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Pac 10 Preview - it's wild
I know I'll get some negative (but hopefully not too nasty) feedback sent my way over my predictions, but once I did the write-ups it just seemed to come out this way. It's just my opinion, and this is the way it looks to me. No, I will not be able to answer exactly which games USC will lose, but I think 6-3 is the ceiling for them in conference. They usually play a tougher out of conference schedule. Maybe the early wins will help them on their "mission". I could have moved them even with Arizona and OSU, but decided not to. I think they lose at Corvallis, but if they do beat Arizona then the best thing to have done would have been to put all 3 in a tie for 3rd! Perhpas I'll reconsider?
These are my additional thoughts on how the ratings shook out:
Cal: I know they can be erratic, but Riley is a senior and all they need to do is be in position before closing with a very nice 3 home games.
Arizona: I had no intention of placing them in the top 3 with both coordinators gone but I like the bye before OSU and a couple other situations are good as well. I would not be surprised if they did fall.
USC: Will they get up for every game? No.
UCLA: I think they beat USC, and playing at home helps vs. Arizona.
Stanford: If any team can surprise, this could be it! Luck seems polished for a Soph and the change at defensive coordinator is a plus. I could be wrong here. I do think the UCLA game comes up too early for them, and if I give them a loss at Oregon (revenge), that means Stanford has to rise to challenges at Washington, ASU and Cal late, plus host OSU.
2010 PACIFIC 10
1T. OREGON
As we expected, the transition to Chip Kelly was seamless. In fact, we pegged him to be an upgrade! Oregon’s offense is tough to stop. Yes, the QB is gone, but the system lives on. The Ducks figure to be a major player in the ’10 Rose Bowl race. AREAS TO WATCH: If Oregon was great, does that make the ’09 Boise team underrated? You better believe it! To prove a point, we’re putting Oregon’s run O UP to 5.9 with Boise off the schedule. The ’09 defensive #’s were above average. We’re keeping the projections level with ’09, but will monitor them just in case. It’s possible a true Frosh PK will take over for Flint and his 16-19 accuracy. That is a huge watch area! ACE STRATEGY: After being <50% we were 4-2 here last year, plus our 7th straight bowl win involving the Ducks. The toughest non-conference game is at Tennessee. It can take a bit of time before Oregon’s run O gets rolling, but they’re certainly facing a team in major transition mode. Playing at ASU is similar to the Arizona-Cal game on the same date. Slotting in this wide open conference race begins immediately! They have revenge vs. Stanford so the Ducks could easily be 4-0 in conference with the ASU win before heading to LA to play USC. With 2 weeks to prepare we expect USC to win that one, hence the importance of the early ASU game with road games at Cal and OSU still to come. Oregon is the team to beat if they won at ASU. If not, the race is wide open. The finale at OSU is highly interesting (again). OSU wins often at home but has not yet solved Oregon’s offense. BOTTOM LINE: 10-2 and the Rose Bowl if they beat ASU. 8-4 is clearly possible if that doesn’t happen. Could a key field goal make or miss decide the race?
1T. CALIFORNIA
Jeff Tedford has coached Cal to 8 bowls in 8 seasons. Always a contender, the Bears tend to find a way to eliminate themselves from the title chase just when hopes are at their highest. No one seems to be talking about them this preseason. Can Cal change people’s minds in ’10? AREAS TO WATCH: The defense! Longtime NFL DC Clancy Pendergast has been hired. This is a must watch! Cal lost some defensive talent and we are moving the run D from 3.75 to a projection of 4.15. QB Riley. He’s been here long enough that the 54.7% is far too low. That is the 2nd key watch. ACE STRATEGY: We are 11-5 the past 3 seasons after going 2-2 in ‘09. Cal’s conference point D regressed in ’09. The troops will get 3 warm-ups early, including a game vs. future Pac “12” member Colorado and a stiff run D test at Nevada. Cal needs to run + vs. Colorado but it’s the D that must step up vs. Nevada. We expect at least 2-1 SU as we monitor the pass O% and the point D. Playing at Arizona is a nice test for slotting purposes. Can Cal steal a road win? If so, they should be 2-0 heading to USC. Cal has played USC close but usually comes up short. ASU has the better scheduling situation 10/23, but Cal has the historical edge. We’ll check the morale post USC. OSU has a key bye which could prove troublesome. Still, depending on the Arizona result, the schedule shows games 10-12 all at home! Clancy, are you able to sing (see Buffalo Springfield)? BOTTOM LINE: No one’s talking about Cal, but we are. Beat Arizona (50%) and avoid the trap vs. ASU (still 60+% win shot) and we think destiny is in their hands! Oregon, Stanford and Washington are all good to very good teams, but if Clancy upgrades the D, and Riley upgrades his accuracy, Cal can play in January in Pasadena. 8-4 is clearly in play, but 9-3 needs to be the true goal!
