[bigboydan]

I see Manitoba is an -11.5 favorite against Saint Marys. I was kinda liking Saint Marys in this game, but after looking at Pinnacle just now. I noticed the vig was outrageously high.

Give me the lowdown on this one fellas.

[dwaechte]

I have been following this stuff all year, though I only started betting come playoff time and have had mixed results.

What I've seen with these games is that the favourite has been getting heavy bets through the week. The line is normally 2-3 points high come Saturday than it is when it opens.

But here's the thing: This has not been justified by the results. I can only speak for OUA(Ontario) action as well as the two semi-finals games last weekend. Here's how it's broken down:

Western at Queens(-6.5): Western 27, Queens 19
Guelph at McMaster(-7): Guelph 25, McMaster 21

Western at Ottawa(-12): Western 23, Ottawa 16
Guelph at Laurier(-8): Guelph 38, Laurier 31

Western(-5) at Guelph: Western 34, Guelph 21

Last week:

Western at Manitoba(-10): Manitoba 52, Western 20
Laval(-9.5) at St. Mary's: St Mary's 24, Laval 2


I figured with small time football like this, the sharps would be way ahead of the books. They have not been. Out of the 7 games I've followed in the playoffs, the favourite has covered in just 2.

For the Vanier Cup, this line opened at Manitoba -11, and it's now at Manitoba -13. I just don't see why.

I watched both games last week, and St. Mary's simply dominated and beat up the #1 ranked Laval team very easily. Laval was supposedly a fair bit better than everyone else, and they got pushed around. Even in the game against St. Mary;s earlier in the year(at Laval), they were very lucky to sneak away with the victory.

The Manitoba/Western game was interesting. Manitoba was all over the Western punter, and a bunch of good breaks had them ahead 31-5 at halftime, despite the fact that I felt Western outplayed them for the first 20-25 minutes of the game.

Some more interesting facts:

- A western Canadian team has not won the Vanier Cup since 1998
- St. Mary's or Laval have won 5 of the last 6 Vanier Cups
- St. Mary's beat Manitoba 42-16 back in 2001, though St. Mary;s coach has changed since then.

What may be factoring in is the crowd. The game is being played at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, where Winnipeg plays Saskatchewan for the Grey Cup just 2 days later. The crowd should be very Manitoba heavy.

So you can obviously see which way I'm leaning. I'm going to wait to see if I can get St. Marys at +14, but if not, I'll be more than happy with them at +13(-105).

Maybe Manitoba surprises me, but I was very impressed with St. Mary's last week, and I think this is going to be a very tough, close matchup.

[Tchocky]

Are any of these games broadcast outside Canada?

[beaneaters]

My understanding is that the St. Marys starting quarterback, a nominee for university player of the year, is out for the game with an injury. That would explain Manitoba being the big favourite. Maybe look into that, but that's what I heard.

[bigboydan]

Thanks for the info fellas. Tis most definitely appreciated

[dwaechte]

My understanding is that the St. Marys starting quarterback, a nominee for university player of the year, is out for the game with an injury. That would explain Manitoba being the big favourite. Maybe look into that, but that's what I heard.

Ahhh.

I meant to mention in my post how I wasn't able to dig anything up on injuries. I will look into that a little deeper.