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***The Knuckleballers 2010-2010 NCAAF Tracking Thread***
Many of you may have followed my thread last season. We ended the season up 38.4 Units, and we are looking forward to a new season. Week 1 is always a slow week, because my system has limited data to work with. Remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. Today, I have two 2 Unit picks to kick off the season. Good luck and enjoy the games!
**2 Unit Picks**
Northwestern -3
Notre Dame -10.5
With kickoff quickly approaching, I wanted to provide readers with a little analysis on each pick. Below are my write ups:
Notre Dame -10.5: Based on my effectiveness ratings, Purdue had the 102nd ranked defense last season. This season they are only bringing back 5 defensive starters and to make matters worse they have to visit South Bend for their first game. There are a lot of variables to this equation, but that is the case with any week 1 game. Per my system, I see a great deal of value in this line. Notre Dame has a new coach, new attitude, but they are getting no respect. Notre Dame is returning 17 starters this season, which makes Kelly’s job a little easier. Especially since 9 of the starters are on the defensive side of the ball. I have Notre Dame winning this game by 14+ points, and I love the fact that the public seems to be fading the Fighting Irish.
Northwestern -3: Northwestern is returning 16 starters, and they are opening the season against a team without a true identity. Vandy has a new coach and a lot of question marks. Vandy is returning just 11 starters and will likely continue to struggle on offense. Last season, Vandy moved the ball fairly well on the ground averaging about 4.3 yards per rush, but Northwestern had a tough rush defense allowing just 3.7 yards per rush. Northwestern’s defense struggled against the pass, but that will likely be a non issue in tonight’s matchup. I have Northwestern winning this game by 10+ points tonight.
Overall Record (1-1-0) -.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (0-0) 0 Units
Total Unit Based Record (2-2.2-0) -.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (47.62)
Today, I have one small Labor Day Play. It is listed below with full analysis. Good luck!!
*1 Unit Picks*
Boise State +1.5
As much as I think Boise State is overrated, my system has Boise State winning this game by no less than a field goal. Boise is returning more starters than any other team in college football. Per my ratings, Boise State had the most efficient offense in the nation last season, and I don’t expect much change this season with all eleven offensive starters returning. Boise has a plethora of weapons on offense and Coach Peterson has had an entire offseason to prepare for Virginia Tech’s simplistic approach on the offensive side of the ball. Tyrod Taylor could give Boise some trouble, but I expect Peterson’s team to be well coached and ready. Per my rankings, both defenses were very effective last season ending the season ranked in the top twenty. Unfortunately for Virginia Tech, they will be looking to replace six defensive starters. Over the course of the season, I don’t expect this to be a problem, but I would not be surprised to see some growing pains tonight. My prediction is that Boise State wins this game 28-24. This may leave you with the impression that I expect to see Boise State run the table this season. Quite the contrary, Boise State will slip up, I just don’t know when. Will it be Oregon State?
Last edited by TheKnuckleballer; 09-06-10 at 05:13 PM.
Overall Record (2-1-0) +.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (1-0) 1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (3-2.2-0) +.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (57.69%)
Below is tonight's pick:
*1 Unit Picks*
Central Michigan +7.5
Overall Record (3-1-0) +1.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-0) 2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (4-2.2-0) +1.8 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (64.52%)
We are off to a good start this season. I have one pick for tonight. Good luck!
*1 Unit Picks*
UTEP +19.5
UTEP upset Houston last season, so I’m certain that Keenum and the other 16 returning starters will be seeking revenge tonight. Similar to the lines makers, I believe that we will see a high scoring game tonight. My system has the total capped at 68 and the spread at Houston -10. There is enough discrepancy in the spread to make this a 1 Unit Pick. It is true that Houston averaged more total yards per game than any team in college football last season, but per my ratings, their offense ranked 45th in efficiency. This team is getting too many points in what should be a closer than expected game. My prediction is Houston 38 – UTEP 28. Good luck and get ready for a fun filled weekend!