1T. ARIZONA
Arizona finished an improved 6-3 in the Pac 10 but almost achieved 8-1. They lost at Washington due to a deflected pass, and had the Oregon game won 3 times, eventually losing in OT after the Ducks tied things up in the last seconds. Are the Wildcats poised to make a run at achieving their 1st Rose Bowl appearance, or does reality sink back in thanks to that 33-0 bloodletting given to them in the bowl game vs. Nebraska? AREAS TO WATCH: They have at least 2 good RB’s but can’t seem to keep them healthy. If that changes, Arizona will be that much tougher for opposing defenses to stop. The defense will be weaker after losing its top 4 tacklers, and 7 starters overall. Touted transfers and JC players along the DL will need to be charted. The entire special team unit is good. Both coordinators moved on to other jobs. That could be a very big issue. ACE STRATEGY: We’re good here historically, with ‘09’s record 3-2 (plus a bowl loss). Toledo looks a bit worse this year but does have a potent offense and is at home. Games 2-5 are at home, with Cal coming in after the Iowa game, and OSU coming in after the Wildcats have their 1st bye. Arizona is 26-11 ATS off a bye so having 2 byes in ’10 can’t hurt. Arizona is (surprisingly to some people out there) 39-63 as favorites since ’87. ’09 was a rare + for them as a HF, and they’ll have revenge going vs. Washington at home. Games at UCLA and Stanford figure to be hard but a split would be good. Arizona beat USC at USC in ’09. Can they do it again at home? Both Oregon and Arizona have 13 days before they play up in Eugene. The finale vs. ASU is usually a tight game. BOTTOM LINE: Nothing will come easy in the Pac 10. Arizona still needs to learn how to close out games, but the components are there for a strong ’10 IF the new coordinators make as close to a seamless transition as possible. For now, we’ll say they start 2-1, split home games vs. Cal/OSU and split road games at UCLA/Stanford. We have them 6-3 prior to hosting USC. Arizona can win 8 and get to 6-3 in conference but every game will be a challenge.
4. OREGON STATE
OSU is a remarkable 36-17 the past 4 years despite little rated talent and in many cases few returning starters. 2 straight years they returned just 3 defensive starters, yet got within 15 minutes of the Rose Bowl. This year they return 15 starters, 7 on defense. Missing will be a 69% QB. Long called overachievers, is there any way the next achievement can be really special? AREAS TO WATCH: Ryan Katz looks like he has some skill but there is no way he will match Canfield’s accuracy or his low # of turnovers. How close he comes will be a huge key to ’10 success. The defensive stats weren’t great in ’09 but improved mid-year. The schedule is tough but we expect better defensive play in ’10. Sacks were low in ’09. This must change now. ACE STRATEGY: Somehow we are 11-4 lately despite picking them too low in the standings. We get on teams (think SEC, Big 10) who schedule soft, but OSU needs to ease up a bit. TCU and Boise were 25-0 when not facing each other. Both are just as good now and OSU faces both on the road! Katz will be better for it when the conference starts, but the Beavers must avoid injuries vs. these super tough teams. They’ll need to regroup early vs. ASU because in the Pac 10 every game counts! OSU is at a huge disadvantage at Arizona (‘Cats great off rest, OSU issues 1st grass game) so winning at Washington the very next week is almost a must if the Beavers are to remain in the Rose Bowl chase. The bye could work in their favor pre-Cal, but playing at UCLA could be another one where a win is necessary to keep them in the race. Recent history is mixed, so call it a tossup? They’ve won 2 in a row hosting USC and have the ability to make it 3. The final games at Stanford (complete tossup) and hosting Oregon (good, but must solve the Kelly offense) will certainly be challenging. BOTTOM LINE: Other than QB play, perhaps the biggest key is team health. They’ll need all hands on deck to navigate this schedule. We have them at 5-3 not counting games at Washington/UCLA/Stanford and home to Oregon. 7-5 seems logical, which won’t be enough to challenge for the conference title. OSU of course would love to get another crack at Oregon with the title on the line.
