame 33-0 last year... Cal is going to blow the doors off this game... also only a 3 hour drive so Cal will have plenty of support in Reno... I had this game capped @ -11 even knowing the letdown, look ahead sandwich combo...

Saturday
Navy -3.5 @ LaTech... everyone is thinking Navy is struggling because of the 13-7 game last week against Ga Southern but fail to realize that Ga Southern coach was from the Navy staff and knew everything...two amazing rushing teams combined for 307 total years between the two of them...Navy lost a tough game to a much improved Maryland team by 3 pts thanks to 2 for 7 in the red zone...fumbles galore... La Tech has a horrible defense especially against the run...

Northwestern -6 @ Rice - Classic under value of Northwestern and over value of Rice... they mostly dominated Vandy but just did not cover thanks to a turnover in the red zone and blocked FG. Rice played a very vanilla Texas team (whom I think might lose 3 games this year) and still lost by 17 despite a late covering TD against Texas' 2nd team D.. Rice only beat N Texas by 1pt thanks to 3 turnovers and despite being out gained 420 yards to 351.. Northwestern runs the same style offense as N. Texas only with way better personnel.

UConn -6 @ Temple - UConn was unlucky against a hungry Michigan in The Big House who is clearly better than people thought... Temple should have lost last week and will get man handled on the line of scrimmage on both sides. UConn got right last week winning 62-3 with 45 coming in the first half... this wont be a blow out but I do see 21-10..

Baylor +21.5 @ TCU - 3 TDs + with Robert Griffin and an Art Briles offense? They could be playing the best defense in the country and I am still going to take that.. Baylor needs to score 17 pts... I think they can handle that.. TCU is good but Griffin would be a Heisman winner already if he was on a big name team and had not torn his knee.. He already is schooling people and just getting a feel for things. They were up 34-3 last week after 3Qs and he rested in the 4th Q... he had almost 300 yards passing against a decent pass defense in Buffalo.

Central Mich -9 @ Eastern Mich - Central offense is good enough to score 24 pts... that is all they will need as long as they do not give up a defensive or special teams TD... Eastern Mich is bad bad bad... 31 yards passing against Army is not something to be proud of...

Arkansas St -4 v ULM - 3rd time is a charm for me... I have a very good read on this team...from all accounts the loss down @ UL Lafayette was a complete fluke...they had 500 yards of offense and scored 24 pts... ULM can't keep up on offense.. I am still convinced that Ark St wins the Sunbelt and that means winning this game by double digits in Jonesboro.

[crackerjack]

Nice write ups thx

[bbar86]

I'd go with temple. the rest looks fine

[Hotlanta Steam]

Easy enough winner on NC State... Will Cal start my weekend off right? I am banking on a big public rally this weekend with lots of supposed trap games turning out to be not so trappish...

[Hotlanta Steam]

5-3 on the week! Won some decent cash with heavier weight on Navy and Ark St... Shame that Cal was such a dumb trap play on my part otherwise it would have been a great weekend for the cash flow...

Back next week 14-9 on the season... I will take almost 61% all year long baby!!

[Hotlanta Steam]

I'd go with temple. the rest looks fine

Should have listened... did not get a chance to watch much of the game...UCONN clearly folded...

[Hotlanta Steam]

These are my early leans... I capped all these at 5-10 pts higher than the lines... you would think after last weeks Cal game that I would learn to stay away from trap games but alas I just think talent will win out and I think Cal was so poorly prepared for Nevada...

AirForce @ Wyoming 09/25/10(14:00 ET)
AirForce -12.5

The Zoomies have really really impressed me thus far... After watching Boise run all over Wyoming (whom I still think is a decent football team) I just have to play this game... Air Force out gained Oklahoma by almost 100 yards in their near upset and the defense was equally impressive holding the Sooners to 113 yards on the ground and also getting 2 sacks... Wyoming had 135 yards and 3 TOs against Boise who happens to run the exact same defensive scheme Air Force runs... I am expecting a solid 35-14 type win for Air Force in this one.

Alabama @ Arkansas 09/25/10(15:35 ET)
Alabama -7 (-130)
Buying 0.5 point

I have watched Alabama each week now... I hate them.. I dislike them on many different levels but they are just flat out good... all phases are working well... Duke runs a great offensive scheme and still had trouble moving the ball and putting points on the board... Alabama lost 3 turnovers and still the game was never remotely in doubt... Ryan Mallet is a great QB and Bobby Petrino knows offense but it is a lot harder to run offense of any type against the players Alabama is putting out on the field... Alabama is due for a let down game but I think everyone in the media is going to hammer that point all week and Saban will have these guys up for it... Too many weapons and too much discipline from Saban will have this game 31-13 and money in the bank for us...