Overall Record (3-2-0) +.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0) 0 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (0-0) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (1-1) -.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-1) .9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (4-3.3-0) +.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.79%)
Kansas +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): With visions of North Dakota State still on our minds it is hard to pick Kansas against a top 25 team such as Georgia Tech, but my system sees some value in this line. My system has Georgia Tech winning this game by the score of 31 -27, which would put the fair value of this line at Georgia Tech -4 with a total of 58. There may be some value in the Over as well, but I prefer to pick only spreads early in the season. My thought is that this line is likely inflated due to Kansas’s horrific performance last Saturday. My one concern is whether Kansas’s defense can stop the run. Per my ratings, the Jayhawks’s defense was ranked 90th in defensive effectiveness last season. This scares me, but when my system sees value, I capitalize.
Eastern Michigan +14 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Miami Ohio had a good showing against Florida last Saturday, but this is a team that won only one game last season. They are obviously a much improved squad with 20 returning starters, but do they deserve to be 14 point favorites in their home opener. My system shows this line as heavily inflated. If Miami Ohio wins this game, it will be by no more than 5 points. I predict that Miami Oho wins 27-24, which provides us with an easy cover. Both teams were highly inefficient on offense and very ineffective on defense last season. I don’t expect any huge improvements this season, but I do see some value in Eastern Michigan at +14 today.
Oklahoma -7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Finally, I have a pick on a big, top 25 matchup. My system has Oklahoma beating FSU by 10+ points. Per my ratings, Oklahoma had the 7th most effective defense last season. They are only returning 4 starters on the defensive side of the ball, but so is Florida State. I give Oklahoma the edge on defense, and home field advantage should give Oklahoma the necessary spark to pick up the win and cover this spread. My prediction is that Oklahoma wins this game 34-21.
Iowa State +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Some analysts believe that Iowa is a National Championship contender, but I beg to differ. Iowa played in a plethora of close games last season, and I don’t expect that to change much this season. The only thing I expect to change is Iowa’s good fortune. Look for Iowa to accumulate 3 or 4 losses this season. My system has Iowa winning by no more than a TD today. Both Iowa and Iowa State had very effective defenses last season, ranking 12th and 13th respectively according to my ratings. Iowa State should show improvement this season, especially on the offensive side of the ball with 8 returning starters. Look for Iowa to be tested and win a close one by the score of 23-16.
Tennessee +11.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Dooley will have his hands full tonight against #11 Oregon. Unlike many analysts, I think Tennessee is ready. They have 7 starters returning on a defense that was deceptively good last season. Yes, they have undergone a lot of changes, but most of these changes should provide Tennessee with a more stable program. Tennessee has a very young offense, but they will have the advantage of playing this game at home in front of 100,000+ orange clad fans. My system has UT losing by no more than a field goal tonight. I would not be surprised if the Vols pulled off the upset and gave pollsters something to talk about. I predict that Tennessee wins this game 31-28 and breaks into the Top 25 next week.
Overall Record (6-4-0) +1.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-2) +1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-1) .9 Units
Total Unit Based Record (11-9.9-0) +1.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.63%)
Cincinnati +2 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): Both Cincinnati and NC State are returning 13 starters from last season, but the main change that you will see tonight is no Brian Kelly on the Bearcat’s sideline. My system has this game capped at Cincinnati -3. My main concern is the 10 sacks that the Bearcats have allowed in the first two games of the season. If they can’t protect the quarterback this could be a long night. Hopefully the ACC’s struggles will continue in out of conference matchups tonight against the Big East. Good luck and enjoy this Thursday night matchup!
