heineken 1/1 bowls - biggest play all season with writeups( 5-1 12/31 )
HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE!
ytd 5-1 + 3 3/4 units
florida gators -10.......................2 3/4 units
wisconsin badgers +125...............................3/4 unit
arkansas razorbacks +3.5.............................3/4 unit
texas tech -5.5..................................... .....3/4 unit
illinois illini +14.5................................... ......1 unit
hawaii warriors +10..................................... 3/4 unit
florida tt o/20...................................... ......1 unit
florida -102h.................................... .........3/4 unit
usc -6.5 2h...................................... .........1 unit
usc illinois over 212h..................................1 unit
Florida could arguably be the best team in the entire country but thanks to key losses they are not in the National Championship and find themselves facing a Michigan Wolverines team that is lucky to make it to this season Capital One Bowl. Michigan does not deserve to be in this game and it will show today as the Florida spread offense will rip apart the Wolverine defense and put up points at will. The Gators are led by QB Tim Tebow who has a total of 51 touchdowns both rushing and passing, a NCAA Football record. The Gator spread offense is averaging 9.7 yards per pass attempt this season and led by Urban Meyer, one of the best coaches in the entire country. Michigan will be playing for their head coach Lloyd Carr who will be coaching his final game today against the Gators. If you remember the very first game of the season when Appalachian State came into Michigan with the spread offense and had a mobile quarterback. The Wolverine defense looked clueless and gave up what might be the biggest upset in college football history. Then the next week the Oregon Ducks brought the exact same attack and blew out Michigan. Although they have stepped up their game this season to protect against a mobile quarterback and spread offense attacks today they will simply get overpowered by Tim Tebow who is the highest scoring rushing quarterback in history and a spread offense that produces ridiculous numbers. 50.0 points per game, 9.7 yards per pass attempt, over 4.5 yards per rush attempt the Gators are truly an unstoppable force. Urban Meyer has got his team pumped up in the extended break this December and you can guarantee Heisman Trophy winner Tim Tebow and the Gators will come out and chew up the Wolverines. If you like tons of points and quick scoring drives this is definitely the game for you. Florida will win this game by at least 17 points and leave the Michigan players looking back on a season that included a loss to Appalachian State, Ohio State and Florida in a bowl game.
The Rose Bowl features the biggest point spread of the bowl games this season. USC is a 14 point favorite over the Illinois Illini. Everyone is predicting this game to be a slaughter with the Trojans rolling to yet another Rose Bowl victory. However, I see this game going down in a completely different fashion. Being the biggest underdog of the entire bowl season calls for extreme motivation not only in the 3 weeks leading up to the game but in the hour before the game when head coach Ron Zook will get the Illini pumped up to come out and pull the upset. Already playing the underdog card this season the Illni pulled the upset against the number one ranked Ohio State Buckeyes with wins over Wisconsin and Penn State. Illinois has covered their past 8 games against top ranked teams with winning percentages over 75%. The Illini run a verified spread offense that is run based, Juice Williams will run into the second ranked rush defense that will not know what hit them. Illinois has averaged 266 yards per game and 5.7 yards per attempt on the ground this season. In their first Rose Bowl since 1984 and first bowl game in 6 season the Illini will show up and cover the 14 points and possibly be the Boise State of this seasons bowl games.
Texas Tech had an average season in 2007 winning 8 of their 12 games and covering 6 of them. Virginia posted their best regular season statistics since 1997. Texas Tech is a 5.5 point favorite in this contest, and in the past 10 games favored teams have a 10 game straight up winning streak and 9-1 ATS record. Texas Tech has the leading passing attack in the country gaining an average of 476 yards per game in the air per game, 8.2 yards per attempt. Virginia only outmatches teams by an average of 10 yards per game and won 6 of their games by less then 5 points. Against teams with winning records Virginia is 1-3 ATS this season. Again another team with a spread attack is going to pass all over a team that plays regular defense and offense. Both short passes and long passes will burn the Cavaliers today. Virginia and their controlled run style of play ran by coach Al Groh will not be able to keep up with the Red Raiders. Texas Tech will win this game by a touchdown or more and easily cover 5.5.
Wisconsin will play an SEC team in a bowl game for the fifth season in a row to kick off the bowl action on New Years Day. The Badgers were 4-7 ATS this season while the Volunteers sported a 7-4 record against the spread. Both teams finished the season with 9 wins and are very evenly matched. In the past 8 bowl games Wisconsin is a very profitable 7-1 ATS and have covered their last three as an underdog. Tennessee had to overcome major flaws just to make it to the SEC championship against the LSU Tigers. Before going on a 4 game win streak they were giving up 28 points per game and over 400 yards per game. Senior Quarterback Erik Ainge leads the Tennessee offense and threw for 3000 yards with 29 touchdowns this season. However, Ainge has been a total different quarterback away from home. The Vols are 2-4 SU on the road this season allowing slightly less then 500 total yards and 40 ppg. You can expect more of the same from the Vols as they will lose their second consecutive Outback Bowl to a better Wisconsin team in a high scoring shootout.
above are just trackings and calculations i use in a spread sheet each day to track wagers and bankroll calculations. Figured Id might as well post it on here.
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heineken 1/1 bowls - biggest play all season with writeups( 5-1 12/31 )
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