1. 01-07-08 04:36 AM #1
    BigBollocks
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    Ohio State Wins Outright

    Yes I know the Big Ten sucks. Yes I know OSU is 0-8 vs. SEC teams. And I'm well aware of last year's game vs. an SEC opponent too (it's generally tough to forget losing a $100+K future fyi lol).

    I think OSU wins outright tonight. LSU is just too error prone and shaky for my taste, and in my experience you generally want the better prepared and under control team in college big games. I think LSU starts a lot of drives 1st and 15 and lets OSU start a lot of drives 1st and 5. I think LSU overpursues time and again defensively, and OSU's weapondry makes it count against them. I think Flynn/Perilloux screw up substantially more than Boeckmann, and LSU has 2 or more turnovers than OSU. The more I think about it, the more I like OSU on this stage. I couldn't think of polar opposites in terms of the type of team makeups you'd want to back and lay in tonight's atmosphere, and can't pass up getting OSU at solid + money straight up.

    I'll wait until a few minutes before kickoff, and will try to get the best price I can on the Buckeye ML. Call it 27-14. GL to all, it's been a great season regardless...
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  2. 01-07-08 06:14 AM #2
    tevari
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    here's to you
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  3. 01-07-08 07:59 AM #3
    LT Profits
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    This thread makes me very sad, espeically since I could see it happening.

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  4. 01-07-08 08:12 AM #4
    2Pac
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    No, they don't win outright.

    They don't cover, either.
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  5. 01-07-08 08:46 AM #5
    BigBollocks
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    Quote Originally Posted by 2Pac View Post
    No, they don't win outright.

    They don't cover, either.
    Great logic. Hope this goes the way of some of your other plays.

    You worry about lying and trying to scam books out of chump change, and the rest of us will handicap for real money. Keep us posted on your recoup efforts from your BetEd scam 2pac...

    All others in agreement and dissentment alike welcome...
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  6. 01-07-08 08:48 AM #6
    BigBollocks
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    Quote Originally Posted by LT Profits View Post
    This thread makes me very sad, espeically since I could see it happening.

    Thanks Tevari, GL tonight...

    LT if I go down tonight you'll be the first person I'll think of and congratulate. I know you'll breathe a huge sigh of relief if the nightmare scenario for you doesn't occur. GL...
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  7. 01-07-08 11:26 AM #7
    Seattle Slew
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    I'm with you 100 percent on all points. Michigan's victory over Florida is a red flag for LSU, just like USC's victory over Michigan last year was a red flag for OSU. Michigan could not get a first down against the OSU defense, then put up 41 and could have put up 55 against Florida.

    Big Ten had a bad year, but Wisconsin played right with Tennessee as well in another matchup with top teams.

    OSU, 23-10.
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  8. 01-07-08 11:39 AM #8
    pokernut9999
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    Lsu defense has been shredded of late and vastly overrated unit. I like my scenario where all the teams that passed GA in the polls that last week will lose.

    So far Va Tech and Oklahoma down and LSU next.
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  9. 01-07-08 12:08 PM #9
    Tigers1230
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    Look at a healthy LSU defense from earlier in the year. I think LSU wins.
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  10. 01-07-08 12:16 PM #10
    BuddyBear
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    I agree too. I just played OSU +4. The idea of Les Miles--one of the worst coaches out there--winning a national championship is just too nauseating for me to consider.....lol.

    I think OSU comes out very motivated much the same way WVU and Kansas did after hearing all the negative press about them.

    Good luck BB....by the way, clear your inbox been trying to pm you since the Rose Bowl!!!
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  11. 01-07-08 01:38 PM #11
    BigBollocks
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    Thanks guys (Seattle, Pokernut, Titans, and BB), great insight from some of the best cappers on the board....

    I just cleared out my inbox BuddyBear, and am always ready for any bright strokes of genius passed my way! I had no idea there was a 100 PM storage limit. Thanks for the heads up...
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  12. 01-07-08 01:39 PM #12
    hanco21
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    I like Ohio State too but I saw a very interesting prop bet.

    Boeckman over 16.5 completions. Think I am going to git this one hard.
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  13. 01-07-08 01:55 PM #13
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Quote Originally Posted by hanco21 View Post
    I like Ohio State too but I saw a very interesting prop bet.

    Boeckman over 16.5 completions. Think I am going to git this one hard.
    I just saw that at the Hilton. I may ride along with you on that one...
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  14. 01-07-08 02:00 PM #14
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Another interesting prop at the Hilton is "Will either team score 3 straight times?"

    Yes -185
    No +165

    There's some value in No, I believe.
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  15. 01-07-08 02:00 PM #15
    B1GER1C828
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    Quote Originally Posted by BigBollocks View Post
    Great logic. Hope this goes the way of some of your other plays.

    You worry about lying and trying to scam books out of chump change, and the rest of us will handicap for real money. Keep us posted on your recoup efforts from your BetEd scam 2pac...

    All others in agreement and dissentment alike welcome...

    haha ya i saw that post and laughed myself i thot "wow he really has some good points y 2 choose them haha!

    im with u tho bro i like the ml alot and ur reasons r good good luck buddy
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  16. 01-07-08 02:04 PM #16
    MonkeyF0cker
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    Well I'm with you on OSU at +4.5, BigB. Although I don't know if you want that since I'm 12-18 on sides this bowl season.
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  17. 01-07-08 02:05 PM #17
    nevadaside
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    Quote Originally Posted by BuddyBear View Post
    I agree too. I just played OSU +4. The idea of Les Miles--one of the worst coaches out there--winning a national championship is just too nauseating for me to consider.....lol.