Overall Record (6-5-0) +0 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0) 0 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-1) -4.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (3-2) +1.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-2) -.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (11-11-0) +0 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (50.00%)
Today, my system has 9 picks, but due to lack of time, I only have write-ups for my system’s top two picks. Please forgive me and trust that due diligence has been done on each pick. Enjoy the games today, and remember that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system’s lines will get more and more accurate as we progress through the season. Below are my picks:
Arkansas +2 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): Going into the 2010-2011 college football season, I had Arkansas finishing 2nd in the SEC West and above Georgia in the overall SEC rankings. This is great time to take advantage of a bad line. I don’t have many 5 Unit Pick’s, but when I do, I’m usually right (just look at my 2009 record). My system has the fair value line at Arkansas -6. Arkansas has a much improved defense this season (ranked 5th in defensive effectiveness, per my ratings). Plus, Arkansas’s offense is converting 50% of their 3rd down attempts this season. Look for Mallett to have a big day against a Georgia defense that has struggled to get off of the field on 3rd down (allowing teams to conver 40% of their 3rd down attempts). Take advantage of the 5 Unit Pick and enjoy a great start to your day! The Razorbacks will leave Athens with a big “W” today!
Arizona -2 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Very rarely do I have a 5 Unit and a 4 Unit pick on the same day, but there is a lot of value on today’s card. This will be a nice nightcap. The Wildcats have revenge on their minds against a team that is much OVERATED! The Hawkeyes have managed to fool pollsters, but they can’t fool my system. The public likes Iowa, while the odds makers like Arizona. Look at the line movement in this matchup. My system has this line capped at Arizona -7. Per my ratings, Arizona has the 3rd most effective defense in the country and their offense is converting greater than 60% of their 3rd down attempts. These are telling statistics. Combine all of this with a hostile environment, and you get a Wildcat victory. The Wildcat’s win tonight and jump Iowa in the polls next week!
Maryland +9.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
ECU +20.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Minnesota +12 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Tennessee +13.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Air Force +16.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Clemson +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Michigan State -3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (11-9-0) +10.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-1) -.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2) +7.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-6) -4.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (26-15.4-0) +10.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (62.80%)
Week 3 was good to us, and I'm looking to start Week 4 off with a bang. Below is my Friday night pick:
SMU +17 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): At the close of last season my system had a game between these two teams on a neutral field capped at TCU -15.5. Currently, my system has this game capped at TCU -11.5. Thus, there is some value in this line. Both teams return 9 starters on the offensive side of the ball, which should prove pivotal in this matchup. My two concerns are TCU’s ability to protect Dalton (TCU has allowed just 2 sacks this season) and convert 3rd downs (TCU is converting 60% of their 3rd down attempts). Fortunately, SMU is allowing just 2.7 yards per rush this season, which should help create 3rd and long situations. Then, this SMU defense, which has racked up 9 sacks this season, must step up to the challenge and put pressure on Dalton. This should be a good game, and I fully expect TCU to win by no more than 2 touchdowns. Good luck and get ready for another big college football weekend!!
Overall Record (11-9-1) +10.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-1) -.4 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (6-2-1) +7.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (2-6) -4.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (26-15.4-.2) +10.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (62.50%)
My system is starting to heat up, and I fully expect another big day in college football. Unfortunately, I don’t have time for full write-ups today, but I have provided analysis for my biggest pick. With kickoff quickly approaching, my picks are posted below:
Kentucky +14 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Tonight’s game is a trap game for Florida, as they look ahead to their big game against Alabama next Saturday. I have Florida winning this game by less than a touchdown. Kentucky has improved since last season, while Florida is still searching for an identity. In my opinion, the key will be Kentucky’s ability to run the ball and keep the speed of Florida’s offense sitting on the bench. Thus far, Kentucky is averaging 6.1 yards per rush, which is eighth best in all of college football. My system shows that on a neutral field Kentucky might be able to sneak away with a “W”. I don’t expect that tonight, but stranger things have definitely happened. Good luck!!
Boston College +4 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
NC State +8 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Central Florida +7 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Stanford -4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Nevada -4 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Cincinnati +14 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
South Carolina +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (16-12-1) +10.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0) +5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-2) -4.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-7) -2.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (34-23.1-.2) +10.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (59.34%)
Texas A&M +3 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): Tonight, we have a match-up between two unbeaten Big 12 teams. The masses are on Oklahoma State at -3, but my system has the fair value line at Texas A&M -1.5. Texas A&M has been dominant on the defensive side of the ball allowing teams to convert just 24.1% of their 3rd down attempts and rush for a mere 2.16 yards per carry. It is critical that they continue this dominance tonight against a very good rushing team in Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State is averaging 5.33 yards per rush, which sets up very manageable 3rd down situations. We will see strength against strength tonight, but I have a feeling that Texas A&M will be able to force just enough 3rd and long situations to disrupt this Oklahoma State offense and pull off the upset. Good luck to all of those that stray from the herd and take the underdog tonight!