5T. USC
Just for the record, Pete Carroll did NOT leave USC due to upcoming sanctions. Pete longed to return to the NFL, and the Seattle situation (organizational control, 2 #1 draft picks, west coast) was just what he wanted. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise! But here we are, with USC on probation, a bit thin in starting experience, and with a coach who has NEVER had a chance to get a proper foundation as the head guy. Sorry, but your 1st NFL HC job should not be with the dysfunctional Raiders. Sorry, but how do you start a college HC career in the SEC if you’ve never experienced the SEC at any level? Let the 7 year clock begin! Miami Fla. went through this and USC will too. This was a great, great run, but the dominance will soon end! AREAS TO WATCH: Monte Kiffin is more than a solid coach, but the run D will suffer a bit as he tends to focus more on pass D schemes. Speaking of the secondary, 4 new starters will be on display. Games will be closer now, and USC’s new PK is a must watch. Will USC get up for “certain” games, leaving them vulnerable at other times since they know it matters little for postseason purposes? ACE STRATEGY: We said this in ’09: Advice to self: Stop going against USC in bowl games! Other than that things were decent. We were perfect in ’09, going 6-0 in the regular season and winning the bowl game! USC catches a break with a non-conference schedule that is easy by their usually tougher standards. Counting lowly WSU, the Trojans should be 4-0 SU prior to a revenge game hosting Washington. Does this mean the won-loss record stays strong in ’10 before falling in ’11? USC has no schedule situations until very late, and their opponents will generally be off tougher games. Given the easy early schedule we can look – if they are not a rush pick (8-2 ATS lately). They play Cal and Oregon at home, and the Duck game is after a bye. The 11/13 game at Arizona is the one that may decide if USC finishes “on top” in the Pac 10. The game at OSU is tougher, but if USC got the Arizona win the damage will not be great. USC-ND has always been a great Rivalry. Win or lose, Kiffin will need to steady the troops before playing at UCLA. That may not be as easy as it seems. BOTTOM LINE: If this was last year’s schedule (at Ohio St., etc.) the early loss would be damaging. Somewhere, somehow USC will lose a game they should win, but early success could be just what the new staff needs in ’10. It sure looks like about 8-1 SU going into the tough final games. 10-3 is possible, but our lean is 9-4 depending on defensive play and PK performance. Yes, this is a more manageable schedule than other teams have, but don’t be surprised if things don’t always do USC’s way. Will there be 3 conference losses?
5T. UCLA
Enough is enough! It’s time to burn the powder blue uniforms and delete the “gutty little Bruin” image. It’s time to act like one of the big boys and play like one as well. USC’s probation has opened the door for equality in Los Angeles. The hiring of Lane Kiffin has to be turned into a major positive for UCLA. Time is of the essence, as the 7 year clock on USC football is ticking. Is UCLA up to the challenge? AREAS TO WATCH: On offense, the point O needs to rise and the run game needs to be more consistent. Of note: UCLA was last (120th) in producing TD’s in the red zone. The DL loses talent and the normally stout run D will be tested. As usual the PK is elite, but the return game will need to be restocked. ACE STRATEGY: The record was 2-3 in ’09 (not counting a bowl win), and 2-6 lately after going 9-1 previous to that. UCLA will face one of the nation’s toughest schedules (we’ll know for sure after we set our power #’s in mid-August). The Bruins are 13-2 ATS in openers, but 8-17 ATS in their initial turf game. K St is tough at home. UCLA has some quality trends hosting Stanford and that MUST be a win now so that we can see progress in “slick Rick’s” 3rd year. Stopping the Houston offense will be a challenge but this has to be a game in which we see the Bruin offense make a statement. The Cal game will be tough, and 12 days later they play at Oregon. Earlier history was good at Eugene but not the more recent history. The margin for error is gone if they lose both, but they’ll have a chance to get back in the race if they hold serve at home vs. Arizona and OSU. They’ve played very well at Washington and been decent at ASU but gaining more than a split is unlikely. They’ll have plenty of motivation to beat USC but must show with the keys that they have the ability to do so. BOTTOM LINE: It’s time to step things up. We have them losing at K St, but in conference they should be able to achieve 5-4, and maybe more if they can steal an extra road win. Winning more than 8 is highly unlikely, but this would be a huge step backwards if they finished 5-7.
