For a brief introduction as to the use of some of the terms in the preview please see the Big 12 South Preview.

1. NEBRASKA

Bill Callahan who? Bo Pellini put almost everything back in order, coming within a disputed second of a BCS berth. His greatest accomplishment may have come after that. Most teams fall flat after sliding down to a December bowl. Instead, Nebraska destroyed Arizona 33-0. Is there one last great title run before the much coveted Huskers move to the Big 10? AREAS TO WATCH: The one area NOT fixed by Pellini was the run O. 4.15/149 hardly reminds us of Osborne’s teams. Can this move up (projected to 4.5 in ’10)? No defense gets better by losing Ndamukong Suh and a couple of other stars. Can Nebraska stay close to ’09 #’s? Some schedule situations may not be in their favor, but Nebraska is 35-19 ATS off a SU loss. In the sad but true category, opponents were just 12-24 kicking vs. the Huskers. That is a somewhat random stat which will go up, although this team wishes the last second kick by Texas was one of the misses! ACE STRATEGY: After going about 50% the past 4 years we rebounded with a 4-0 regular season (lost bowl game). We’ll watch the run game early, along with any unusual defensive issues. Once in conference, we’ll have to see what strain, if any the team feels as it begins to exit the Big 12. Early tests are at Washington and Locker and at dangerous K St. A split of these games moves them to 4-1 seeking revenge hosting Texas. Missouri seeks revenge 2 weeks later. Nebraska travels to ISU and A&M in November. The A&M game may be difficult, but with 8 turnover revenge vs. ISU that should be a SU win. Surprisingly they have won just 4 of the last 7 hosting Colorado. BOTTOM LINE: With all RB’s returning, we think the run O holds the keys to a 10-2 season. The offense will be asked to do more while the defense regroups a bit early. There are some sticky spots and Suh is hard to replace, but less than 10-2 will be considered a disappointment. SPREAD NOTES: We had no notes here in ‘09 and went 4-0! We enjoyed the 2/1 odds to win the North offered last year. We have them – if a DD favorite at Washington 9/18. They will be + 10/23 vs. OK St if off a SU loss. The same holds true when facing Missouri 10/30. The late lean could be vs. Colorado if off a SU win, and if Colorado is a rush pick, with line setting clues thrown in.

2. MISSOURI

Missouri surprised us by playing well in ’09 after taking many graduation losses. Most of the raw stats were not better, but the Tigers showed no major flaw, and their PK was outstanding. Missouri stays in the Big 12 after thinking they were in the Big 10 mix. As it turned out, these Tigers are considered a role player to the big guns of the conference. Missouri is always going to be able to secure December bowl berths, but can this program ascend to the next level? AREAS TO WATCH: Speaking of stats, the pass D% is too high. We have it improving in ’10? Are we accurate? We’ve also moved the run O from 4.15 to 4.5. Rush data has been 33-23 lately, and usually 50% or better. We’ve tracked some potential games to use the data. Can they fare better as a HF (30-42 ATS)? ACE STRATEGY: We did not play on any Missouri games in ’08 and went 2-4 last year. Our 5 year regular season record is not impressive, but we are 3-0 in their last 5 bowl games. Last year they upset Illinois. This year they rightfully return to the favorite’s role after winning all 5 at the neutral site. The easy early schedule means 4-0 to Colorado, and now we will stop to analyze the stats to see if they are progressing as they should be vs. these opponents. The 10/16 game at A&M is huge if they want to contend for the North title. Missouri last played Oklahoma in ’08. They lost twice to the Sooners in ’07 and would like to beat them (at home) for revenge. Whatever the result, they must regroup to travel to Nebraska the next week, and then play TT right after that. Are they up for these challenges? Closing games vs. K St (50%, but K St off a game vs. Texas), at ISU (can win at) and the neutral finale vs. Kansas are easier. BOTTOM LINE: 9-3? The stats say 8-4 but the schedule and team depth say 9 is possible, even if they win just once in the tough 4 game stretch. Can the pass D% improve, or will that be the ’10 liability? SPREAD NOTES: We have a lean – as a DD HF to SD St 9/18 but that is not official at this point. We’ll certainly be looking at rush data to guide our selection 10/16 (A&M) and 10/23 (Oklahoma). + as a rush pick 11/6 at TT. + as a rush pick 11/13 vs. K St.

