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Iowa vs. Florida preview
**Iowa vs. Florida**
Outback Bowl, Tampa, Fla.
--Most sports books opened Florida (8-3 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) as a three-point favorite, but that number is down to 1 1/2 at most spots as of Friday. The total is 48 and the Hawkeyes are plus 105 on the money line.
--This is a rematch of the Outback Bowl from two years ago when Iowa crushed Florida by a 37-17 count as a 3 1/2-point underdog.
--Iowa (7-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) played a brutal schedule, losing a pair of early-season games on the road to fall out of contention in both the Big Ten and national championship races. But it responded, as Kirk Ferentz's teams have been known to do, by playing strong down the stretch with five wins in seven games. During that span, the Hawkeyes lost two games by four combined points, failing to hold fourth-quarter leads in both defeats (vs. Michigan, at Northwestern).
--Iowa has a terrific 1-2 punch with quarterback Drew Tate and running back Albert Young. Tate has connected on 63 percent of his pass attempts for 2,482 yards and 19 touchdowns, with just six interceptions. Young ran for 1,300 yards and eight TDs, averaging 5.5 yards per carry.
--Florida failed to win the SEC East for the fifth consecutive season, losing a trio of road games at Alabama (31-3), at LSU (21-17) and at South Carolina (30-22). After leading the SEC in scoring in 2004 and returning seven starters, the Gators' offense was stuck in neutral for most of Urban Meyer's first year at the helm. When UF faced quality defenses like Tennessee, Alabama, LSU and Georgia, it could only muster the following scoring outputs: 16, 3, 17 and 14. The Gators showed some moderate improvement at the end of the year, scoring 22 and 34 against South Carolina and Florida State, respectively.
--On the bright side for Florida, it re-claimed the Swamp after Ron Zook teams went 0-6 against Top-25 foes at home during a forgettable three-year stretch. The Gators were unbeaten at home, finding some solace in the campaign whe they thumped the Seminoles by a 34-7 count in the regular-season finale.
--With the exception of the Alabama game, when Brodie Croyle picked apart UF's secondary, the Gators defense has been outstanding this year. Sophomore linebacker Brandon Siler has been the catalyst, leading a unit that gave up just 24 combined points to Tennessee, Georgia and Florida State.
--Florida quarterback Chris Leak has looked lost at times in Meyer's spread offense, but you can't really tell by reviewing his stats. The junior signal caller has completed 62.9 percent of his passes for 2,361 yards, posting an 18/6 touchdown-interception ratio. Leak's back-up, true freshman QB Josh Portis, decided to transfer after the FSU game due to a lack of playing time (see Bonus Nuggets below). Therefore, junior Gavin Dickey will be the No. 2 QB. Dickey, a star player on the UF baseball team who led Tallahassee Lincoln to a state title as a prep QB, has spent the entire year at wide receiver, but has seen action at QB in the past.
--Florida DB Reggie Nelson is "doubtful" after tearing his MCL at practice last week. Also, DE Ray McDonald is "out" due to the lingering effects of a knee injury suffered in September. On the bright side, senior CB Vernell Brown is "probable" six weeks removed from a broken leg.
--Iowa is 2-1 both SU and ATS as an underdog this season. During Ferentz's seven-year tenure, the Hawkeyes are 22-15-2 ATS as underdogs.
--Both teams have demonstrated a propensity for 'unders' all year long. In fact, Iowa has seen the 'under' cash in all five of its games on the road. The Hawkeyes have seen the 'under' go 7-2 overall.
--The 'under' went 5-2 for the Gators.
--Gamblers might want to place their bets the night before this game. That's because kickoff is set for 11:00 a.m. with ESPN providing the telecast.
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Originally Posted by bigboydan