7T. STANFORD
READ THIS FROM 2009! Until and unless the PAC 10 gets a leader who knows anything about marketing, this conference will always seem like a national afterthought. Sorry, but the lovely Holiday Bowl has to be the 3rd, not 2nd best bowl opportunity, replaced by a national game on New Years Day! We absolutely hated the previous Pac 10 boss, but the change now is already paying dividends! Meanwhile, Stanford did make some national noise, with RB Gerhart nearly winning the Heisman and the Cardinal moving from 5 to 8 wins. Gerhart leaves but Harbaugh and company
still believe they are in the title chase thanks to a solid Soph QB and excellent special team play. AREAS TO WATCH: We have the run O down from 5.4/225+ to a decent 4.4. The talent is there but we doubt if any of the guys have the ability to be as much of a workhorse as Gerhart was. We never liked DC Lynn. The move to “fire” him was a real good one. Vic Fangio is a nice hire that could make things a whole lot better for the D. We’ll check progress often. Progress will come once the Cardinal wins more on the road. With 5 Pac 10 road games and WSU a home game the Cardinal may be 1 year away from having the type of schedule conducive to conference success. ACE STRATEGY: We’re usually 50%, and went 2-1 last year, not including a bowl loss. The 1st PAC 10 conference game involves Stanford, playing at UCLA. How ready will Stanford be in their quest to reverse past issues at UCLA? Harbaugh will have them motivated to play at ND, but we wonder if this game will take too much out of them with a trip to Oregon next, followed by a host of USC. Harbaugh is an emotional guy and the team may go through some seasonal ups and downs due to this. As we’ve already said, the ’10 conference race is so tight, meaning every game counts. Games 8-10 are at Washington (2-0 lately, poor previous), home to Arizona (under 50% SU) and at ASU (poor history). Somehow Stanford needs 2 wins here to remain in the race. Harbaugh’s absolutely horrible 4th quarter decision making (check out the re-kick) cost them the Cal game in ’09. Can they get revenge now? The finale is NOT this game, but instead is hosting OSU. Will either of these teams still be in the conference race? BOTTOM LINE: We loved the over 6 wins last year, but this year is tricky. This team has a real shot to exceed expectations due to the new DC and a solid QB, but the schedule is not easy and the workhorse RB is now in the NFL. Let’s call it 5-4, not counting games at UCLA, and home to USC/OSU. 7-5 seems like a possible final record, which would be decent, but not good enough for the title. Next year the Cardinal will be better and have 5 conference home games. Will Harbaugh be here? Maybe not, as both Ann Arbor and the NFL have their eyes on him.
