[jcubs55]

Hey guys, I will be posting my plays in this thread for the whole season. Last year posting on another forum I was 15-6 +37.60 Units (betting 3-5 Units per play). PM me if you'd like to know more. I have an MLB thread on this forum where I'm up a handful of units as well. Just like baseball almost all of my plays will be 5.0 Units or less, with most being under 2.0 Units. I recently increased the $ amount per Unit, so my plays will be for less units than in the past... it's just easier that way. I like using the first week of the college season to see where I'm at and find some things out about certain teams so I haven't posted anything yet. So far I have one play for Week 2:

Iowa Hawkeyes -13.5 -102 risking 1.54 Units to win 1.5 Units

I am currently a student at Iowa and would like to think I have a solid grasp on our team. While I am a homer as a fan, I won't be a homer as a gambler, so don't worry about any biased plays. Iowa State usually brings their best against us in this in-state Rivalry, but that won't be enough this year. ISU has been good at covering the number in recent years but the gap between these two teams has started to widen within the last couple years. Two years ago they ended up covering by 1 point on a last second intentional safety by Iowa in a game that I thought Iowa played terrible in and still should've covered, and last year ISU got crushed 35-3. I expect another 17+ point win on Saturday. Even though Iowa State beat NIU last week, they looked pretty awful for almost three quarters and will have a tough time scoring with that offense againt Iowa's defense. Iowa has the best defensive line in the country and will be able to control this game with their rushing game and the return of Jewel Hampton, who will most likely get a solid number of carries even though Adam Robinson lit it up last week. It should be no concern if Hampton is eased back into the offense because Robinson is a more than capable alternative. This two-headed monster should make things easy on Stanzi who does a good job of controlling games. I'd be surprised if ISU scored more than 10 points on Saturday.
GL all

[Unchained]

+37 units very nice JCub.

Go Hawkeyes.

[jcubs55]

I like the quick start. Let's keep it rolling Hawks... DuhDuh DuhDuhDuh GO HAWKS

[jcubs55]

9/11 Results:

1-0 +1.5 Units

YTD:

1-0 +1.5 Units

[jcubs55]

Going to get this first one in early, line could go in either direction or stay put, all I know is if I get this in now I can't lose if Iowa wins the game which is what I expect to happen. I'll include a brief description of why I like the play but will probably stop doing any type of write ups after this because it doesn't seem worth it.

Week 3:

Iowa Hawkeyes -1 -106 risking 1.06 Units to win 1.0 Unit

Alright, this is going to solidify my homer image but whatever, the results of my picks don't lie and I call it like I see it. I would not be afraid to bet against Iowa when the time is right, but now is not the time. I'm going to squeeze all of the value I can out of this team before conference play starts. Iowa isn't as flashy as other top teams, but they know how to get the job done. Defense wins games (and Championships) and that's Iowa's foundation. Last year Iowa held Foles to 6 for 11 passing for just 55 yards passing and 1 touchdown. Arizona had only 8 first downs the entire game and converted only 2 of 12 3rd down opportunities. Expect Iowa to come up with the big stops neccessary to steal a big road game like this. By running the ball with their two talented backs and grinding it out on defense, they have the ability to control the game against anyone they play. Last year Iowa handed AZ a 27-17 defeat here in Iowa City behind Adam Robinson's 101 YD, 2 TD effort. Hampton and Robinson should have similar if not better numbers this year as I feel Ferentz will want to establish the rushing game right out of the gate now that we will be playing on the road out West. Since this is our first road game and first real test of the season, it will be critical to not make mistakes... that is where Ricky Stanzi comes in. He had a few games last year where he nearly sh*t the bed (including a 5 INT game), but always took control when the game was on the line. I expect more of the same on Saturday. Iowa will wear down this Zona team, and our offense will play mistake free football to take the road victory. Arizona was impressive in their first two games but this will be a HUGE step up in competition. From a public perception I think this Iowa team is still slightly undervalued (yes, that is possible for a top 10 team) and might truly give Ohio State a run for their money in what could be the de facto Big Ten Championship Game come November 20th in Iowa City, but I'm getting ahead of myself. A win here will set the tone for the rest of the season and Iowa knows that. Iowa is such an evenly balanced team that no matter how good an opposing defense is, they almost always find a way to get that game changing play or score, and if this game is close late, expect a breakaway run, TE open over the middle, or WR a step ahead down the sidelines to seal it for Iowa.

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Houston Cougars -3 -105 risking 1.575 Units to win 1.5 Units
Wisconsin Badgers -14 -105 risking 1.05 Units to win 1.0 Unit

[jcubs55]

Week 3 Results:

0-3 -3.685 Units

YTD:

1-3 -2.185 Units

Awful Hawks game... gave up 21 Points resulting from a pick 6, kickoff return TD, and blocked punt setting up 1st and Goal and yet we still only lost by 1 possession... so frustrating... gotta come back strong next week.

