Originally Posted by
BuddyBear
You know me pretty well by now Ebone, I am more a quantitative/technical handicapper who blends my "feel" for the games when making my selections . I am more interested in numbers/trends/systems and base many plays on that and the OU/TX game falls into that.
I agree whole heartedly that Oklahoma is much better than Texas this year. For Texas to lose outright at home to KSU by 20 is a bit eye opening. I read some reports of the game and I guess KSU did not dominate them as much as the score would indicate and with McCoy suffering some sort of injury Texas was unable to come back.
For OU, they played tough and it was a war and in the end CU beat them fair and square...no cheap call (like in Eugene) or penalties or whatever. OU falls into a really horrible system this week that plays against teams that were 20+ pt favorites who lost outright. They have a horrible ATS in the following week. My feel for this game is mostly that yes it is a rivalry and yes Texas has had the better of it, but OU's early season dominance serves only to inflate this line. Sorry but dismantling North Texas, Utah State, Tulsa, and pulling away late from Miami (FL) do not constitue a dominan team in my opinion and probably one who should not be leaying DD on a neutral site with an inexperienced QB at the helm.
For FIU, it is simple. As far as my records go back (up to the 2000 season) Troy is 15-32 SU on the road and has won only 1 game on the road in that time span by 19+ points (although I dont have their 2000 sechedule available). Additionaly believe it or not, Troy ranks dead last, #119, in the country in defending the run. FIU features a spread oriented offense and has a very talented QB (I forget his name.. Younger I think ????). True, FIU ranks very badly in many offensive categories but is somewhat misleading since they have already played: @Penn State, Maryland, @Miami, @Kansas, & @MTSU. The MTSU is the most mystifying b/c they got down so quickly they had to abandon the run and eventually just gave up in that game. You generally want to fade teams that struggle in stopping the run especially when they are on the road laying points. They are a very bad bet ATS. FIU has the added bonus of playing at home, in a somwhat competive series (3 previous meetings AVG: FIU 12 Troy 21.66) in a game against the defending Sun Belt champs after a miserable performence against MTSU I think FIU will be playing with a renewed enthusiasm even if Troy is the more talented team. But FIU is not very good and does have the potential to be blown out but I am going to take my chances with the Golden Panthers as a big home dog.
For LSU there is not too much to comment on here other than this one of my feel games. They have the #1 defense in the country (170 yd ppg) and while UF features a very strong defense of their own, I feel that coupled with the inexpereince of their defensive unit (only 2 returning starters), an inexperienced qb, a night game in Baton Rouge, a conference game featuring double revenge (i.e. a team that lost outright as a fav last year) I feel it is going to be very hard for UF to win this game. Teams that win the game outright cover at a very high rate. LSU has already shown in their games against VT and SC that they can blow people out real quick...and if anything both those teams have stronger defenses. Moreover, Florida holding on to barely beat OleMiss as 23 pt favorites (winning by 6) and losing outright as a 17 pt favorite at home no less is not encouraging and speaks more to them being slightly overrated even though that is more the stigma that comes with winning that national championship. Florida has a pretty good offense and if they can move the ball, control the line of scrimmage, burn clock and keep the LSU defense on the field then they will probably cover and win the game outright. If they can't do that, I suspect LSU will win and cover.
Good luck Ebone....