ArkansasSt @ Troy 09/25/10(15:30 ET)
ArkansasSt +11

Two of the worst pass defenses play two of the best passing offenses... Both teams run a fun offensive system and both can't cover anyone to save their life... this will be a fun game but there is no way Troy can stop Ryan Aplin and his offense from scoring so giving up 11 pts is just silly really... close game.. 41-35, could go either way...

Army @ Duke 09/25/10(15:00 ET)
Duke -6.5

Duke just played Alabama... How slow is Army's defense going to look on Saturday? Duke can score on just about anybody besides the Top 5 teams in the country... No reason to think that Army's rushing offense can keep up... Duke kids are smart and disciplined which are the two keys to stopping the option.. Wakes offense is a little more tricky and pass oriented with athletes able to create space whereas Army lacks speed and relies on good structure... Duke should score enough to keep Army at bay... 38-24

Baylor @ Rice 09/25/10(20:05 ET)
Baylor -7 (-130)
Buying 0.5 point(s)

If Northwestern showed us anything last week.. it is that a good mobile QB will destroy Rice... Baylor went into a hornets nest last week in a game that most thought they could make a game out of...not so much as TCU got off early and often... Rice is nothing close to that kind of a team... Robert Griffin will have a field day since he wont be laying on his back all game... Baylor wins this one big but I buy the point just in case... 49-17

CMichigan @ Northwestern 09/25/10(12:00 ET)
Northwestern -7

Northwestern is super confident right now and I just do not see anyway other than turnovers that the Chips can keep them from scoring... I have made money on both teams last week and I just think that Northwestern is much more mature and not quite big headed enough to have a let down against the MAC like other BIG 10 teams often seem to do... Persa is a super player and Northwestern just face an offense very similar to CMUs last week with Rice and were fantastic with the only TD coming with 19 secs left in mop up time...

FresnoSt @ Mississippi 09/25/10(19:30 ET)
FresnoSt +2.5

Fresno always seems to lay an egg just when they are getting hot and garnering some attention... I was sure that egg was last week in St George Utah but old Pat Hill got his boys to come out and play and now they are playing an Ole Miss team that is in shambles... Fresno St should be favored in this game... Houston Nutt has no idea how to use Masoli at the moment and Fresno's D will make him throw the ball...not going to go well for Ole Miss... Fresno wins by a TD or more outright... 28-17

NorthCarolina @ Rutgers 09/25/10(15:35 ET)
NorthCarolina 0

write up to to come

Stanford @ NotreDame 09/25/10(15:35 ET)
Stanford -5

write up to to come

VirginiaTech @ BostonCollege 09/25/10(12:00 ET)
VirginiaTech -4

write up to to come

[THE PROFIT]

I couldnt agree more on Fresno. One of my bigger leans so far. These BCS conferences better get used to non-BCS schools coming at them with all they've got, but Fresno is the way better team here to begin with. I have them a 8-10 pt fav

[The DiB]

Keep an eye on Fresno's injury report. They could be missing as many as 5 starters, who have combined for 121 career games... this includes starting HB Robbie Rouse and their best OL. They were still able to win last week @ Utah State, but Utah State isn't exactly Ole Miss. If they get healthy this is a play I like as well.

[CMangano]

I like Fresno as well. I think they can win that game outright.

[Hotlanta Steam]

Keep an eye on Fresno's injury report. They could be missing as many as 5 starters, who have combined for 121 career games... this includes starting HB Robbie Rouse and their best OL. They were still able to win last week @ Utah State, but Utah State isn't exactly Ole Miss. If they get healthy this is a play I like as well.

Thanks will watch it closely.

[drfunkmaster]

i like your write ups.. good luck

[Hotlanta Steam]

Final Plays set in stone for tomorrow... just gonna sit back and watch TCU tonight... I do like the game but 17 pts scares me with June Jones' offense on the back door when TCU shuts it down up 30 in the 4th Q

So 14-9 on the season... lets get it up above 65%...

(305) C.Michigan @ (306) Northwestern 09/25/10(12:00 ET)
Northwestern -6.5

(315) Virginia Tech @ (316) Boston College 09/25/10(12:00 ET)
Virginia Tech -4

(323) Army @ (324) Duke 09/25/10(15:00 ET)
Duke -6.5

(329) Fresno St @ (330) Mississippi 09/25/10(19:30 ET)
Fresno St +2

(333) Air Force @ (334) Wyoming 09/25/10(14:00 ET)
Air Force -13.5 **2 UNIT PLAY**

(345) Stanford @ (346) Notre Dame 09/25/10(15:35 ET)
Stanford -4.5

(351) Idaho @ (352) Colorado St 09/25/10(15:00 ET)
Idaho -8 ***3 UNIT PLAY***

(377) Baylor @ (378) Rice 09/25/10(20:05 ET)
Baylor -7.5

(379) North Carolina @ (380) Rutgers 09/25/10(15:35 ET)
North Carolina -2

(389) Arkansas St @ (390) Troy 09/25/10(15:30 ET)
Arkansas St +11