[jcubs55]

Week 4:

West Virginia +10 -102 risking 1.02 Units to win 1.0 Unit
Alabama -6.5 -115 risking 1.15 Units to win 1.0 Unit
NC State +8.5 -110 risking 1.10 Units to win 1.0 Unit
Northwestern -6.5 -107 risking 1.07 Units to win 1.0 Unit

Small attempts at some Dog MLs, won't count in record but will count in the unit tally:

NC State ML +280 risking 0.5 Units to win 1.4 Units
WVU ML +345 risking 0.5 Units to win 1.725 Units

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Notre Dame ML +170 risking 1.0 Unit to win 1.7 Units
Texas -15.5 -105 risking 1.575 Units to win 1.5 Units
Kentucky +14 EVEN risking 1.0 Unit to win 1.0 Unit

[jcubs55]

Want to get these posted early, will update records later:

Iowa Hawkeyes -6.5 -125 risking 2.5 Units to win 2.0 Units
Indiana Hoosiers +14 -120 risking 2.4 Units to win 2.0 Units

[jcubs55]

Week 4:

2-5 -2.895 Units

YTD: 3-8 -5.08 Units

[jcubs55]

9/30:

Oklahoma State ML -129 risking 3.87 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

9/30 Results:

1-0 +3.0 Units

YTD:

4-8 -2.08 Units


10/2:

Iowa Hawkeyes ML -256 risking 2.56 Units to win 1.0 Unit

[jcubs55]

Adding:

NC State +4 -105 risking 2.1 Units to win 2.0 Units

[jcubs55]

10/2 Results:

1-1 -1.1 Units

YTD:

5-9 -3.18 Units

[jcubs55]

10/16:

Iowa -3 -117 risking 4.68 Units to win 4.0 Units. Blowout.
Missouri +3.5 -109 risking risking 3.27 Units to win 3.0 Units
Oklahoma State +3.5 -114 risking 3.42 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

10/16 Results:

3-0 + 10.0 Units

These games weren't even close, finally had that perfect blowout weekend I was waiting for

YTD:

8-9 +6.82 Units

[jcubs55]

8/21:

UCLA +25.5 -105 risking 3.15 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Iowa Hawkeyes ML -215 risking 4.3 Units to win 2.0 Units
Iowa Hawkeyes -5.5 risking 1.05 Units to win 1.0 Unit
Oklahoma Sooners -3 EV risking 1.5 Units to win 1.5 Units

[jcubs55]

8/21 Results:

0-1 -3.15 Units, total will be updated after Saturday

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Texas Tech -2.5 -110 risking 1.65 Units to win 1.5 Units
North Carolina +6.5 -101 risking 1.01 Units to win 1.0 Unit

[jcubs55]

8/30:

Kentucky Wildcats +7 -115 risking 5.75 Units to win 5.0 Units
Kentucky Wildcats ML +215 risking 1.0 Unit to win 2.15 Units

[jcubs55]

Today:

Kentucky Wildcats -16 -105 risking 3.15 Units to win 3.0 Units
South Carolina Gamecocks +6 -105 risking 3.15 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

Going for the middle on the SC/FLA game...

Florida ML -225 risking 2.25 Units to win 1.0 Unit

Also, looks like everything has come together nicely for this one, gonna take a shot:

Arizona State Sun Devils +4.5 -110 risking 4.4 Units to win 4.0 units (+4.5 at Greek but you can get +5 at Bodog)

[jcubs55]

Today's Results:

3-1 +7.75 Units

YTD:

12-16-1 +4.06 Units

[jcubs55]

11/20:

Miami Florida ML +110 risking 2.0 Units to win 2.2 Units

[jcubs55]

Adding:

Oregon State +3.5 -117 risking 3.51 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

11/20 Results:

1-1 +1.0 Unit

YTD:

13-7-1 +5.06 Units

[jcubs55]

11/27:

Oklahoma Sooners +3 -110 risking 2.2 Units to win 2.0 Units

Also played Clemson ML +117 for the same amount but didn't get to post that in time, gl

[jcubs55]

11/27 Results:

1-0 +2.0 Units

Profited for record keeping purposes but in reality broke even on the day.

YTD:

14-17-1 +7.06 Units

[jcubs55]

Friday:

Illinois ML -205 risking 2.05 Units to win 1.0 Unit

[jcubs55]

Still shocked about this one... Fresno RB was clearly short by almost a FULL YARD on that 4th and 1 that would've put Illinois in Fresno State territory down two with 3 mins left... wow...

0-1 -2.05 Units... so much for being uber +EV with almost 45 cents of value on the dollar...

YTD:

14-18-1 +5.01 Units

[jcubs55]

Florida State +4.5 -110 risking 3.3 Units to win 3.0 Units

[jcubs55]

YTD:

14-19-1 +1.71 Units