Overall Record (16-12-2) +10.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-2) -4.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (2-0) +6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-7) -2.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (34-23.1-.7) +10.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (58.82%)
Utah State +3.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): BYU will be on UPSET ALERT tonight, as they travel to Logan, Utah, to take on the Aggies of Utah State. Granted BYU has played a tough schedule thus far, but this is a defense that is struggling to stop anyone. BYU has given up an average of 433.2 yards per game. In addition to allowing teams to rack up yardage, this defense has not been able to get teams off the field on 3rd down. In fact, their opponents are converting 46.9% of their 3rd down attempts. Utah State’s defense is allowing teams to convert a more reasonable 37.7% of their 3rd down attempts. My system has the fair value line at Utah State -7.5. Thus, I will predict that Utah State pulls off the upset and wins by a final score of 28-21. Good luck tonight and get ready for a big weekend!
Overall Record (17-12-2) +13.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (1-2) -4.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (3-0) +9 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-3-1) +7.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (5-7) -2.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (37-23.1-.7) +13.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (60.86%)
Today, I have a full card. My system is finally hitting on all cylinders, and I fully expect a big Saturday. Both 4 Unit Picks were on the verge of becoming 5 Unit Picks, but several minor variables prevented the upgrade. Below are my picks with analysis on the two 4 Unit Picks:
Indiana +10 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Not only does Indiana cover the 10 points today, but there is a good chance they walk away with a “W”. Michigan may be looking ahead to next week when they will square off against the Spartans of Michigan State. All eyes will be on Robinson to see if he can bounce back from last week’s knee injury, but in my opinion, the quarterback to watch in this game will be Chappell. Chappell has thrown 9 touchdowns and 0 interceptions this season. If he can avoid turning the ball over today, the Hoosiers may stun the Wolverines. I have this game capped at Indiana -3, which should shock most people. I predict that Indiana will pull off the upset and win by the score of 33-27. Laugh if you want to, but 10 points is way too many points to give this Hoosier team at home with Chappell at the helm.
Arizona State +3.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Yes, Arizona State will be playing in a hostile environment with only 8 returning starters from last season, but this is a team that is full of potential on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. The Beavers will have trouble getting Arizona State off the field (Arizona State converts 43.1% of 3rd down attempts and Oregon State allows opponents to convert 58.7% of 3rd down attempts). These stats don’t bode well for the Beavers. Also, Arizona State will likely have a great deal of success running the ball against an Oregon State defense that allows 4.79 yards per rush. Look for Arizona State to rely on their running game to eat up clock and move the chains on 3rd down. My system has this game capped at Oregon State +2. Don’t be surprised when Arizona State pulls off the upset.
Clemson +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Virginia +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Illinois +16.5 (risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Army +6 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Boston College +2.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Stanford/Oregon Under 65.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Tennessee +16.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
NC State +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Maryland -9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Toledo -4.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Oregon -6.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Dam I forgot to keep up with you this year. I see that you hit the ones you hammered this week. Keep up the good work.
Overall Record (22-20-2) +9.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (4-2) +5.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-6-1) +.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units
Total Unit Based Record (50-39.6-.7) +9.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.37%)
Rutgers +5.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Tonight, I have my first pick of the week. Defense wins big games, and this Rutgers team has a dominant defense. Per my ratings, Rutgers has the 5th most effective defense in college football. They allow just 2.71 yards per rush and opponents only convert 23.5% of their 3rd down attempts. Combine these stats and you get a team that allows opponents to score just 12 points a game. My system has this game capped at Rutgers -5, and I predict that Rutgers pulls off the upset by the final score of 23-17. Good luck and enjoy this UPSET ALERT!