    I think OSU comes out very motivated much the same way WVU and Kansas did after hearing all the negative press about them.
    BB,
    Any thoughts on 1stH Under24?
    The cob web factor is mostly what I'm thinking here....just curious what you may think about this if anything at all.
    Was going to take a shot but up here it's (-120).

    GL to us w/the +4!
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  18. 01-07-08 02:47 PM #18
    charlie64
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    The thing that worries me is the speed of LSU.I know everyone talks about speed,but I gotta tell you I was at the Auburn-LSU game,and that defense flys to the ball.Ohio St. definitley has the incentive and the want to.Losing as bad as they did last year could work in a big way to their advantage.
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  19. 01-07-08 03:28 PM #19
    BuddyBear
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    Quote Originally Posted by nevadaside View Post
    BB,
    Any thoughts on 1stH Under24?
    The cob web factor is mostly what I'm thinking here....just curious what you may think about this if anything at all.
    Was going to take a shot but up here it's (-120).

    GL to us w/the +4!
    hmm...not sure which BB you are referring to here, but I can try to answer. I am not really a 1H player in any sport but recently I've been trying 2H bets mostly unders and there seems to be a lot of value there I am finding.

    Well, as for the under in the game, money has been pouring in all week on the under. Recently, DOC sports released the under as one of his 7 bets in the Money Talks invitational. The top oddsmaker in LV went on record and said the under was the side he liked in the game saying the total should be closer to 42 than the original 50.5 that was released.

    I would lean toward the under personally, but I am not going to play it. As for the 1H i don't have much of an opinion but perhaps I'll consider the 2H under when it becomes available. Both these teams are known more for their defense...but at the same time, both teams are capable of scoring non-offensive TDs which would scare me if I had the Under. Moreover, everyone knows about Les Mile's tendency to go for it on 4th down....

    I'll lean to the under though today but won't make it a play. Just Ohio State +4 today for me. May add more later....
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  20. 01-07-08 03:45 PM #20
    nevadaside
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    thanks for your thoughts Buddy, it was you I was asking but forgot about the threads owner being BB as well.
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  21. 01-07-08 03:51 PM #21
    GODFATHER
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    Wish you luck

    This game has me undecided. I do like both teams and have respected there wins amd loses. I have made money and lost with both teams. I think I will tease the over/under on this game and wait till half time to jump in.

    Mike

    Quote Originally Posted by BigBollocks View Post
    Yes I know the Big Ten sucks. Yes I know OSU is 0-8 vs. SEC teams. And I'm well aware of last year's game vs. an SEC opponent too (it's generally tough to forget losing a $100+K future fyi lol).

    I think OSU wins outright tonight. LSU is just too error prone and shaky for my taste, and in my experience you generally want the better prepared and under control team in college big games. I think LSU starts a lot of drives 1st and 15 and lets OSU start a lot of drives 1st and 5. I think LSU overpursues time and again defensively, and OSU's weapondry makes it count against them. I think Flynn/Perilloux screw up substantially more than Boeckmann, and LSU has 2 or more turnovers than OSU. The more I think about it, the more I like OSU on this stage. I couldn't think of polar opposites in terms of the type of team makeups you'd want to back and lay in tonight's atmosphere, and can't pass up getting OSU at solid + money straight up.

    I'll wait until a few minutes before kickoff, and will try to get the best price I can on the Buckeye ML. Call it 27-14. GL to all, it's been a great season regardless...
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  22. 01-07-08 04:01 PM #22
    SBR Lou
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    BigBollocks, I agree with you all the way bro. Let's cash this tonight.

    I'm on OSU ML and I've got one unit on their team total over 21.5.
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  23. 01-07-08 05:05 PM #23
    PerfecTrader
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    Been a fun CFB year fellas and it's been nice kickin it with ya. Hope we can end on a good note and since I'm up a bit I decided to go wolvy-berzerk-style. I dislike LSU bigtime and hope the Buckeyes crush them like Tulsa did to the poor Falcons last night. Best of luck to you all

    [2060] COIN LAND TAILS -115(oh yes peeps, I bet on the flip)
    [3491] 1Q OHIO STATE +½-135
    [3491] 1Q OHIO STATE o9½-120(teams combined)
    [1491] 1H OHIO STATE +2-110
    [2065] T BOECKMAN PASS COMPLETIONS o16½-115
    [491] OHIO STATE +4-110
    [491] OHIO STATE o48-110
    [491] OHIO STATE +145
    CFB PARLAY (2 TEAMS)
    [491] OHIO STATE +4-110
    [491] OHIO STATE o48-110
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  24. 01-07-08 10:44 PM #24
    danno331
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    Good effort - just no go for that OSU outright win. Like your analysis though- will look for insights on NFL playoffs
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  25. 01-07-08 10:47 PM #25
    Tigers1230
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    well, just shows yankees from the north and pac-10 lovers what happens when you bet against a top notch SEC team.
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  26. 01-08-08 05:29 AM #26
    BigBollocks
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    Sorry for anyone who jumped onboard on this one. I don't run from a loss, and congratulate anyone on LSU and/or the over as you were quite simply on the right side...

    I agree that the Big Ten cheats themselves in the longrun by the piss poor calibar of competition. Feasting on a diet of slow, poorly coached, weak sisters might let you coast to the championship game (I have no doubt Michigan or OSU will get a free ride back next year), but simply doesn't prepare you for the likes of an SEC school who has played world winning talent every game of the season...

    It was still a great season with a lot of underdog cashes, and one game at the end of the season with proper money management doesn't come close to taking away all the profit with a bunch of those ML dogs vs. the #2 teams and such this year...
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  27. 01-08-08 05:29 AM #27
    BigBollocks
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    Cheers to everyone, it's been great discussing football with better minds all year...
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