Originally Posted by
Astro
Are you kidding me?
Boise State -10.5 may be the easiest game all season... the Broncos are easily the better team, as their record indicates, they play in the tougher conference and they have played much better than the Pirates of ECU... the "experts" want to make it sound like this is Johnson vs Johnson, RB vs RB... that is not the case... this is Bronco's QB Tharp against a very, very, very suspect secondary (#22 pass offense vs #115 (out of 119 teams) pass defense)
This is solid rush offense against not so solid rush defense (#29 vs #53)
Also less than stellar pass O against pretty good pass D (#75 vs #37)
Or maybe ECU's key to keeping it within 11 is the rush offense, that has to be it... thats waht I hear from the "experts" that ECU's RB is very good... too bad this guy is overrated... sure he ran for 1200 yards in 12 games, averaging 100 yards a game... but if you take out the Memphis game, which he ran for over 1/4 of those yards in (301) then you are left with pretty good running back, but not someone who can carry a team... especially since his OOC yard total was a grand total of 186, good for only 46.5 yards per game... but even if he was great, the Bronco's still have the 26th best rush defense in the country
Boise State also has the 10th best offense, yards per game wise, in the nation... along with the 5th best scoring O in it, and post a margin of +22.8... ECU? They're 72nd in yards per game, 47th in scoring and post a margin of +0.4
Really the only thing the Pirates have working in their favor is the turnover margin (+1.33), tho Boise still has a decent mark at +0.33
Even if the Broncos turn it over one more time than the Pirates, ECU isnt going to be able to move the ball much, maybe score 17 points if that, while they wont be able to stop Tharp and the high powered Boise State offense...
Plus add in the factor that Boise State has been here before, ECU hasnt been in bowl games consistently, and when they did they constantly lost them
You can also use common opponents as a key, Boise State and ECU have one common opponent... Southern Miss, both played the Golden Eagles at home... Boise State won their game against them by 22... dominating them from start to finish, racking up 506 yards of offense, to Southern Miss' 318, and posting 38 points on the outmanned Golden Eagle squad
ECU? They lost their game against USM by 7, they were outgained by 83 yards (383 to 300) and held to just 97 yards on the ground... the Pirates only managed to put up 21 on the Eagles, while giving up 28... all of this while posting a +2 turnover margin (3 USM turnovers to 1 for ECU)
All of the stats point to a Boise State blow out, but for some reason some people like ECU in this... maybe it's because the "experts" are predicting a decently close game... well I am sorry, Boise State even has the home field advantage in that they play in Hawaii every other year or so, and they are sort of close to the island... ECU is on the complete wrong end of the country, never plays in Hawaii and rarely plays in bowl games... there is a very big difference between WAC and C-USA competition, and the only hope for ECU to even stay in this game is to force atleast 4 turnovers... which isnt gonna happen
If this were a regular season game the spread would be around -21 or -24 for Boise State, but since these are two bowl teams, they automatically set the line close and people buy into the whole hype of the bowl atmosphere and that non-sense
The truth of that matter is Boise State is going to move the ball at will against the poor ECU defense, and ECU is going to have problems moving it against an underrated Boise State D... Boise State rolls in this one
Final Score:
Boise State 52, East Carolina 17
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