[70kgman]

Been playing this for the last 5 seasons with great results. It is an entirely original system/strategy I came up with myself (with a logical concept behind them to justify it's success rate). Usually will give you 15-20 plays a season, and doesn't start until week 5.

* Starting week 5 (first week in October), bet against underdogs of 20 or more points who's run defense averages over 5 yards against per carry.

Filters:

A (I play these for 2 units): Team you are betting on run offense averages over 5 yards per carry.
B (I play these for 1 unit): Team you are betting on run offense averages between 4 and 5 yards per carry.
* Void any team meeting the system criteria if their run offense averages less than 4 yards per carry.

Note: Get them as soon as the lines come out, as the line usually continues to climb in favor of the favorite. You will typically get an extra 0.5 - 3 points of value wagering on the opening line most of the time.

I lost the notepad I had all the specifics of the past results documented in, but I pretty much remember them off the top of my head. Filter A had one season of the five where it finished one game under .500, but the other four years it finished between 70%-85%. Filter A has averaged out around 75% overall over the five seasons. Filter B has finished 66% or better all five years I have played it. Went 75% last season, was between 66% - 70% the other four years. Filter B has averaged out around 70% over the 5 seasons.

If this is useful to you and you feel inclined to throw me a couple points for sharing, that would be cool. I assure you all the past results I rattled off are accurate.

[Shahbucks]

Nice

[zacharyj53]

70-85%, that would work.

[mcbaseball10]

Great time to give you points for something that's starts 4 weeks from now.

[Donkwin47]

Will keep an eye on this, good luck this year.

[70kgman]

I had a season long thread at the covers forum last season that documented all the plays for this system, if it looks familiar to anyone.

[stefan084]

good info

[spongerat]

cool, you gonna post the plays?

[Duby]

I had a season long thread at the covers forum last season that documented all the plays for this system, if it looks familiar to anyone.

Yeah I remember following that thread last year

[sweethook]

so you sayin take the real big fav. after week 5

[PeePee]

mark this thread.... will be back in 4 wks.

[70kgman]

cool, you gonna post the plays?

Sure, I can do that.

[19th Hole]

Did you get this system from the guys
in you avater??

Good Luck To All!

[70kgman]

Did you get this system from the guys
in you avater??

Nope. They only broadcast NHL and German soccer plays to me with their telepathic transmissions.

[BigdaddyQH]

Good Luck, but pimpin for points is a bit tacky, don't you think?

[70kgman]

Good Luck, but pimpin for points is a bit tacky, don't you think?

It's not like that was the intent behind posting this, I just mentioned it would be cool if you threw a couple this way if you plan on using this information. I have spent countless hours tracking plays for the last 5 seasons, and eventually data mining through all the past results to filter out the best possible plays within that group, to eventually come to the finalized system I have now. And I didn't have to post it.

[Mike9999]

BOL this year

[70kgman]

Alright, here we go...

Filter A: Boise St. -40

Filter A: South Florida -21

Filter B: UCLA -25.5

[btd]

First time reading this thread , will be following and may even tail in the future, BOL

[MartinBlank]

Very interesting.

I am going to follow this one. Thanks for posting it.

[dume walker]

Alright, here we go...

Filter A: Boise St. -40

Filter A: South Florida -21

Filter B: UCLA -25.5

Very interesting. I left you points for your taking time to post your plays. Only one that makes me a little wary is S Fla. They didn't cover against Western Kentucky last week. First time WKU has beaten the spread this season.

[newguy]

This is not a chase right? So straight up?

[dume walker]

Also, FAU upset UAB on the road (same UAB that came close to beating Tenn on Saturday) and easily beat the spread against Michigan State, also on the road. One Florida team playing another for state bragging rights intensifies the battle. I know you're not supposed to pick and choose when you tail, but I'm going to lay off South Florida. BOL to you though.

[70kgman]

Very interesting. I left you points for your taking time to post your plays. Only one that makes me a little wary is S Fla. They didn't cover against Western Kentucky last week. First time WKU has beaten the spread this season.

Thanks for the points and heads up on S. Florida. The theory/concept behind this system is 20+ point spreads typically wont be close games, thus the favorite should spend a large amount of the 2nd half killing clock with their running game, exposing these bad run defenses and keeping the other teams offense off the field in the process late in the games, and yards per carry is the most significant run defense stat in my opinion. As long as S. Florida can get a 2-3 possession lead at some point in the 2nd half, I will feel good about their running game having no problem with UFA's 2nd worst run defense (YPC) in all of college football to ideally run up the score.

[70kgman]

This is not a chase right? So straight up?

Not a chase. Each wager is independent.

[ACCBlitz]

Interesting. I'll keep an eye on this one. My personal capping is a with the Boise play. Curious to see how the UCLA/USF games go.

[khaden]

I like it---will be following this

[dchecks]

UCLA has already jumped to -27

[Dutch]

I like these kind of systems. Even if they don't pan out, they give me a reason to go dig for stats, do some homework etc..

[jose21_us]

would you still play the ucla at -27?

[Flying Dutchman]

interesting system...

[Mirrapro]

Very interested to see how this turns out. Not so sure about this weeks games though...but anyways good luck!

[Duff85]

I will also be following along. I like the thinking behind it.

[Saintsfan1]

Thanks for posting you're info and the picks!

[Wrecktangle]

mark this thread.