Shahbucks- No worries. My system is just now starting to heat up. Good luck and enjoy the picks! Let me know if you want any insight on any specific games.
Overall Record (23-20-2) +12.7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (5-2) +8.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (7-6-1) +.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (7-10) -4 Units
Total Unit Based Record (53-39.6-.7) +12.7 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.81%)
Arizona -8 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Arizona is dominant on 3rd down, both offensively and defensively. Arizona converts 46% of their 3rd downs on offense and allows opponents to convert just 31% of their 3rd downs attempts. In contrast, Oregon State struggles on 3rd down converting a mere 29.8% on offense and allowing opponents to convert 54.8% of their 3rd down attempts. This could spell disaster for the Beavers today. My system has the fair value of this line at Arizona -14.5. Look for Arizona to force 3rd and long situations then force the Beavers to punt or make a mistake and commit a turnover.
LSU +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): This is today’s UPSET ALERT! My system has this game capped at Florida +1.5. Florida has the edge on offense, but LSU has the advantage on defense. LSU is allowing just 2.28 yards per rush this season, which forces teams to throw the ball. Also, LSU has 16 sacks. This could spell trouble for Brantley who as looked far from spectacular this season with just 6 touchdown passes and 3 interceptions. Look for this to be a defensive battle with limited scoring. I predict that LSU pulls off the upset by the score of 20-17.
Toledo +39 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Simply put, THIS LINE IS OFF! The spread on this game should be Boise State -24 at the very most.
Pittsburgh +6 (Risking 2.2 Units t Win 2 Units)
Washington State +36.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Arizona State +1 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Minnesota +22.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Indiana +23 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Tennessee +11 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Army +1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
San Diego State -5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Missouri -11.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Utah -6 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
I'm on you three unit picks and Tenn +11
Overall Record (30-25-3) +13.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (6-4) +4.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-6-2) +4.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-13) -3.3 Units
Total Unit Based Record (64-49.5-.9) +13.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.94%)
Louisville +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Louisville has a very balanced offensive attack, but the key to tonight’s game will be their defense’s ability to get pressure on the quarterback. Cincinnati’s offense has allowed 19 sacks this season, while Louisville’s defense has recorded 18 sacks this season. Look for Louisville to exploit this advantage and bring pressure on 2nd and 3rd down. Thus far, Louisville’s defense has allowed teams to convert just 26.2% of their 3rd down attempts, and I don’t expect this trend to change tonight. My system has this game capped at Louisville -4. Good luck and enjoy tonight’s UPSET ALERT!
Last edited by TheKnuckleballer; 10-16-10 at 12:26 AM. Reason: accidentally messed up my record
Overall Record (30-26-3) +10.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (3-2) +3.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (6-5) +1.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (9-6-2) +4.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (11-13) -3.3 Units
Total Unit Based Record (64-52.8-.9) +10.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.38%)
Kentucky +5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): All eyes are on the Gamecocks this weekend. Can Spurrier’s team handle the pressure of being in the spotlight after defeating Alabama last Saturday? Kentucky has played well most of the season, and this is their opportunity to make a statement by beating an unpredictable South Carolina team that typically struggles on the road. Kentucky has done a great job protecting Hartline this season, allowing just 3 sacks. They must continue this tomorrow as they face a South Carolina defense that has forced 19 sacks this season. Also, Kentucky must find a way to get South Carolina off the field on 3rd down. Thus far, South Carolina has converted an impressive 55.2% of their 3rd down attempts. If Kentucky can do these two things consistently they will have a chance to win this game. My system has Kentucky outgaining this South Carolina team by about 75 yards tomorrow and pulling off the upset by the score of 34-28. Thus, I am putting South Carolina on UPSET ALERT!