7T. WASHINGTON
At 1st glance the defensive stats look poor, but Washington actually improved plenty on this side of the ball in ’09. 5-7 was a very nice start to the Sarkisian era and the 5-2 SU home record much more like the olden days. Jack Locker returns for his SR. season. Is Washington ready to return to bowl status? AREAS TO WATCH: Can Jake Locker improve his pass % to over 60? The 58.4% in ’09 was a step in the right direction. The defense lost 2 very good players but some depth returns. What changes, if any will we see on this side of the ball? ACE STRATEGY: We’re 9-6 lately (1-0 LY). This is another tough schedule for a PAC 10 team as both BYU and Nebraska are good teams and both are fundamentally sound. Washington would love to split these and go into conference play at 2-1. Having a bye pre-USC is nice, but it still won’t be easy to win on the road. ASU and Washington are similar teams; both looking to improve and move up in the conference. Washington can win this, but the key game is the following week hosting OSU. Like with ASU, both opponents will be in their 2nd in a row on the road! They’ll likely lose at Arizona and at Oregon, but in-between that is a host of Stanford. The final 3 games are a key host of UCLA, a road game at Cal (Cal off Stanford) and the finale at WSU. BOTTOM LINE: Washington has lost their last 12 road games SU. The faster they end that streak the better if they are to become bowl eligible. A 4-2 start is possible, and maybe necessary to eventually achieve bowl status. We think 6-6 is the most likely result, but some defensive improvement, along with continued development by Jake Locker may be needed to navigate the tough schedule.
9. ARIZONA STATE
Treading water? ASU did not hire Dennis Erickson to win 9 games in 2 years. State rival Arizona has caught this once strong program, and ASU has to take notice. New faces are everywhere for ’10, meaning the challenge to get back to what they once were might be getting tougher. AREAS TO WATCH: ASU has a new OC. They scored just 27 points vs. WSU, and no more than 24 in any other Pac 10 game. The 19 average is too low. The backfield is a bit raw and at 1st glance we don’t forecast great #’s. The D has experience up front but not much in the back 7. The seasonal #’s have been good but that could slip in ’10. ASU is going the JUCO route in ’10 and 4 or more are penciled in as starters. How will that turn out? ACE STRATEGY: Things have been going well for us in ASU games, although we were just 1-1 in ’09. ASU starts with a pair of easy games, giving us and them time to sort out the starting lineups and to check if any budding stars are emerging. Any early defensive issues could mean a long afternoon at Wisky in game #3. ASU has been dominated the last 3 hosting Oregon, but with only 4 conference home games in ’10 ASU is going to need to sneak a win in at home, especially since they have not played well on the road in recent years! At best they’ll probably split road games at OSU/Washington, and then get a bye before staying on the road to play at Cal (3-11 SU at). ASU may need to win its final 2 home games vs. Stanford and UCLA to become bowl eligible. They’ve had success hosting both, and get a week off in-between. The closer is at Arizona, and this rivalry can result in close games. BOTTOM LINE: They will be 4-4 or 3-5 SU to the key game of ’10, hosting Stanford. A win in this game triggers + trends vs. UCLA. We feel a loss ends all bowl hopes. The JUCO’s and the new OC hold seasonal clues, but call this about 4-8 if they lose to Stanford, with 6-6 possibly in play if they win that game.
10. WASHINGTON STATE
WOW! We said no team was as pathetic as this one in ’08. Their 49 power # was by far the worst we’d seen of a BCS school. Only North Texas and Idaho were rated lower of all 119 colleges. In ’09 they again finished with a 49 power #. We disagreed with the selection of Paul Wulff when he was hired and obviously still disagree. Will anything positive occur in ’10? AREAS TO WATCH: The sack ratio was 13-53. No one got more than 2 sacks in ’09. The run ratio was 2.9/86+ to 6.075/241.5. You can’t win many games with those #’s. The once proud pass D% was nearly 67 in ’09. No quick fixes to these areas appear on the horizon. ACE STRATEGY: 2008 was nice! The one-sided stats snuck up on others this time as we went 6-0 (5-0 vs.). Lines were inflated in ’09 and we were 0-1. Games 1-3 are at Ok St. (rebuilding, but at home), Montana St. (7-4 LY, so not a guaranteed win), and at SMU (huge Mustang revenge off an amazing 4 interceptions for TD’s). Conference win shots are home to Arizona (30% shot), home to sometimes erratic Cal (30%, Cal off a RG at OSU), and home to Washington (amazing 3 weeks to prepare for this one, with Washington having no weeks off). The remaining 6 games look way too tough. BOTTOM LINE: 1-11? Woody Allen once used the line “Name 3 President’s” in an early film of his. WSU football seems as irrelevant as that line was when uttered (it was during a love scene in a subtitled movie). 2 wins seems like the most the Cougars may achieve unless weather and/or major letdowns equalize things.
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