[Dr. Funke]

Has anyone researched this?

In the NFL I generally subscribe to the theory of betting on a Home Underdog after the team achieved an upset win on the road.

Dr. Bob turned me on to this after pointing out that:

NFL home underdogs have been pretty good bets over the years after an upset win (173-128-9 ATS since 1980) since such teams tend to play with more confidence in that situation.

Road Upsets from Week 7:

LOU
OREGST
AUB
NAVY
GTECH
OKST
NMEX
AFORCE
TEMP
MIDTENN
ECAR

(Non-Home) Underdogs in Week 8:

AUB (+10) @ LSU


Home Underdogs in Week 8:

Navy (+3) v WAKEF
Temple (+5.5) v Miami-OH

I would think the confidence/emotional factor might be more pronounced in the College game. I picked Air Force over TCU (they won outright) after they upset Utah on the road earlier in the season, but I haven't been researching this closely enough overall to see if there is a trend.

Let's see what happens in particular with Navy and Temple this weekend.

[moneyplays]

I can tell you at least one of those teams is losing this weekend. If you put a gun to my head I would say Temple.

[Dr. Funke]

Two out of Three ain't bad!

[Dr. Funke]

Here's what I found according to this theory for the 2007-08 NCAA season (ATS):

Week 1:

N/A

Week 2:

None qualify

Week 3:

W: AFORCE

Week 4:

W: VIRG

Week 5:

None qualify

Week 6:

W: ECAR
W: MD
W: UTEP

Week 7:

W: MIAMI-OH
W: ND
W: STAN

Week 8:

???????

Of course, now that I found no team has lost under this scenario (8-0 ATS), the theory will collapse like a house of cards.

Conversely - although I casually observed it while looking for the teams above, the teams that qualified in terms of getting an upset on the road the previous week, but were favorites at home the following week tended to lose against the spread as far as I could tell.

[MJFtheGenius]

nice work Dr Funk, this is real good news for me because I liked Temple before I read this.

[Dr. Funke]

Glad I could help.

[LLXC]

1-1

so 9-1 so far this year. not bad!