Big money to be made fading the public.
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Good work here. Something to keep in the arsenal at the start of the weekComment -
Pavy, I appreciate you posting these. It gives me a different perspective to look from. There's never too much info to use. Thanks.
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Thanks Seer.
I don't really cap the games when I post these lines (in fact in one game I didn't know the starting QB was out). What I did was look at the line and try to figure out what the linesman is doing by setting it that way.Comment -
USC -3. Holy trap.Comment -
Great insight here, Pavy.Comment -
What exactly are you looking for? How are the linesman setting the lines that make you suspicious of the play?Comment -
Nice work Pavy, appreciate your sharing!Comment -
I basically look at the match ups. And then see how the line is set up to attract square bets. The line is usually around 3 or 7. If a home team is priced less than 3 then the book is telling you to bet the home team. If the road team is priced more than 7 then the book is telling you to bet the road dog.
But the art is identifying the games that are set up as traps because you have to look at the match ups and do your own due diligence. You can't be blindly picking all the -2.5 or all the +7.5 games on the board as traps. The opening line is the one I look for traps. The closing line doesn't factor in how I pick.Comment -
This is also how I pick games so now that I see it posted I'll know it's end is near...
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traps this week?Comment -
florida state -2
washington +7
oregon state +13.5
how do these traps look pavy?Comment -
pavy come on dude - what, do the lines makers from competing books all get together and say "hey how shall we f\*\*k with em this week?" while snorting coke offa overpriced hoes? or more like geeking out over new laptops.
my understanding, and i may be wrong is that lines makers do the best job that they can (and then square books shade some). but it may appear to joe better (who has very little idea) that 1 team is a lock (because of a million factors that he does not take into account). this might happen 1000s and 1000s of times making 1 team over bet and moving the line. THIS is what can make betting against the obvious choice +EV sometimes. the question is: is it over bet enough to have moved the line enough to have overcome the vig? the sharps know all this and will pound lines back into shape making the under bet teams loose any value that they 1nce had.
Trap, seriously. the only traps here is our own inability to see properly what the true probability of an outcome should be.
whatever dudes - the geeks getting together and fvcking with us is probably more fun anyway. it seems to be a good strategy and i wish you all much success. BOL
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Maybe your understanding of a trap is different than mine. First of all the lines all generate in Vegas by a select group of 5-6 people who do this for a living. Then the rest of the offshore books copy them.
Now lets talk about these linemakers job. Their job is to set the line in such way to attract more square bets on one side. So where they position themselves on the number 3 and number 7 will tell you what type of money they want to attract.Comment -
pavy, u got any trap plays for today bro?Comment -
South Carolina-2.5 is the trap game of the centuryComment -
Thanks for the heads upComment -
Yes, it is! And as a Gamecock, it has me scared to death...
The line opened at -3, which seemed a tad low to me...it's gone to -2.5...
Vegas is BEGGING you to pick USC.
Now, I know they're not right all the time, but they're right a whole bunch of the time.
I hope they're wrong tonight!
DocComment -
On Friday games (yesterday) there were 3 trap games (based on opening lines).
Central Michigan +3.5
Rutgers +3.5
Southern Miss +3.5
Today:
Tulane +8
LSU +3.5
UL Monroe -6.5Comment
he only uses opening line and this game does not qualify sooooooo...pay attention guys.