3T. KANSAS STATE

Can Bill Snyder coach? The run O improved nearly 50 yards per game. The run D went from 5.4/225 to 3.85/116. The pass D% made it back <60%. They lost QB Freeman yet threw for the same completion %. Coaching here is never a quick fix. Can the 70 year old HC move K St back to the upper level of the Big 12? AREAS TO WATCH: We are not forecasting major statistical advances this time. As we said in ‘09, Snyder built his team on prized JUCO’s. We noted his 1st JUCO crop looked less then impressive, with the exception of RB Thomas (“promising however and fits Snyder’s style”). Will this crop be better? If so, maybe the defensive stats can edge closer to those achieved in the past. Replacing Banks and his 4 KR TD’s won’t be easy. ACE STRATEGY: 2 years ago we said we, “missed Bill Snyder”! Last year we welcomed him back after going 6-8 ATS in the Prince “error”. This year we come off a 4-1 ATS mark, more consistent with our 83% previous performance! Does the opener hosting UCLA HAVE to be a SU win to show progress? A win could trigger 4-0, and with Snyder’s past success in home games, maybe a madhouse 10/7 (Thursday) hosting Nebraska! K St’s 1st true RG is at Kansas after that. They have not been successful in this role. Texas is tough but they have to come to K St. The season’s most meaningful games may be road games late at Missouri (Snyder won here) and at Colorado (not as good). The finale is also on the road (No. Texas) and could be a motivational issue. BOTTOM LINE: 7-5? They may struggle to get there is they lose vs. UCLA, or may have a chance to exceed that # if they win the opener and gain confidence before playing Nebraska, Texas, and the late road games. Watch the defense carefully! SPREAD NOTES: + if 4-0 and a HU/rush pick vs. Nebraska 10/7. – if off a SU loss and Kansas is a rush pick 10/16. + as a rush pick 10/30 vs. OK St. – if Missouri a rush pick 11/13 (especially if K St beat Texas). Be careful in the finale at No. Texas (lean vs.) if K St is off a SU loss.

3T. COLORADO

Dan Hawkins is now just 16-33 in his tenure at Colorado. With the Buffaloes poised to join the Pac 10 in 2012, will Hawkins be along for the ride? AREAS TO WATCH: RB Performance. Stewart was acceptable but his 4.1 per carry average is not special enough. With the OL returning intact either he must deliver or someone else must emerge. Turnovers. 18 interceptions are way too many. Colorado also needs to win on the road (no true road wins since ’07) and improve on defense. ACE STRATEGY: We rebounded from a 2-3 ’08 to go 4-1 last year. Colorado as usual starts with rival Colorado State, and they have underachieved in this series. 9/11 brings a run D test vs. Nevada, while 10/2 sees Georgia come to town. Colorado would love to split these 2 games and be 3-1 heading into conference play. They host Baylor and TT in October. If improved, they sweep these games. Bowl eligibility likely hinges on games at Kansas (new coach), Iowa State (12-1 SU as host) and Kansas St, all in November. With chances to be favored, or nearly favored in all 3, can they take care of business? BOTTOM LINE: 6-6, and maybe a new coach in ’11? We’ve never been fans of how Hawkins manages game situations, and until they stop turning the ball over this team will continue to beat itself. Even at 4-3 we could still see a 2-3 finish. 17 starters return. Is there any way the staff can exceed our expectations? SPREAD NOTES: - 9/11 at Nevada is a RF and 0-1 SU. + as a HU vs. Georgia 10/2. + as a HU 10/23 vs. TT. – as a DD favorite 11/13 vs. ISU.

