The majority of my college football handicapping is spent analyzing "totals". Few bettors seem to do just that so I believe it's easier to spot soft numbers. While doing my handicapping though, I can't help but to come across some side plays that seem attractive. For me, side bets are only half what I play on my totals. That said, I'm going to start the season off with the following Thursday night play....
USC -21 over HAWAII
It's been a long offseason for the Trojans. Between the Carroll departure, the recruiting violations, the probation, the Heisman scandal, and then Kiffin making his entrance like a bull in a china shop....it's been a mess. But make no mistake about it, this program is still loaded with talent. What better way to get that foul taste out of their mouth then to annihilate the Warriors. Hawaii is breaking in a brand new offensive line. Those kids have their work cut out for them against this talented Trojan D. Anyone who knows Kiffin knows that he's a bully. His boys can name the tune here and they will......a total blowout! Say, 45-10.
Boyz, the remainder of my plays this week are.....
MICHIGAN -2- over UCONN
I aim to do one of three things when I slap down money on college football: Bet on a really strong team, Bet against a really bad team, or Bet into a very favorable situation. Michigan is not a strong team, UConn is, by no means, a bad team....but this is a very favorable situation for the Wolverines. Gotta think it's gonna be tough for the Huskie's to steal one at the Big House against a desperate, albeit talented, Michigan squad. Coach Rodriguez has had a few of his own recruiting classes now and no longer has an excuse why his spread offense ain't spreadin'. My money says the Wolverines start the season off on a good foot and put up some numbers in this one. UConn won't go easy, but the winning ticket belongs to the home team.
OKLAHOMA STATE -15- over WASHINGTON STATE
See rule #2 from above. The Cougars have been terrible the past few years. Putrid. The Cowboys were hurt by graduation but still gotta believe their guys can put a whoopin' on Wazzu. Pickens Stadium might be a little rowdy on a season-opening Saturday night. Ok State owns the ground and the air and wins comfortably.
(Double Play) NEBRASKA -37- over WESTERN KENTUCKY (Double Play)
It's sometimes not smart to give up over five touchdowns before opening kickoff. In this one, I think it is. The Hilltoppers are probably the worst D1 team in the country. Nebraska, meanwhile, is bringing back 15 players from that juggernaut which closed so strong last year. Even without Suh, the Cornhusker's D figures to be among the best in the land. W. Ky will NOT score in this one. Nebraska steamrolls 'em by over 50.
FRESNO STATE -2- over CINCINNATI
Cincy brings back a lot of players from last year's wagon, but a couple of notable graduates are QB Pike and Coach Kelly. The Bearcats are gonna miss those guys in the Dog House on this west coast Saturday night. I expect a shootout, both teams probably scoring into the 30s.....but the Bulldogs get the win and cover.
Hey, it's week #1. A lot of us are just speculating.
I was hoping for a better start with my totals plays (went 4-3, but lost my only double play....bringing it to 4-4). Ah well, we'll get 'em next week. My sides, however, got off to a great start, going 4-1 and hitting my only double play on Nebraska (bringing it to 5-1). Gonna add one more play to this week's action......
BOISE STATE - pick 'em - over VIRGINIA TECH
Realize I'm going against the "smart"? money in this marquee matchup. The Broncos opened up as a 2 1/2 point favorite but the betting line is now pick'em and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hokies favored by kickoff. No worries. I like the Broncos. I would definitely prefer they were playing this one on the 'smurf turf' but we'll play it as it lies. Boise State not only went 14-0 last year but return 20 of 22 starters from that squad, including all their studs. Va Tech is a good team but they're only returning 4 starters on D. The Broncos are really well-coached and they're always prepared. It strikes me that they're too well-oiled a machine for 7 kids to be starting their career against....and under the national lights! QB Kellen Moore will get his Heisman hopes off to a rousing start in this one. Tough fight, but Broncos get 'er done!
Mab, analyzing a few NFL totals right now. The lines are sharper than the college ones so I limit myself to no more than 3 a week. Should have some plays up by Wed or Thursday. Go Broncos!!
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