For a brief introduction to some of the terms used in the preview please look at the Big 12 South thread. Thanks.
1. ALABAMA
Alabama tipped its hand with a great ’08 season and won it all in ’09. All teams have one scare and the Tide did get lucky vs. Tennessee (missed PK), but the Tide was much the best the rest of the way and dominated Florida in the SEC title game. Now officially the “hunted”, can Alabama make it 2 titles in a row? AREAS TO WATCH: The regular season turnover ratio was +16. Alabama has always been on the + side but that figure is tough to duplicate. The D loses 9 starters! This team has been #1 in recruiting lately so it will be interesting to see what drop might occur. We have the run D moving from 3.15 to 3.55. PK Tiffin went 30-35 in ’09. His replacement may be a true Frosh! ACE STRATEGY: We apologized for our 2-5 record in ‘08. Unfortunately, we were just 2-3 in ’09. The Tide is 41-22 using 2-way rush data. Can that continue? Hosting Penn St. represents a rare “strong” non-conference opponent. Both teams have much to replace on D, but PSU also has to replace its QB. As others have documented, the Tide will face 6 teams in ’10 that will have extra time to prepare. This can’t be a good thing. Negative trends exist at Duke and at Arkansas, and Florida seeks revenge. Additional negative trends exist if the rested opponents are coming off SU wins. Alabama itself is 18-9 ATS off a bye and both the Tide and LSU have byes pre the 11/6 matchup. Alabama also moved its game vs. Georgia St. (new program, ex-Tide HC Curry there) up 2 days to give them more time before playing Auburn. BOTTOM LINE: 10-2, somehow? Teams who wish to beat Alabama need a strong run D, run-pass diversity and good special team play. Arkansas, Florida and LSU may be the toughest games SU, with S Car next. We still think the Tide can win the West. SPREAD NOTES: Many will be negative, so hopefully we can adjust if necessary. – as a DD RF at Duke with line setting clues. – at Arkansas at -4 or > if Arkansas is meeting ’10 standards. – 10/9 at S Car if S Car is off a SU win. – as a DD RF 10/23 at Tennessee if the Vols are off a SU win. – as a DD HF 11/13 vs. Miss St. if they are a rush pick. For balance purposes, when these conditions are not met we’ll look + with the Tide when a rush pick of their own.
2T. ARKANSAS
We expected and got 7 wins here in ’09 as Arkansas improved in all statistical areas under the “weasel” Petrino. Even bigger things are expected in ’10. AREAS TO WATCH: 17 starters return, including touted QB Mallett. We’ve been critical of him but will change our mind if he becomes more accurate. His deep ball is good. We’d move the run O up to 4.9. Is that too high? We will show modest improvement in defensive numbers although we think the staff is average. Repeating a random +11 fumble ratio is highly unlikely. ACE STRATEGY: After going 2-0 last year, plus a bowl win, the regular season record moves to 8-4. Arkansas will not face Florida in ’09, but does have a rough stretch in games 3-6 which include at Georgia, home to Alabama, neutral vs. A&M and at Auburn. There is a bye pre-A&M. The roughest games after that are at S Car, at Miss St., and home in the finale to LSU. The team is decent (21-14) as a rush pick, but other than that it may be hard for us to decipher how they will fare game to game in ’10. We’ll watch the run O, pass O% and turnover ratio for clues. We’ll also keep an early eye on the fragile point D. BOTTOM LINE: A split of games 3-6 means they can achieve 7-2 SU not counting the late games which seem like tossups in our eyes. 8-4 is our best guess, but if Mallett does improve and the point D hangs tough 9-3 is in play. SPREAD NOTES: As the notes above suggest, we’re not really sure how this season will go. For now, we’ll say – as a DF RF at Miss St., and – as any RF if Miss St. is a rush pick on 11/20, and – as a HF vs. LSU on 11/27, although we may remove that play should Arkansas be a rush pick.
2T. LSU
LSU has had a nice run of things the past few years but like Tennessee under Fulmer, is there a downturn in process? Seldom do the Tigers get blown out, but other SEC teams seem to be catching up to them. With only 9 or 10 returning starters here for ’10, will we see additional slippage? AREAS TO WATCH: LSU never lost when favored in ’09 (1 upset win) so despite 4 losses last year was by no means a disaster. Still, they are 26-60 ATS as a HF, and 32-55 as a DD favorite. They are also – when not a rush pick (34-20 ATS). With so much depth gone we have a run D concern for the 1st time in many a season. They lost WR/TE talent and their return specialist. The D returns just 4 starters. ACE STRATEGY: Even with the help of the negative trends our performance here has dipped to 50% over the past 8 seasons. The ’10 season opens with a good one in Atlanta vs. N Car. LSU was extremely lucky to defeat Miss St. in ’09. They own the Bulldogs at home, at least SU. Another good game comes next when LSU goes non-conference hosting West Virginia. The Tigers have had issues hosting Tennessee but this will be the Vol’s 1st road game and new coaches often are not up to that challenge. The tossup game 10/23 at Auburn is followed by a week off before a host of Alabama. The final 2 games are hosting OL Miss (9-6 SU, few covers) and at Arkansas (close games and close history). BOTTOM LINE: Just 8-4 or maybe 7-5? LSU could achieve more if the run O and run D exceed our expectations. There are too many tossup games on the ’10 docket however for LSU to exceed 8 wins considering the talent lost (+ the improvement of other teams). SPREAD NOTES: - as a HF 9/18 vs. Miss St, and more so if a DD HF. – as a HF or 3 or > vs. WV 9/25. – as a DD favorite vs. Tennessee 10/2, especially if not a rush pick. – as either a DD home favorite and/or if OL Miss is a rush pick/RU of any kind 11/20. + as a RU 11/27, with rush data preferred to be in LSU’s favor here.