5. KANSAS

Turner Gill returns to the Big 12 and he’ll be a welcome site in Lawrence, Kansas. How fast can the Jayhawks turn the page from the not so kind ways of former HC Mangino? AREAS TO WATCH: The roster is not stocked with talent. Losing accurate QB Reesing may mean the pass game takes a step back in ’10. The OL is deep, so perhaps a true run attack will emerge. The DL is a worry. We’re projecting Kansas to decline vs. the run, at 4.55 per carry. New coaches who are not rush picks are good to play against. That should be the case here. Finally, we’re not fans of OC Chuck Long. What can he bring to the KU offense? ACE STRATEGY: We’ve slumped here, going 50% last year in ’08 and 1-3 in ’09. Unlike ISU, this schedule is easier, with TT, Texas and Oklahoma OFF the docket, and only run oriented GT added. Our plan is to look at the point O, run to pass %, run D and QB% post North Dakota St. for some clues. Did the run D hold up? If not, GT will run right through them on 9/11. So. Miss lost plenty on offense. Can’t the KU D hold up on 9/17? Playing at Baylor won’t be that easy with Griffin expected back, and KU is 0-3 there anyway. Hosting K St. was ‘fun” post Bill Snyder, but now he’s back. Holding serve at home here and next vs. A&M (0-3 SU last 3 at home) is advisable if KU is to return to bowl status. There’s no reason why KU can’t be highly competitive at ISU (dog series), hosting Colorado (4-2 last 6) and later, hosting OK St., even though they’ve never had success vs. the Cowboys. For the 4th straight season the Jayhawks finish in KC vs. Missouri. The 3 previous games have been wild! BOTTOM LINE: We were right about their demise last year (seasonal unders). 6-6 is possible, but even with the easier schedule, we don’t see 7 wins. In fact, 5-7 is our 1st guess due to the QB change, our dislike of Chuck Long, and KU’s very average defense. Turner Gill however, may be a fine hire for the long run. SPREAD NOTES: - 9/11 vs. GT if the run D was soft in week one. – as a RF at So. Miss 9/17. – as a RF at Baylor 10/2. + 10/16 vs. K St if off a SU win. – as a RF 10/30 at ISU, and maybe – at any odds if not a rush pick. – 11/20 if not a pick vs. OK St. (KU and Gill possibly off an emotional game back at Gill’s old school, Nebraska).

6. IOWA STATE

It was essentially a coaching trade when Paul Rhodes came from Auburn to replace Gene Chizik, who left for Auburn. Despite lots of ground to make up, ISU got a good HC and somehow the Cyclones not only went to a bowl, but won it to finish 7-6. Repeating that feat may not be as easy, with ISU down at least 7 starters on defense while adding Texas, TT, Oklahoma and Utah to their schedule. Ouch! AREAS TO WATCH: ISU has no bye weeks in ’10. Will this lead to fatigue in November? How will they keep points down in ’10 with most of their top tacklers and sackers gone? ACE STRATEGY: We are 16-8 here, but just 6-8 lately. Rush data has given us vs. plays in the past, and we’ve isolated 5 games where we will play against ISU if their opponent is the rush pick. We’ll be patient early, looking at how the defense performs vs. No. Illinois, and Iowa. Another good run D test will come vs. Snyder’s K St. squad. If TT is in a transition year of its own then maybe ISU can pull an upset at home. Utah has 2 weeks to prepare for ISU. Next come Oklahoma and Texas, both on the road. How fair is that? If they escape in one piece they get to host Kansas and its new staff 10/30, then they stay at home vs. revenge-minded Nebraska. ISU has to hope that they have at least 4 wins now so that games at Colorado and hosting Missouri are meaningful. BOTTOM LINE: As we said in ’09, Rhodes is the 1st ISU HC we’ve liked, maybe ever! He’s got some good JC’s entering the program, but mostly on offense. 5-7 would be pretty good in our eyes. 4-8 is the more likely ending at this point. SPREAD NOTES: + as a DD HU to TT 10/2. – if not a rush pick 5 times (10/9-Utah, 10-16-at Okla, 10/23-at Texas, 11/6-Nebraska, 11/20-Missouri).