Syracuse +1.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Vanderbilt +14.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Iowa State +22.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
San Diego State +1 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Duke +19.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Ole Miss +20.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Maryland +14 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Army +7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Oklahoma State +3 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
UTEP +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Utah -20.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (37-31-3) +12.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (1-0-1) +4.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (7-8) -5.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (11-6-2) +8.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (14-15) -2.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (78-64.9-.9) +12.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.24%)
We have a big card filled with underdogs today. This will likely be the largest card of the season. My system has 17 picks, one of which is 5 Unit UPSET ALERT! Below are today’s picks:
Missouri +3 (Risking 5.5 Units to Win 5 Units): Missouri has all of the ingredients to pull off the upset tonight. The Tigers are returning 19 starters, and they have the most effective defense in college football (per my ratings). Missouri’s defense is allowing just 10.8 points per game, which should prove to be critical against Oklahoma’s potent offense. Oklahoma is converting 47.1% of their 3rd down attempts, which could pose a problem for Missouri, but according to my system, the Tigers should be more than up to the challenge. My system has Missouri winning this matchup by the score of 30-21. Enjoy today’s UPSET ALERT!
Iowa State +21 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Syracuse +13.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Tennessee +16.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Vanderbilt +12 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Minnesota +9.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Purdue +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Duke +27 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Ball State +11.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Kansas +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
North Carolina +6.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Rutgers +12.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Indiana +13.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Navy +6.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Houston +8.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Kansas State +6.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Washington State +36.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (45-40-3) +9.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (9-10) -6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-11-2) -.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (18-17) -.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (95-84.7-.9) +9.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.60%)
Louisiana Tech +37.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): The “experts” have this spread wrong. My system has tonight’s line at Boise State -23 with Boise State winning by the score of 41-18. Louisiana Tech’s defense gives up a ton of yardage, but they have held their opponents to just 26.6 points per game. That may seem like a lot, but I don’t foresee them giving up more than 50 points tonight, which means that Louisiana Tech’s offense only has to score 14 points to cover. This a line based entirely on public perception. Meaning this line is inflated, because everyone and their mother will be on Boise tonight. Good luck to those that follow me and fade the public!
Overall Record (46-40-3) +12.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (10-10) -3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-11-2) -.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (18-17) -.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (98-84.7-.9) +12.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.38%)
Below is tonight’s pick, but I encourage you to check back tomorrow morning for Saturday’s card. Should be a good weekend for some football. Good luck!
Connecticut +6 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Overall Record (47-40-3) +15.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (4-2) +7.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (11-10) 0 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (12-11-2) -.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (18-17) -.7 Units
Total Unit Based Record (101-84.7-.9) +15.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.13%)
Thus far, we have had a great week, and I expect that to continue today. We have a full card, and I hope you enjoy the picks. Good luck!
Baylor +7.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Texas is coming off of a tough loss against Iowa State last Saturday. Unfortunately, they have to play a Baylor team that has a very potent offense led by Robert Griffin III. Griffin has 14 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, and he is completing 70.9% of his passes. This spells trouble for Texas. Also, Baylor’s defense is deceptively effective. In fact, my ratings have Baylor’s defense ranked 35th in effectiveness. This should be a very close game, but my system has Baylor winning by the score of 26-24. Thus, this is today’s UPSET ALERT!
Virginia +15 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Vanderbilt +20.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Minnesota +25.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Tulsa +8.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
UL Monroe +16.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Louisville +9.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Tennessee +17.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Kansas +18.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
UTEP +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Central Florida -7.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Arizona -9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Maryland -6 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Missouri +7.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
New Mexico State +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (56-46-3) +20.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-2) +11.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (12-12) -3.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-11-2) +3.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (23-21) -.1 Units
Total Unit Based Record (117-95.7-.9) +20.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.78%)
Below are my system's picks for Thursday and Friday. I hope you are enjoying the winners, and I welcome all input. Good luck to all that follow!
Georgia Tech +12.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): I wish we had caught this line when it first opened at +14.5, but there is still some value in this line at +12.5. My system has this game capped at Georgia Tech +8.5. Look for the Yellow Jackets to rely on their running game to keep this one closer than the “experts” think. Good luck and enjoy the game!