4. MISSISSIPPI
OL Miss was the “it” team in ’09. Teams in this category who are not used to top 10 preseason status often fail to meet expectations. OL Miss went 8-4, losing 3 times SU when favored. Houston Nutt is a proven winner but ’10 could be an even stiffer challenge with 27 lettermen gone including 12 starters. AREAS TO WATCH: QB play. It may not be perfect but Snead was a flop and his 20 interceptions won’t be missed. Replacing do everything player McCluster will be much more of a challenge. That, and a young OL has us lowering the rush projection. Close game status will rest on the shoulders of a new PK. ACE STRATEGY: We are 16-14 over a 9 year span, including just 1-3 in the last 2 years. Once again the schedule is very kind, with the big boys of the SEC East avoided and with few challenging non-conference affairs. In fact, the only test in that regard is hosting September dangerous Fresno. The Rebels could easily start out 5-0 SU without anyone knowing if they’re really that talented! Playing at Arkansas and then hosting Auburn will give us a clue. The final 3 games are at Tennessee (poor history), at LSU (close games) and the revenge game hosting Miss St. This IS manageable! BOTTOM LINE: The defense appears weaker and the offense/special teams will miss McCluster, yet 7 or 8 wins seems logical. They figure to be about 6-3 heading down the stretch, so if they can gain a split at Tennessee/LSU 8-4 is within reach. We’ll be watching the run O, pass D% and turnover ratio for seasonal clues. SPREAD NOTES: Play the dog/rush pick either way if that combination occurs 10/30 vs. Auburn. + as a RU/rush pick 11/20 at LSU.
5. AUBURN
Gene Chizik satisfied the masses with a 5-0 start and a late upset of OL Miss, but there are some warning signs. The point D was 21 or > in all games after the opener and the run D stayed high. Many key players return so perhaps the Tigers are just getting started in their ascent up the SEC ladder. AREAS TO WATCH: A touted JC QB takes over for Chris Todd. Will he be as careful (22-6 TD-int ratio) as Todd was? Plenty of RB talent remains but they lose their top guy. The D returns its top 5 tacklers. Can’t the point D improve? This is our biggest watch area. ACE STRATEGY: We’ve enjoyed Auburn action over the years, and went 2-1 here LY. Once again the team has just 4 road games. Clemson is the only tough non-conference game. Auburn will have an early Thursday test before that at Miss St. The last time they were there (’08) the score was 3-2! We’ll know more about Chizik if he beats the ‘ball coach” and S Car on 9/25. We’ll also learn more when they travel to Kentucky to play an average Wildcat team. Auburn should be at least 4-2 SU prior to key home games vs. Arkansas (dog series) and LSU (close and often incredible defensive games). Game 11 is hosting Georgia. Auburn wants revenge but has not had a good SU record in this series as a host. The Tigers generally play Alabama tough but winning SU at their site is not very likely. BOTTOM LINE: We have them closer to 7-5 than 8-4, but 8-4 is in reach if they survive Miss St and win 2 of 3 at Kentucky and the home games vs. Arkansas/LSU. Returning depth says that’s possible, but only if the point D improves. We list them 5th (conference), but would NOT be surprised to see them as high as 2nd. SPREAD NOTES: - as a HF of 3 or > vs. Clemson 9/18. + vs. La Monroe 10/2. Take the dog +3 or > either way hosting LSU 10/23 (Auburn ++ if also a rush pick). – as a turf RF (4-19 ATS in that role) at OL Miss 10/30, especially if not a rush pick.
6. MISSISSIPPI STATE
That was a surprise! MSU returned 10 starters for its new coach in ’09 and we projected 2 wins. They won 5, and were unlucky not to win 7! 14 returning starters come back for ’10. Did Mullen’s team catch everyone off guard last year or are they truly poised to move into bowl contention? AREAS TO WATCH: MSU lost a nearly 1400 yard RB (Dixon). They also lost a 58.8% QB, something very rare here! The new QB is a run type and the feature RB may be from the JC ranks. 4 OL return so maybe the run O won’t fall that far. The team won’t miss Lee’s interceptions, which was 14 in just 221 attempts. Relf (the new QB) however, threw 3 in just 41 attempts. MSU was always a rush pick in ’09. Will they be – if not a pick now considering teams in this category who have trouble passing make nice “play against” types? ACE STRATEGY: The previous 3 years were good. We went 1-2 in ’09 which we consider just as good considering how wrong we were about their ’09 performance (we of course were not the only ones surprised by their progress). Games 2-4 are not easy with MSU hosting Auburn and Georgia in between a road trip to LSU. If they can steal a win in 1 of these games they can head to Houston (revenge) in week 6 at 3-2 SU. Houston may be an impact team in ’10 but if MSU’s backfield is as good or nearly as good as in ’09 (but more careful) then the game could be close. Assuming a loss, MSU can still get to 5-4 SU if they take care of business vs. UAB and Kentucky. Playing at Alabama and OL Miss won’t be easy, but the week 11 game hosting Arkansas (4-5 SU, 8 dog covers) could be for win #6 and a bowl berth. BOTTOM LINE: We’ll say they do get an early upset win, meaning they go 5-7 if they lose to Arkansas and 6-6 if they win that game. Either way, it sure looks like MSU has turned the corner and will be more competitive in most every game they play in the tough SEC. SPREAD NOTES: + with line setting clues 9/4 vs. Memphis. + as a DD dog 9/18 at LSU. + as a rush pick vs. Alabama 11/13, and/or + as any dog if off a SU win. + as a dog and a rush pick 11/20 vs. Arkansas. For balance sakes we will lean vs. 1st when and if they are NOT a rush pick in other contests, with an eye out as to how well the backfield is playing.