Western Michigan +3.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (57-47-3) +22.3 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (5-2) +11.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-12) -.6 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (14-11-2) +3.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (23-22) -1.2 Units
Total Unit Based Record (120-96.8-.9) +22.3 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.12%)
Texas A&M +3 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): The Aggies will win this game with their defense. Currently, Texas A&M is allowing teams to convert just 28.5% of their 3rd down attempts and they are holding them to an average of 2.98 yards per rush. Combine this with a team such as Oklahoma that has struggled to run the ball consistently (averaging just 3.46 yards per rush) and the favorite could be in for a long day. My system has Texas A&M winning by the score of 30-26. My one concern is that Johnson won’t get enough protection. Thus far, Johnson has been sacked 27 times. That must change tonight if A&M has a chance to pull off the upset at home against the Sooners. Good luck and enjoy the UPSET ALERT!
UTEP +6.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Simply put, UTEP is the better team. They have the 35th most effective defense, while SMU has the 83rd most effective defense (per my ratings). Also, UTEP manages to convert over 50% of their 3rd down attempts. Few teams in the country can match that statistic. If UTEP can continue to protect their quarterback, they should walk away with a win tonight against SMU. My system has the fair value line at UTEP -3.5. Once again, I hope you enjoy the UPSET ALERT!
Army +6.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Hawaii +21 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Idaho +11 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Indiana +17.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Minnesota +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Purdue +20 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Vanderbilt +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Northwestern +6.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Arizona +7.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Virginia -1 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Kansas +9 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Fresno State +2 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (63-55-3) +16.5 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-15) -10.5 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-15-2) -1.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (25-23) -.3 Units
Total Unit Based Record (134-116.6-.9) +16.5 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.28%)
Below is tonight’s pick. I hope you enjoy the game, and I will be back later this week with more college football picks. Good luck!
Bowling Green +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Overall Record (63-55-4) +16.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-15-1) -10.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-15-2) -1.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (25-23) -.3 Units
Total Unit Based Record (134-116.6-1.2) +16.2 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.22%)
Idaho +34.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units): Idaho will definitely lose tonight’s game, but they will lose by less than the “experts” predict. My system has the fair value of this line at Idaho +20. Per my ratings, the Broncos have the 10th most efficient offense and 9th most effective defense in college football. Also, Idaho has allowed their quarterback to be sacked 30 times this season, while Boise State’s defense has forced 31 sacks this season. These stats combined with the fact that Boise State averages 47 points a game on offense would lead you to believe that Idaho will struggle to cover this spread. My system disagrees. I have Boise State winning by the score of 38-17. Good luck and enjoy the action as we gear up for a big Saturday!
Overall Record (63-56-4) +14 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (13-15-1) -10.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (16-16-2) -3.6 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (25-23) -.3 Units
Total Unit Based Record (134-118.8-1.2) +14 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (52.76%)
I think today is going to be a great day. Good luck and enjoy the picks!
Texas Tech +15.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Texas Tech and Oklahoma are very evenly matched on offense. In fact, their offensive stats are almost identical. The question is can the Red Raiders get a few stops on 3rd down and force the Sooners to punt? Texas Tech’s inability to make stops on 3rd down paired with the Oklahoma’s fast paced offense, designed to wear down opposing defenses, scares me, but my system has the fair value line for this game at Oklahoma -10. My prediction is that Oklahoma wins by the score of 35-25 and fails to cover the 15.5 points.
Northwestern +9.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Cal +19.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Central Michigan +14 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Indiana +22.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Minnesota +21 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Southern Mississippi +10 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Purdue +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Kansas State +13.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Colorado +2.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
San Diego State +27.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Washington State +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Utah -5.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Kansas +35 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Oklahoma State -5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (75-59-4) +32.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (16-16-1) -5.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-17-2) +8.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-24) +.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (159-125.4-1.2) +32.4 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.67%)
Thursday night provided us with a much needed NFL victory with the Bears pulling off the “upset” againt the Dolphins. Now we look to kick off our college football action and roll into Saturday with a couple of W’s under our belt. Enjoy the game!
Fresno State +30 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units): Boise State is 7-2 ATS this season. Thus, odds makers have been forced to inflate their lines (especially home lines) to reflect their success ATS and account for public perception. My system has the fair value line for this game at Boise State -14.5. This paired with several other variables makes this a 3 Unit Pick. Look for Fresno State to focus on time of possession in an attempt to shorten this game and keep Moore on the sidelines. The blue turf may be intimidating, but I think that Fresno State has more than enough fortitude to keep this game within the number. Good luck!!
Overall Record (75-60-4) +29.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-2) +19.2 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (16-17-1) -8.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (23-17-2) +8.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (27-24) +.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (159-128.7-1.2) +29.1 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.04%)
Maryland +3.5 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Per my ratings, Maryland has the most efficient offense in college football. Look for that to be the deciding factor in tonight’s game. My system has the fair value line for this game at Maryland -7, meaning that Florida State should be put on UPSET ALERT! My one concern is the Seminole’s ability to convert 3rd downs, and Maryland’s inability to get off the field on 3rd down. Florida State converts 50% of their 3rd down attempts, while Maryland’s defense allows team to convert 40.2% of their 3rd down attempts. This must change in order for Maryland to pull off the upset tonight. Good luck and enjoy today’s college football action!
South Florida +3 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Indiana +10 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Virginia +7 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Iowa State +11 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Kansas +24 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Wake Forest +14 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
UTEP +17.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Tulane +18.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Army +8.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
NC State +2.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Rutgers +13.5 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Overall Record (78-69-4) +10.9 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-3) +14.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-20-1) -15.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-21-2) +1.4 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (28-25) +.5 Units
Total Unit Based Record (165-152.9-1.2) +10.9 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.71%)
Last week was terrible, and we are off to a slow start this week going 0-3 in NFL action on Thursday. My system has a proven track record, and I fully expect to finish in the black in both college football and NFL this season. Please don't panic. Remember this is a marathon not a sprint. We still have 7+ weeks of NFL action and plenty of Bowl games to finish with a nice winning percentage this season. Good luck! Below are Friday's picks:
Arizona +19 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Alabama -4 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit): The much anticipated Iron Bowl is finally here. Alabama and Auburn fans alike argue about the outcome of this game all year. Today, the outcome will be decided on the field. At a neutral site, my system has the fair value line for this game at Alabama -4, but with home field advantage my system has the fair value line at Alabama -8.5. This is due in large part to Alabama’s defense, which is the 2nd most effective defense in all of college football (per my ratings). Can Alabama stop Cam Newton? Highly Unlikely! Can Alabama slow down Cam Newton? My prediction is YES! Look for Cam to account for no more than 3 total touchdowns tomorrow (rushing and passing). This should be a fun game to watch. Good luck and enjoy the rivalry game action this weekend!
Overall Record (78-70-5) +9.6 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (2-0-1) +9.5 Units
****4 Unit Picks**** (7-3) +14.8 Units
***3 Unit Picks*** (17-20-1) -15.3 Units
**2 Unit Picks** (24-21-3) +1.2 Unit
*1 Unit Picks* (28-26) -.6 Units
Total Unit Based Record (165-154-1.4) +9.6 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (51.50%)
Below are today’s Rivalry Game picks. Please understand that I will likely be back with three more picks for this evening’s games, but I am finishing up some late analysis. Good luck and enjoy the football!
Virginia +23 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
South Florida +12 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Maryland +2 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Tulane +11 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Kansas +24.5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
Western Kentucky +13 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
UConn -2 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Cal -7 (Risking 1.1 Units to Win 1 Unit)
Added Games:
Houston +9 (Risking 4.4 Units to Win 4 Units): Per my ratings, Houston has the 23rd most efficient offense, while Texas Tech offense is ranked 66th in efficiency. This paired with the fact that Houston converts 52.7% of their 3rd down attempts should be enough to keep Houston within the number this evening. My system has Houston winning by the score of 33-31. Good luck and enjoy this shootout!
Idaho +10.5 (Risking 3.3 Units to Win 3 Units)
Notre Dame +5 (Risking 2.2 Units to Win 2 Units)
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